Research Model Advances Hurricane Intensity Prediction

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BOULDER -- An advanced research weather model run by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is following Hurricane Rita to give scientists a taste of how well forecast models of the future may predict hurricane track, intensity, and important rain and wind features. Tap into the model's daily storm projection at: http://www.ucar.edu.

With its high-resolution grid of data points just four kilometers (about 2.5 miles) apart, the model can project the location of fine-scale rain bands and eyewall structures 48 hours into the future.

The model captured in detail the collapse of Hurricane Katrina's eyewall at landfall and the shift of precipitation to the north side of the storm. Had the eyewall's structure remained coherent, the winds would have been far more devastating. However, an eyewall always weakens at landfall, says Davis.

Teams supporting the Department of Energy and Department of Homeland Security are using real-time ARW data in their damage models. The researchers are testing how computer simulations of a particular hurricane's most destructive features might improve damage model projections and lead to better warnings of floods, power outages, and road blockage. This year's test cases have included hurricanes Katrina, Ophelia, and now Rita.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/09/050922013931.htm