Scientists Work To Nail Down Odds Of Amazon Forest Dieback Theory - NYT

[hatrack]

EDIT

The Nature paper set off a decade of research to pin down a better answer. Many scientists believe that the original paper made some overly pessimistic assumptions about temperature changes in the region and used a relatively crude representation of the Amazon forest. Some groups came to the opposite conclusion from the Cox group, finding in their forecasts that the Amazon forest would remain robust through the coming century. Yet other papers supported the view that Amazon dieback was a real possibility, even if it might happen somewhat later in the century than predicted by the Cox group. The question remains unresolved.

It took on a new urgency in 2005, however, when a severe drought hit the Amazon region, killing many large trees. In 2010, there was an even larger drought with potentially worse damage — two “once a century” droughts just five years apart. The 2010 drought is still under study; some evidence suggests that the 2005 drought was linked to high Atlantic Ocean temperatures that may in turn be linked to human emissions of carbon dioxide.

The droughts raise a disturbing question: Could the great dieback predicted for midcentury already be starting? Scientists do not know. They say the effects of the two droughts are likely to be transient, but only if similar events do not recur anytime soon. Oliver L. Phillips, a researcher at the University of Leeds, led a team that documented a huge loss of carbon in the Amazon because of the 2005 drought. “The most likely outcome is that the forest will gain all that carbon back, and then some,” he said in an interview.

But he and other scientists say that if the Amazon starts experiencing such droughts every few years, all bets are off.

EDIT

http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/07/the-amazon-dieback-scenario/

[RedCloud]

1. Young trees wrapped in plastic grow very quickly. Especially tropical trees.

Ironic. But there could be hope. Just sweat the young trees. They can grow over 30 feet in one year if wrapped in plastic.