New Research Casts Doubt on Doomsday Water Shortage Predictions

[OnlinePoker]

From the Andes to the Himalayas, scientists are starting to question exactly how much glaciers contribute to river water used downstream for drinking and irrigation. The answers could turn the conventional wisdom about glacier melt on its head.

A growing number of studies based on satellite data and stream chemistry analyses have found that far less surface water comes from glacier melt than previously assumed.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=research-casts-doubt-doomsday-water-shortage-predictions
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It says the glaciers are still melting, but at least the impact won't be as severe as originally thought for the Indian subcontinent and South China rivers.

[Scuba]

1. Did the report say anything about how fast fracking and other industrial problems are poisoning H2O?

[OnlinePoker]

2. I honestly don't know how much fracking goes on over there

But since you responded to my post less than 2 minutes after it went up, it's obvious you didn't even read the article.

[Scuba]

3. I read enough to digest that "doubt was cast on doomsday water predictions" ...

... based in part on studies of glacial melt.



Since the biggest threat (IMHO) to the world's water supply is industrial pollution, I wanted to know if that problem was addressed in the article.

If not, it seems shaky to me to suggest threats to the world's water supply aren't serious.

[OKIsItJustMe]

4. Although I’m no fan of fracking, I believe your priorities are misplaced

http://www.enn.com/top_stories/article/2529

Water Crisis Looms as Himalayan Glaciers Melt

NEW DELHI — Imagine a world without drinking water.

It's a scary thought, but scientists say the 40 percent of humanity living in South Asia and China could well be living with little drinking water within 50 years as global warming melts Himalayan glaciers, the region's main water source.

The glaciers supply 303.6 million cubic feet every year to Asian rivers, including the Yangtze and Yellow rivers in China, the Ganga in India, the Indus in Pakistan, the Brahmaputra in Bangladesh and Burma's Irrawaddy.

…

"If the current scenario continues, there will be very little water left in the Ganga and its tributaries," Prakash Rao, climate change and energy program coordinator with the fund in India told Reuters.

…

[Scuba]

6. Perhaps it's the use of the word "doomday", from which I infer....

...the end of humanity, while the authors use it to describe regional problems.

[OKIsItJustMe]

7. So, “40 percent of humanity” without drinkable water is just a “regional problem?”

What do you suppose would happen if 40% of humanity lost access to drinkable water?

Fracking is a “regional problem” affecting much less than 40% of humanity.


In fact, I believe the whole “fracking” issue is a distraction from the real problem. If we are to get back to 350ppm, we need to leave that natural gas in the ground.

http://www.arxiv.org/pdf/0804.1126.pdf

…

Phase-out of coal emissions by 2030 (Fig. 6) keeps maximum CO₂ close to 400 ppm, depending on oil and gas reserves and reserve growth. IPCC reserves assume that half of readily extractable oil has already been used (Figs. 6, S12). EIA <80> estimates (Fig. S12) have larger reserves and reserve growth. Even if EIA estimates are accurate, the IPCC case remains valid if the most difficult to extract oil and gas is left in the ground, via a rising price on carbon emissions that discourages remote exploration and environmental regulations that place some areas off-limit. If IPCC gas reserves (Fig. S12) are underestimated, the IPCC case in Fig. (6) remains valid if the additional gas reserves are used at facilities where CO₂ is captured.

…

A practical global strategy almost surely requires a rising global price on CO₂ emissions and phase-out of coal use except for cases where the CO₂ is captured and sequestered. The carbon price should eliminate use of unconventional fossil fuels, unless, as is unlikely, the CO₂ can be captured. A reward system for improved agricultural and forestry practices that sequester carbon could remove the current CO₂ overshoot. With simultaneous policies to reduce non-CO₂ greenhouse gases, it appears still feasible to avert catastrophic climate change.

…

Would it be acceptable to you to burn all of that natural gas, if some method other than “fracking” were used? By making “fracking” the issue, a lovely little distraction is created. Now, all the gas companies need to do is address people’s concerns about “fracking” (e.g. by http://www.exxonmobilperspectives.com/2011/08/25/fracking-fluid-disclosure-why-its-important/">disclosing the fluids) and the bigger issue (Climate Change) is forgotten.

[Scuba]

8. My final post this topic. I don't mean to belittle the problems in Asia or elsewhere...

... and I did list "other industrial pollution" in addition to fracking.


I believe threats to humanity's water supply are very serious. The original post title suggested otherwise, ergo my reaction.

[saras]

5. The article - and title - rather overstate the data

The "doomsday" predictions are very specific ones about specific groups losing water due to loss of glaciers. In a handful of regions it turns out that most of their water is actually groundwater from the monsoon, whereas it was previously thought to be glacier melt. This means that glacier loss - which is happening - doesn't NECESSARILY mean 1.5 billion people without water, as some predictions have asserted.

Big picture - some change, but not a lot worldwide. And no, the article doesn't address water quality issues at all. The article is about new studies of glaciers, not worldwide water issues.