World has five years to avoid severe warming: IEA

[NickB79]

http://news.yahoo.com/world-five-years-avoid-severe-warming-iea-170519443.html

"The world has just five years to avoid being trapped in a scenario of perilous climate change and extreme weather events, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned on Wednesday.

On current trends, "rising fossil energy use will lead to irreversible and potentially catastrophic climate change," the IEA concluded in its annual World Energy Outlook report.

"The door to 2.0 C is closing," it said, referring to the 2.0 Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) cap on global warming widely accepted by scientists and governments as the ceiling for averting unmanageable climate damage.

Without further action, by 2017 the total CO2 emissions compatible with the 2.0 C goal will be "locked in" by power plants, factories and other carbon-emitting sources either built or planned, the IEA said."


5 years? Oh, no problem, no problem at all :sarcasm:

[XemaSab]

1. 5 years means 2

in "faster than expected" land.

[Champion Jack]

3. 5 years is the new 2?

[arcane1]

2. Good luck!!!

I don't see much happening between now and then. Think of all the short-term gains some asshole might lose!

[kestrel91316]

4. Don't buy a big bag of people food.

[Turbineguy]

5. That means currency speculators

have 4.5 years to make enough to buy a 600 hp car to drive around in.

[NickB79]

6. Thank God we've got our priorities in order! nt

[Speck Tater]

7. So long and thanks for all the fish

The human race is toast.

(ed: by someone who can't type four words without a typo)

[OKIsItJustMe]

8. IEA Press Release

http://www.iea.org/press/pressdetail.asp?PRESS_REL_ID=426

The world is locking itself into an unsustainable energy future which would have far-reaching consequences, IEA warns in its latest World Energy Outlook

http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/">See Related Publication or Event

09 November 2011 London --- Without a bold change of policy direction, the world will lock itself into an insecure, inefficient and high-carbon energy system, the International Energy Agency warned as it launched the 2011 edition of the World Energy Outlook (WEO). The agency's flagship publication, released today in London, said there is still time to act, but the window of opportunity is closing.

"Growth, prosperity and rising population will inevitably push up energy needs over the coming decades. But we cannot continue to rely on insecure and environmentally unsustainable uses of energy," said IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven. "Governments need to introduce stronger measures to drive investment in efficient and low-carbon technologies. The Fukushima nuclear accident, the turmoil in parts of the Middle East and North Africa and a sharp rebound in energy demand in 2010 which pushed CO2 emissions to a record high, highlight the urgency and the scale of the challenge."

In the WEO's central New Policies Scenario, which assumes that recent government commitments are implemented in a cautious manner, primary energy demand increases by one-third between 2010 and 2035, with 90% of the growth in non-OECD economies. China consolidates its position as the world’s largest energy consumer: it consumes nearly 70% more energy than the United States by 2035, even though, by then, per capita demand in China is still less than half the level in the United States. The share of fossil fuels in global primary energy consumption falls from around 81% today to 75% in 2035. Renewables increase from 13% of the mix today to 18% in 2035; the growth in renewables is underpinned by subsidies that rise from $64 billion in 2010 to $250 billion in 2035, support that in some cases cannot be taken for granted in this age of fiscal austerity. By contrast, subsidies for fossil fuels amounted to $409 billion in 2010.

Short-term pressures on oil markets are easing with the economic slowdown and the expected return of Libyan supply. But the average oil price remains high, approaching $120/barrel (in year-2010 dollars) in 2035. Reliance grows on a small number of producers: the increase in output from Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is over 90% of the required growth in world oil output to 2035. If, between 2011 and 2015, investment in the MENA region runs one-third lower than the $100 billion per year required, consumers could face a near-term rise in the oil price to $150/barrel.

…

[happyslug]

10. Dependent in US and Russia improving energy efficiceny over the next 25 years

http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2011/homepage/WEO2011_Press_Launch_London.pdf

There are actually saying the US imports of Oil will DROP below Europe's imports by 2035 do to "More production and improve efficiencies". From other sources (including other EIA documents) little prospect of increase US Oil production over the next 25 years (More oil from the Alaska Wildlife area more then offset by further decline in the lower 48 states and the recent increase in off shore oil production in the gulf is expected to reverse within a few years). Thus the big "savings" will be increase efficiencies, but we are approaching some "walls" on that subject, i.e. Hybrids cost almost 1/3 more then a conventional cars, but what will their trade in value be when they are 10 years old? Most lower income people who drive end up driving 10-15 year old cars, which would be long after the batteries in most Hybrids would have had to be replaced (and at a cost well above the normal repair costs for a 10-15 year old car).

What will the Janitors, Cashiers and other low income people drive to and from work? Presently many are driving cars made in the 1990s. Will the Government increase Public Transportation so such low income people can get to and from their work in suburbia? (most such people live in the inner cities but work in the suburbs). Will employers make accommodations? Those question are NOT even being asked let alone answered.

I hate to say this but something has to give, and we will see it is the suburban malls first. The store owners of the stores in the Mall will complain and demand the Government do something, but then reject any realistic plan the Government comes up with (i.e. build public housing next to the mall so the workers can walk to work instead of driving, the Mall pay for 24 hour bus service so the night time cleaners can get to the mall and clean it at night or even just moving closer to where their workers live).

We are facing a mess, and hopeful thinking will NOT get us out of it.

[Javaman]

9. In other words...

we're fucked.

[Odin2005]

11. That's what I thought, too.

5 years is not enough time for any significant societal overhaul.

[Nederland]

12. Then things are looking up

Two years ago people were telling us we only have "months" to do something about climate change.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/cif-green/2009/nov/03/lester-brown-copenhagen

At this rate, in a few more years we will have several decades to deal with the problem... :eyes: