Another near-gulf "investigational area" forming.

[skids]

FWIW. Let's just hope it doesn't spin up.

[NYC]

1. Are those 3 lines potential paths?

?

[skids]

2. Yep.

Weather Channel says no sign of it organizing.

They also note a small fragment of Rita going back down into the Gulf across the Florida panhandle. Hopefully too small a chunk to actually do anything.

[highplainsdem]

3. From Jeff Masters' blog at Weather Underground:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Posted By: JeffMasters at 12:05 AM GMT on September 27, 2005
Updated: 12:10 AM GMT on September 27, 2005

The tropical disturbance in the central Caribbean sea, south of Hispanolia, has changed little this afternoon, and remains very disorganized. There is no surface circulation, and pressures are not falling significantly. This disturbance split in two this morning, and the leading (westernmost) portion was effectively destroyed by wind shear associated with an upper level low to its northwest. The trailing (eastern) portion of the disturbance south of Hisponolia has about 10 knots of shear over it, which is marginal for tropical storm development.

The upper level low is moving to the north away from the disturbance, and a favorable low-shear environment is forecast to set up over the disturbance by Wednesday or Thursday. A reconnaissance airplane is scheduled to visit the area on Tuesday, but I doubt it will be needed until Wednesday. I still give this disturbance a 60% chance of becoming a tropical storm by Friday, when it should be near western Cuba or in the Gulf of Mexico. It is far too early to even offer even an educated guess about what might happen then.

[highplainsdem]

4. An update there says the disturbance now has well-defined circulation.