9/19 AM -TS Rita Hurricane In 24 Hours - 460 ESE Key West, Will Enter Gulf

[hatrack]

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 235 MILES...
380 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 460 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR. A MOTION
JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND RITA COULD BECOME
A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/191201.shtml?

Tracking Map graphic:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/084708.shtml?3day?large

[Ready4Change]

1. FYI, Rita bears watching, but not Katrina level at this time.

Don't let the upper case letters create needless fear.

Many weather service reports are always in all capital letters. They were some of the first users of computers and telecommunications, back in the days that all printer terminals used nothing but capital letters.

As a result, to denizens of the internet, most weather reports LOOK LIKE THEY ARE SCREAMING! You have to read content to get the info.

Now, when you read a weather report like the one on the Sunday prior to Katrina, THAT should get you worried.

[ET Awful]

2. It will be interesting to see what it does once it hits the gulf and the

the warm waters there. It could be one hell of a storm once that happens.

[Benhurst]

5. "THAT should get you worried." Unless you are

a REAL man like George W. Bush, in which case you can continue to vacation and party.

[KoKo]

3. As of 9:30 a.m. edt The Weather Channel has Rita going for Texas/LA

Border. They've moved their projected forcast away from Mexico. :scared:

[hatrack]

4. Great. Just fricking great

Still, early times. We'll see just how the storm develops.

[halobeam]

6. There is a serious debate whether people should be allowed back in LA,

the levees are temporarily fixed right now. From what I understand, there is concern whether they would hold during a storm, not even a hurricane. I believe everyone has the right to chose to go back home, but knowing the dangers should be required. I would have them sign a waver or something. It really is a matter of "enter at your own risk" and accept you are on your own. This city is not ready to support it's citizens. The citizens should not expect what the city can not possibly provide for yet.

I would consider it a danger to go back right now, without having a way to be forewarned of another coming storm and it's potential. That's part of it, the others, of course are info relating to EPA reports, access to 911, hospital care if needed, running water, electricity, etc.

[hatrack]

7. 9/19 11 EDT Rita 430 ESE Key West Max Sust 65, 994 Mb - Strengthening

EDIT

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST OR ABOUT 195
MILES... 315 KM... SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 430 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND RITA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES
...230 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/191201.shtml

[gulfcoastliberal]

8. Latest Gulf Sat Pic:

[hatrack]

9. 9.19 2:00 PM EDT Rita 380 ESE Key West Max Sustained 70 993 Mb

EDIT

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GEORGETOWN ON GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 165 MILES... 265 KM... SOUTHEAST
OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 380 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH... 23 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS
TUESDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ONBOARD A NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
NEAR 70 MPH...115 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND RITA COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES
...230 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/191201.shtml

[hatrack]

10. 9/19 8PM EDT Rita 315 ESE Key West Max Sust 70 993 Mb Hurricane By 2Night

EDIT

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.0 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES... 225 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 315 MILES...
510 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA HAS WOBBLED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR...IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR ANDROS ISLAND IN
THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS TUESDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/191201.shtml

[hatrack]

11. 5-Day Track Projection, 9/19 5PM EDT

Still tracking slightly west of Houston, but not promising.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/210636.shtml?5day

[Kool Kitty]

12. Not too promising is right.

Isn't the east side of the storm the bad side? (Not counting the eye, of course.) That would put the New Orleans area in danger from winds, right? Not good.

[hatrack]

13. 9/19 11PM EDT Rita 270 ESE Key West Max Sust 70 990Mb - Strengthening

EDIT

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT
120 MILES... 195 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT
270 MILES... 430 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL PASS OVER
OR JUST SOUTH OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT RITA IS GETTING
BETTER ORGANIZED AND IT SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM
FROM THE CENTER. AN AUTOMATED STATION ON ANDROS ISLAND RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/191201.shtml

5-day track basically unchanged:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/025048.shtml?5day?large

[hatrack]

14. 9/20 5AM EDT Rita 160 ESE Key West Tracking WNW Max Sust 70 988 Mb

EDIT

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 160
MILES... 255 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH
...24 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL BE
PASSING NEAR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AROUND MIDDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. REPORTS FROM RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT RITA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES
...195 KM FROM THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/191201.shtml

5-day map now shows very slight westerly trend in track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/084912.shtml?5day

[hatrack]

15. 9/20 8AM EDT Rita 100 ESE Key West Tracking WNW Max Sust 70 988 Mb

000
WTNT33 KNHC 201146
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ABOUT TO REACH RITA...WILL DETERMINE IF IT
IS A HURRICANE...

EDIT

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES
...160 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA IS MOVING BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL BE
PASSING NEAR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AROUND MIDDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST.

EDIT


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/191201.shtml

[hatrack]

16. 9/20 11AM EDT Hurricane Rita 75 ESE Key West Max Sust 85 982 Mb

EDIT

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...120
KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CITY OF HAVANA CUBA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS BETWEEN THE CITY OF HAVANA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
TODAY. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
EYEWALL ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
DIRECTLY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 120 MILES...195 KM. SOMBRERO KEY RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 59 MPH...95 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 72 MPH...117 KM/HR.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/191201.shtml

[Boomer]

17. Wind is picking up on Key West

I've lost track of which DU thread posted this Key West webcam site:

http://www.schoonerwharf.com/webcam.htm

I've been checking in on it most of the morning, and the wind has really picked up over the last 15 minutes. Watch closely and you can see the webcam itself give the occasional bounce -- it was steady as a rock just half an hour ago. And in the background you can see the boats in the marina rocking vigorously.

[Boomer]

19. Darn! Just lost the video feed

The audio is still on, wind howling now.

[hatrack]

18. 9/20 2PM EDT Rita Now Cat Two 50 ESE Key West Max Sust 100 978 Mb

EDIT

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80
KM...SOUTH OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...
NORTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS BETWEEN THE CITY OF HAVANA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
TODAY. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN EYEWALL
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS DIRECTLY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE REACHED 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 120 MILES...195 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/191201.shtml

[phantom power]

20. Ramping up right quickly, she is.

[hatrack]

21. Not even "officially" in the Gulf yet

This is really quick - Cat 1 to Cat 2 in, what, about three hours?

[phantom power]

22. Yeah. From Tropical Storm to Cat-2 in 6 hours. 70mph to 100mph

[NNadir]

23. It sort of makes you wonder.

I'm not sure how the existing models incorporate the changes to climate.

I have no way of knowing about the long range history of these things, but it does seem to me that storms are powering up rather quickly. Dennis and Katrina seemed to surge quite suddenly.

Now this.

[phantom power]

25. I've developed an impression...

that forecasting models are based at least partly on very simplistic assumptions, like "it always happened this way before." As in, their models aren't really taking warmer water, or warmer air, into account, in a first-principles kind of way.

As if it's some kind of ad-hoc mixture of simulating physics, heuristics, and historical data.

I believe I've seen this in local weather forecasting too. It seems like meteorologists are often surprised by unusual weather, although they wouldn't have been if they deeply considered the facts on the ground instead of just "historical normals."

That's just my view from the armchair. I'd be interested to hear from an meteorologists out there.

[NNadir]

26. That's exactly the way I speculate.

I also wonder what the effect of the permeability of the atmosphere to infrared might do.

[hatrack]

24. 2.5 Hours, according to the LBN "Cat 2" Thread

Declared Cat 1 just after 11AM, declared Cat 2 at about 1:30.

Damn.

[hatrack]

27. Gulf Water Temperatures In Upper 80s

EDIT

Computer forecast models widely diverged a few days out, indicating landfall anywhere from Mexico to the Louisiana coast, he said. The storm could hit around Saturday as Category 3 storm, according to Beeler. Projections from the National Hurricane Center in Miami indicate Rita's winds could reach near 120 mph. Beeler of the Mobile weather office cautioned that forecasters still don't do well with intensity forecasts.

Meanwhile, temperatures sweltered on Monday -- tying the record of 97 for that date in Mobile -- as recovery efforts from Katrina continued in Louisiana, Mississippi and parts of Alabama. Temperatures in the low- to mid-90s, reaching into the upper 90s in some inland areas, are expected for another day or so as Rita begins to cross the Gulf and some areas remain without air conditioning.

Rita is projected to move into an area where the upper levels of the atmosphere favor strengthening, Beeler said. And although Katrina's passage cooled the Gulf waters somewhat, he said, water temperatures in the central Gulf are in the upper 80s.

As Rita crosses the Gulf, rip currents are expected to become likely along local beaches and tides may be slightly above normal Wednesday through Friday. If Rita follows the expected path, it's not certain if winds will be high enough locally to cause coastal flooding. Yet in coastal areas such as Dauphin Island and Bayou La Batre that were battered by Katrina, tides of a half-foot to a foot above normal could cause some overwash, according to Beeler.

EDIT

http://www.al.com/news/mobileregister/index.ssf?/base/news/1127207880113640.xml&coll=3

[phantom power]

28. I say it makes landfall as another Cat-4.

[hatrack]

29. 9/20 5PM EDT Rita 50 ESE Key West Tracking West Max Sust 100 973 Mb

EDIT

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...80
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 55 MILES...90
KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK
WILL BRING RITA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM. SAND KEY JUST REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60
MPH...97 KM/HR AND A GUST OF 92 MPH...148 KM/HR. VARADERO CUBA
MEASURED GUSTS TO 60 MPH...90 KM/HR.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS
973 MB...28.73 INCHES.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/202048.shtml

[hatrack]

30. 9/20 8PM EDT Rita 65 WSW Key West Max Sust 105 969 Mb Cat 3 By Tomorrow PM

EDIT

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...70
KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DRY TORTUGAS...ABOUT 65 MILES...100 KM...
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA...AND ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM...
NORTH OF HAVANA CUBA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK
...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL PASS SOUTH OF DRY TORTUGAS AND INTO THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER... RITA
WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL TO
MOVE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE DRY TORTUGAS.

DATA FROM THE KEY WEST NOAA DOPPLER RADAR AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...180 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS
A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND RITA WILL LIKELY BECOME A CATEGORY THREE OR MAJOR HURRICANE ON
WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A GUST TO 70 MPH WAS
REPORTED AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 53 MPH WITH A GUST TO 62 MPH WAS REPORTED AT DRY TORTUGAS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/20...

[hatrack]

31. 9/20 11PM EDT Rita Near Cat 3 75 WSW Key West Max Sust 110 965 Mb

It's really gathering strength rapidly - already borderline Category 3.

EDIT

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...70
KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DRY TORTUGAS...ABOUT 95 MILES... 150 KM...
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 80 MILES... 130 KM...
NORTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH WILL
TAKE RITA AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM THE KEY WEST NOAA DOPPLER RADAR AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
NOW INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA
IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE WEDNESDAY
MORNING... AND REACH CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...A GUST TO 61 MPH WAS
REPORTED AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 51 MPH WITH A GUST TO 64 MPH WAS REPORTED AT DRY TORTUGAS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

EDIT

[hatrack]

32. 9/21 8AM EDT Rita Now Cat 4 - 195 W Key West Max Sust 135 948 Mb

30 MPH gain in wind speed in 12 hours, nearly 40-point pressure drop in 24 hours. Gathering force quickly.

EDIT

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 195 MILES...
WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 790 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD
BRING THE CENTER OF RITA FARTHER AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT RITA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGHTEN AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. A NOAA PLANE WILL CHECK THE INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...28.00 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. STORM SURGE
FLOODING ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
SUBSIDE TODAY.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/191201.shtml

[hatrack]

33. NHC - "Every Impression That Rapid Intensification Is Continuing"

EDIT

THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF RITA GIVES EVERY IMPRESSION THAT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS CONTINUING...AND WHILE THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL MENTIONED EARLIER IS NOT AS APPARENT NOW THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS STILL GOING STRONG. THUS INTENSIFICATION COULD
CONTINUE UNTIL A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE OCCURS OR UNTIL THE EYE
MOVES WEST OF THE LOOP CURRENT IN ABOUT 24 HR. THE GFDL MODEL
PEAKS RITA AT ABOUT 120 KT IN 12-18 HR...THE SHIPS MODEL PEAKS IT
AT 122 KT IN 48 HR...AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE PEAKS IT AT 131 KT IN 48
HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BRING THE SYSTEM TO 125 KT IN 24
HR AS A BLEND OF THESE FORECASTS. HOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT BE A
SURPRISE IF RITA BECAME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IN THE NEXT 24 HR
BEFORE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT DUE TO A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE OR THE
LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WEST OF THE LOOP CURRENT. RITA SHOULD
MAINTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS UNTIL LANDFALL...THEN WEAKEN AFTER
LANDFALL.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/210843.shtml?

[hatrack]

34. 9/21 11AM EDT Rita 260 W Key West Max Sust 140 944 Mb Cat 5 Very Possible

EDIT

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES...
WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 755 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES. THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH RITA IS FORECAST TO
EXPAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/191201.shtml

[phantom power]

35. This is going to hurt, all over again.

[hatrack]

36. 9/21 1:15 PM EDT Approaching Cat 5 Winds 150 920 Mb

Holy shit.

000
WTNT63 KNHC 211807
TCUAT3
HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS INTENSIFIED
A LITTLE MORE AND WINDS HAVE REACHED 150 MPH WINDS WITH A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 920 MB. THIS MAKES RITA A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT3+shtml/211807.shtml

[phantom power]

37. Cat-5: 165mph, 920mb (maybe lower now?)

[NNadir]

38. Pretty clearly the models are breaking down.

If you look at the predictions over the last few days, it seems as if the models are simply catching up with the experimental results.

[hatrack]

39. Yes, but if that's the case, doesn't that make Santorum's life harder?

After all, he was the one who wanted to abolish the NHS and make weather information available on a pay basis, through his good buddies at Accuweather, wasn't he? :eyes:

[NNadir]

41. That piece of cat shit is gone.

Good riddance. It's been a total embarrassment to live just a few miles from his state's border.

I don't know what the people of Pennsylvania were thinking when they put that cretin in office in the first place..

[hatrack]

40. 9/21 7PM CDT - Rita 3rd Strongest Ever - 580 ESE Galveston 165 Mph Winds

000
WTNT33 KNHC 220008
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

CORRECTED PRESSURE CONVERSION TO 26.52 INCHES

...CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE RITA CONTINUING TO DEEPEN...
...NOW THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN
ON RECORD...
EDIT

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 580 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 680 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA
IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES.

THE PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY AND THE LATEST
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 898 MB...26.52 INCHES. THIS MAKES
RITA THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE
ATLANTIC BASIN.

TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE
AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
LARGE WAVES ON TOP AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE FLOODING.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...24.5 N... 86.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...898 MB.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/191201.shtml

Unbelievable. I have never seen a storm like this.

[hatrack]

42. 9/21 10PM - Rita 3-Day Track Nearing Houston, Galveston - Max Sust 175

Still waiting for 10:00 PM CDT Update, but have to take a break now. I'm making myself (and more importantly, my wife) crazy with my hurricane obsession.

Can't help it, though. As I mentioned to NNadir earlier, I've never seen anything like this in my life, and I've always been a weather geek.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/023809.shtml?3day?large

[Kool Kitty]

43. Me, too.

I have to admit that I can't keep my face away from the TV. I just can't believe what I am seeing. Two of these storms in the past month? Un-friggin'-real. So frightening. I keep thinking what it would be like to get one of these monsters in this area-New York, New Jersey. What the hell would we do?

[hatrack]

44. 9/21 10PM CDT - Rita 570 ESE Galveston Tracking W Max Sust 175 989 Mb

000
WTNT33 KNHC 220249
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 18...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

CORRECTED RAINFALL STATEMENT FOR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA

...CATEGORY FIVE RITA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO...

EDIT

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OR ABOUT 570 MILES...
915 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 670 MILES...
1080 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 897 MB...26.49 INCHES.
THIS MEANS RITA IS THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF
PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/220008.shtml?

Some Discussion - even with potential outflow and weakening, Cat 4 strength at landfall still very possible.

THIS EXTREMELY FAVORABLE PATTERN...COMBINED WITH
30-31C SSTS...HAS ALLOWED RITA'S EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING TO OCCUR. THE
EYE WILL BE PASSING OVER THE WARM GULF LOOP CURRENT DURING THE NEXT
12 HOURS...SO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE... IF AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE DOES NOT INHIBIT THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS. BY 36-48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE CURRENT THREE OUTFLOW CHANNEL PATTERN WILL BE REPLACED BY
MAINLY A LARGE POLEWARD OUTFLOW PATTERN. THIS SHOULD INDUCE SOME
STEADY WEAKENING...BUT THAT TYPE OF OUTFLOW PATTERN...COUPLED WITH
EXPECTED LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS...IS STILL SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. OF COURSE...
INTERNAL DYNAMICS ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN WHAT THE INTENSITY OF A
HURRICANE WILL BE... AND WE HAVE NO SKILL IN FORECASTING EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES BEYOND ABOUT 6-12 HOURS...AT BEST. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE TREND OF THE SHIPS MODEL...ONLY SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AFTER 24 HOURS DUE TO LOWER VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATED BY THE
NOGAPS...CANADIAN...UKMET...AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECASTER STEWART

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/220311.shtml?

[NNadir]

45. Well at least they can use the rain.

http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1805_PROB34_F120_sm2+gif/023809.gif

(Laughs very nervously.)

[hatrack]

46. 9/22 7AM CDT Rita 490 SE Galveston Max Sustained 170 907 Mb

Slight weakening, but NHC projects it will still arrive as at least a Cat 3.

EDIT

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.3 WEST OR ABOUT 490 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 595 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 170 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES RITA A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY
FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. A SLOW WEAKENING TREND
IS FORECAST BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST LATE FRIDAY OR
EARLY SATURDAY AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY A HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 907 MB...26.78 INCHES.

TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA.
TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE
SOME COASTAL FLOODING.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/191201.shtml

Tracking map now showing almost direct hit on Houston - barely to the east:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/085837.shtml?3day?large

[hatrack]

47. 9/22 4AM CDT Rita Track from NOAA Moving Towards Heart Of Gulf Oil Patch

I was just comparing the lastest storm track projection:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/085837.shtml?3day?large

With API's map of where oil & gas platforms are concentrated:

http://api-ec.api.org/filelibrary/GCNGOP_map_083005.pdf

And if someone knows how to get both graphics to display, I'd be most appreciative.

[phantom power]

49. I don't think you'll get any PDF to display like you want.

Judging by the density of oil wells, this may hit our fuel infrastructure harder than Katrina.

[hatrack]

50. It's the north-northwest movement that really concerns me

Combine that with the likelihood the the NE quadrant is likely to move through the thickest regions of oil & gas platforms AND some of the most dense concentrations of offload stations.

To say nothing of what 10-15" of rain is going to do to New Orleans right about now.

[hatrack]

48. 9/22 1PM CDT Rita 435 SE Galveston Max Sust. 150 915 Mb

Slightly weaker but still a high-end Cat. 4.

EDIT

AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.2 WEST OR ABOUT 435 MILES...700
KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 430 MILES...695 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS.

DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR... WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE WAS 915 MB...27.01 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA.
TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE
SOME COASTAL FLOODING.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/191201.shtml

[hatrack]

51. 9/23 7AM EDT Rita 260 SE Galveston Max Sust 140 930 Mb Tracking NW

EDIT

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
CAMERON LOUISIANA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA
IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA WAS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY
KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE
COASTAL FLOODING. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT
MOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/191201.shtml

Track now looks like about 40-45 east of Houston - right through the heart of the oil patch, and into one of the thickest concentrations of refineries. Port Arthur is directly in the path, with Beaumont just inland.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/085714.shtml?3day?large

[hatrack]

52. 9/23 10AM CDT Rita Borderline 3/4 220 SE Galveston Max Sust 135 929 Mb.

EDIT

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 210 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CORE OF RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND
UPPER TEXAS COASTS EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS AT THE BORDER OF CATEGORY FOUR AND THREE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
LANDFALL...BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 929 MB...27.43 INCHES.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml?

[hatrack]

53. 9/23 4PM CDT Rita 155 ESE Galveston Max Sust 125 930 Mb Landfall Daybreak

EDIT

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CORE OF HURRICANE RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE
BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A
DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INLAND AS FAR AS 100 MILES NEAR THE PATH OF RITA. AN ELEVATED
STATION AT MARSH ISLAND LOUISIANA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 59 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 78 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE
AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF
THE GULF COAST.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/191201.shtml