Hybrids: Don't buy the hype (they won't save you money)

[papau]

http://money.cnn.com/2005/09/23/Autos/hybrid_alternatives/index.htm

Hybrids: Don't buy the hype
Sure, hybrids save gas but they won't save you money. There are smarter ways to go.
September 26, 2005: 3:54 PM EDT
By Peter Valdes-Dapena, CNN/Money staff writer


NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - <snip>For the Ford Escape hybrid, the difference is less stark. To make up the difference over five years between the Escape hybrid and a Ford Escape XLT, gas prices would have to average $5.60 after you purchase the vehicle.

The Prius itself, however, could be an exception. There is no such thing as a non-hybrid Prius, making a direct comparison impossible. Compared to a Toyota Camry, a car with similar interior space which costs about $100 more over five years, the Prius driver could actually save a small amount of money. <snip>

The recently passed energy bill includes a tax credit that would range from $500 up to $3,400, depending on the fuel efficiency of the car, for vehicles purchased after Jan 1., 2006. The credit could be enough to create some real savings. For example, Ford estimates the tax credit on a Ford Escape hybrid to be $2,600. <snip>

Check out diesels
Second, consider buying diesel. Diesel cars cost only a little more than gasoline-powered cars, but they get far better fuel mileage. Also, because their engines are more durable, diesels have better resale value than gasoline-powered cars. That alone should be enough to make up any additional cost of the vehicle, leaving the gas-money savings in your pocket. Also, diesels will qualify for tax credits under the new tax rules. Again, diesel buyers might want to wait until next year to buy. (For more, see It may be time for diesel.) <snip>


Related stories:

Gas-saving tips put to the test (Drive more gently, do with less engine power or a smaller, lighter vehicle)
http://money.cnn.com/2005/09/01/Autos/tipsandadvice/gas_saving_test/index.htm

It may be time for diesel http://money.cnn.com/2005/08/29/Autos/tipsandadvice/diesels/index.htm

Fuel-saving tech is all around us http://money.cnn.com/2005/09/01/Autos/fuel_efficiency_trends/index.htm

http://www.cnn.com/2005/POLITICS/09/27/alternativefuel.cars.ap/index.html

State (Massachusetts) eyes incentives for hybrid, alternative fuel cars

Tuesday, September 27, 2005; Posted: 7:13 a.m. EDT (11:13 GMT)

BOSTON, Massachusetts (AP) -- As fuel prices soar and drivers search for ways to save money, lawmakers are pushing a bill they say would make Massachusetts a national leader in the drive to ease dependence on gasoline.

The bill, which could come up for a vote in the Senate as soon as Thursday, would reward drivers who buy hybrid or alternative fuel cars with tax breaks, free transponders to get through tolls quicker and open access to HOV lanes.

The bill also would require that at least half of the state's fleet of vehicles run on alternative fuels by 2010, and establish an Alternative Fuels Institute at the University of Massachusetts.

Massachusetts is already ninth in the nation in the number of hybrid cars on the road, according to Republican Sen. Bruce Tarr, the bill's author.<snip>

[asthmaticeog]

1. Five years?

Who the fuck only keeps a newly-bought car for five years? Any sensible person would keep the car for awhile after it was paid off. And frankly, people who replace automobiles that still work just fine are part and parcel of the consumption problem that hybrids partly alleviate. This article is built on a bullshit premise.

Theat's true about diesel, though, bio-diesel all the moreso.

[TallahasseeGrannie]

3. How are the hybrids for safety? They seem very small. n/t

[ebal]

5. Battery banks

There are also electrical problems for emergency crews. You have to know what a car has before you try and handle a fire or use the jaws of life to remove someone.

Some of the cars have the battery banks in the back of the car with power lines running in various places to the electric motor.

There's also the cost of replacing the batteries every 5 years, that some people don't account for.

Hydrogen would be an entirely different set of safety prolems.

[skids]

14. FUD.

Hybrid batteries do not have to be replaced every five years.

No they don't have more parts to break than a normal car, either, before that old chestnut gets hauled out of the closet.

Take my word for it -- once GM gets it's hybrids on the road and they start selling, news articles like this will start to suddenly say hybrids are the best thing since sliced bread.

The NYT article is pure, unadulturated industry screed. Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt, aka FUD, is being sewn in a coordinated PR campaign to buy the U.S. auto industry time to catch up.

[ebal]

29. You are correct on that

http://www.hybridcars.com/blogs/taxi/batteries

"The cost the batteries to replace for the classic model including labour would be $5,000.00 cdn if you had to replace the whole pack. Because it's modular, you would only replace defective cells within the module. The classic model has a total of 228 cells in 38 modules and the current model has 168 cells. The cost of an individual cell would be approx. $17.00 cdn."
...
"The Toyota Highlander and Lexus 400h both currently use lithium ion batteries, which would have an even longer life span. The trend for the future would be to eventually do away with batteries all together and move into capacitors. "

[Strelnikov_]

15. Considering Toyota Warrants The Batteries For 10 Years

that should not be a concern.

[hatrack]

27. Well, after four years and change and no battery problems . . .

And an eight-year battery warranty and a ten-year projected battery life, somehow I can't get all sweaty and worried about your post. :eyes:

[Delphinus]

26. Mine's a '97

and I hope to keep it running for a very, very long time.

[ebal]

2. Diesel

You can also use bio-fuels in diesel engines.

I don't have a link to studies, but I remember from College that a farmer with Diesel engines could allocate 10% of his crop (depending on the crop of course) as a fuel source and with that could have enough fuel to handle the other 90% for sale.

Example: 100 acres of sunflowers, you press the oil out of 10 acres and use that as fuel in the Diesel engine to handle the other 90 acres.

[Burma Jones]

4. Well, what's going on here is the traditional market cycle

The early adopters pay a hefty premium to get the ball rolling. As factories are re-tooled, the costs drop. This will happen with hybrids because Toyota is heavily committed to producing and marketing hybrids - this will eliminate the difference between hybrids and traditionals. As Toyota goes, the industry goes - eventually......

Diesel technology is much better than what we remember from the 1970s. Volkswagen has a good selection of clean, fuel efficient diesels. All we need are more stations that offer diesel to give consumers the confidence that they will be able to pull into pretty much any station and get diesel.....

[Coastie for Truth]

36. Europeans are prototyping hybrids where the IC is a diesel/biodiesel

GM had one (the Precept) - and Ford has one (a Hummer Diesel hybrid where the exhaust gas heat is recaptured in a fuel cell; USMC-ARPA development contract).

Imagine - a biodiesel hybrid.

[Burma Jones]

39. Works for me

[fasttense]

6. About a year ago I did some research on the hybrids myself.

Though over ten years I would have saved money on a hybrid, I couldn't afford the initial cost. What is that saying? You have to spend money to make money. I didn't have the money to spend so I bought a Nissan Sentra. It gets great gas millage and I can afford the payments.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

7. The media's been on a kick against hybrids lately.

I wonder if that has anything to do with their advertising revenues...

[LiberalinNC]

8. Ford Hybrid is an oxymoron!

;)

[KoKo]

9. Cars that run deisel emit smelly fumes, though. Have they gotten better?

Had a neighbor with an old Mercedes that used deisel.. The stink was terrible. Also like city busses and trucks. Isn't it much worse for the environment?

[skids]

16. Depends on the diesel fuel.

The sulfur content is the main contributor to diesel pollution. Biodiesel doesn't have it, and if Bushco doesn't manage to gut the new fuel standards before they take effect, fossil diesel won't have nearly as much in a few years.

Just for the record, though, there are such things as "hybrid diesels" and hybrid technology can help to further reduce emissions from a diesel engine. The two technologies are not in competition. They just aren't both available in the same car yet on the U.S. mass market.

[papau]

20. Key point - but below zero Diesels turns to gel - will electric help this

problem?

[hatrack]

28. Also, all diesels currently sold are EPA Tier 2-compliant

They're still diesels and still substantially dirtier than gasoline engines, but they continue to improve.

[smoogatz]

10. It's not just about saving money. Duh.

Hybrids save gas, which reduces our dependance on foreign oil. They're also MUCH cleaner than conventional vehicles, which means they produce less greenhouse gases. For that, I'm willing to pay the premium.

[Gidney N Cloyd]

13. Great minds :-)

[Lorien]

41. My friend, a former Camry owner, just bought a Prius for $22,000

(New). That was less than what his Camry cost last year, it has more interior space, plus he gets 50-100mpg in the right driving conditions. I think that this article is a bunch of BS.

[Kolesar]

11. I agree about the cost/benefit ratio of hybrids (and beware diesel GHG)

Diesels emit N20 which is a greenhouse gas, and much more NO and NO2 that are smog producing gasses. That's why the US EPA site gives them poor recommendations wrt emissions. I am still studying this and don't have all the data yet.

[Strelnikov_]

18. Everything I Have Seen Indicates That (Passenger Car) Diesels

are neutral from a GHG standpoint. That is, my TDI Jetta yields the same GHG effect as the gasser variant. Higher fuel efficiency is offset by soot, other gasses.

Bought a TDI for the flex-fuel capability (dino/bioD) in a small car, and also for the store-ability of diesel considering the coming rationing.

Would have preferred a PHEV, but we know about the availability of those.

[Kolesar]

22. I have a vision that a contemporary diesel would be bio-fueled in its late

...years. Since diesels are so long lived, a buyer can expect to be operating it in 15 years and at such time biofuel would be available.

If you have any more source material on GHG emissions, please direct me to them. I like to discuss this on some "less political" forums than DU also.

[Gidney N Cloyd]

12. How did the main point of buying alternative fuel vehicles or hybrids

get to be about saving money? What happened to conservation and fighting polution?

[TallahasseeGrannie]

19. Nobody has mentioned safety yet

unless I have missed it. I am frankly (I guess selfishly) more concerned with my grandkids' personal safety out there on the road full of SUV's, 18-wheelers and pick-up trucks than I am altruistic about the good of the planet. I want the planet to survive, but....

I've never forgotten an accident my husband and I witnessed in the 70's where four kids in a VW bug hit a larger car head on. Two died immediately, one was brain-injured for life and one walked away. It was a life-changing moment for me.

Am I alone in this concern? I guess maybe I'm not as community-oriented as I thought, if I'm honest.

[skids]

23. I have a Prius and two Corollas sitting in my driveway.

They are the same size. The corolla is a pretty popular car.

Unless you're talking about an Insight, hybrids are the same size as normal cars and drive the same and have the same safety features.

[gulfcoastliberal]

33. That's what I want for my next car - a corolla le

I had a '91 corolla le and it still runs like a champ at 170,000 miles. I let my dad have it as a 2nd car after I got an 2001 olds alero.

[Bamboo]

32. Dr.Pepper -so misunderstood.

Hybrids travel slower which increases reaction time to avoid accidents,lower weight allows shorter braking distance.Hybrid style driving of looking further ahead to time regenerative braking leads to accident avoidance.Traveling in the slow lane and staying there avoids A-types who want to pass and useless lane swapping.This reduced stress driving style lowers blood pressure and pulse rate,I would like to see a news show hook up a Prius driver to a readout and a SUV driver for a comparison.

Believing you are in a safe vehicle when it is not is more dangerous than if you are in an unsafe vehicle and know it at every moment.I wonder how things like safety got to reside in things and not in actions,it is like believing a golf club will lower your score.I see more SUVs that have rolled over and a vehicle with people upside down are more difficult to extract than a car which is still upright.Baby seats are poorly installed which negates their ability to protect,the government has improved the standard for installation which keeps children alive that has nothing to do with vehicle mass.

Many miles in a safer vehicle is not as good as few miles in an unsafe vehicle.I have noticed fewer cars on the road with the price of gas,I expect the crash statistics will reflect fewer fatalities.The open roads let me coast more in the hybrid but the entertainment value of watching everybody navigate the asteroid field in their tie-fighters is gone.Someone told me that they thought the Prius was small but owned a Porsche so I thought they were just upset that hybrids were taking away the punchbowl from the American driving experience of bigger and faster.

[IrateCitizen]

34. You're looking at safety very shortsightedly...

I am frankly (I guess selfishly) more concerned with my grandkids' personal safety out there on the road full of SUV's, 18-wheelers and pick-up trucks than I am altruistic about the good of the planet.

Implicit in this statement is either an unwillingness or inability to see that your grandchildren's personal safety will be much MORE compromised by the status quo, in the form of increasing air pollution (leading to repiratory illness and asthma) and global warming (leading to increased severe weather events and decreased crop yields) than it will be by riding in a smaller car.

In fact, the chance that your grandchildren will ever even be in a life-threatening auto crash is relatively small, especially when compared with the absolute certainty of their suffering negative consequences from the big-auto culture.

But don't despair, you're no less community-oriented than the average American out there. As a culture we've been overcome with an inability to see the effects of our actions outside of a very small immediate circle, which in turn leads to a complete inability to forge collective solutions to our common problems. It's the legacy of an individualistic society born in a land where resources always appeared to be infinite, and now that we're running up against the reality of a finite world, we can't adapt our social models to cope.

[petronius]

37. But until the majority of the population makes the switch

she would be increasing the risk (however marginally) for the grandkids without reducing any of those long-term risks you mention. I doubt she is unwilling or unable to comprehend the situation, rather she has a pragmatic understanding that until others join in her purchase of a hybrid will not have big picture benefits. While you are correct that our society does not altruistic actions, I think you're jumping too hard on this poster...

[IrateCitizen]

42. The problem isn't a lack of altruism, it's a lack of collectivism

American society is incredibly individualistic, much more so than pretty much all of the rest of the world. A good part of the explanation for this phenomenon lay in the fact that we were a nation created by Europeans who came to a land with seemingly endless land and resources -- and even now as that perception has ceased, the mindset is deeply ingrained.

Large problems like this require collectivist solutions. However, collectivism is something that goes completely against everything America was about for the first 398 years of its existence, going back to the founding of the Jamestown colony in 1607.

And I don't really care if I come across as "jumping too hard" on others, if all I'm doing is explaining things and expressing my opinion in a very forthright manner without hurling personal attacks. Sensitivity training is not a requirement for participation in discussion boards.

[Strelnikov_]

44. "Seemingly Endless .. Resources .. Even Now As That Perception Has Ceased"

I think this view is still prevalent in a majority of our fellow 'citizens'. How else could one explain the denial of peak oil, global warming, and the current massive deficit spending at both the public and private levels?

Perception or mindset, both enable the Potemkin Village that is the current day United States.

[htuttle]

40. That's sort of ridiculous

The size of the car really would only matter in a very low speed collision. It's unlikely to be the difference between life or death.

For example, a colleague of mine was just killed by a drunk driver 2 years ago. He was driving a Caprice Classic with the full police package (cop tires, cop brakes, etc...). You're unlikely to find a sturdier American car. He was killed instantly (55 mph head on collision). He WAS wearing his seatbelt.

Head on collisions are almost always fatal at any highway speed, even if you are driving a larger car AND wearing your seatbelt.

If you are REALLY concerned about high speed collisions, buy something with a roll cage built in, like a Volvo. And there it's not the size of the car, but the roll cage, that saves your life.

[NNadir]

43. Statistically you are less likely to have an accident in a small car

than in a large car.

This should be relatively obvious, given that a small car is a smaller target. Once you are in an accident no matter what the size of your car, you lose control of events and your risks become much higher than if you simply avoided the accident in the first place.

I also note that SUV's have been prone to accident problems that are generally not experienced by small cars, such as rollover. SUV's are still more than twice as likely to rollover as a car, almost three times as likely on average as in a car.

http://www.safercar.gov/Rollover/pages/RatSysVCompare.htm

Rollovers accounted for 33% of all traffic fatalities and more than half of the fatalities in single vehicle accidents.

http://www.safercar.gov/Rollover/pages/RolloCharFat.htm

http://www.suvrollovernews.com/html/facts.html

Leaving aside the fact that SUV's are killing people merely through promoting global climate change, air pollution and creating a climate for war, it is pure bullshit that an SUV is a safer vehicle for their drivers. Of the 20 most risky vehicles to their drivers 11 of them were SUV's or pickup trucks. Only 5 subcompacts made the list, and of these 4 were made by GM.

http://www.citizen.org/documents/Microsoft%20Word%20-%20R&W%20Top%2020.pdf

For a more comprehensive view, here is the original report on the subject of safety:

http://www.aceee.org/pubs/t021full.pdf

Even if one is concerned only with one's own ass, and doesn't give a rat's ass about other people on the road, SUV's are not as safe as many passenger cars. Looking at table A5 we see that the risk to the driver of a Honda Accord is 54 for every million vehicles sold. The risk to a driver of a Ford explorer is 76 fatalities per million vehicles sold. The risk of a Toyota 4-runner and a Chevy Blazer are 109 fatalities per million vehicles sold. When one factors in the overall risk, risk to oneself and also includes the risk to one's fellow drivers, SUV's are simply disgusting.

(Some of this data suggests that part of the problem is that many SUV drivers are assholes. The relative apparent safety of minivans is attributable to the less aggressive driving style of minivan owners, you know, those "soccer moms.")

Even if this were true that SUV's were safer to their drivers, it would still be a piss-poor justification to assume that it is appropriate to save the lives of your grandchildren by raising the risks to everyone else's grandchildren.

[Kolesar]

45. SUVs don't handle well. They bounce a lot & corner badly

Hence, if you have to do emergency maneuvers, you have a higher chance of losing control or striking what you were trying to avoid. I think that is the story of SUVs having worse accident records.

If you look at raw data for NHTSA crash numbers, you will find that the forces, acceleration, and head injury probabilities are higher in small cars than large cars.

I think SUVs are poor choices because people buy them for the wrong reasons: styling, safety (which is a hoax), and room (that could be gained with a big car or minivan).

[Viking12]

25. Exactly. External Costs are eliminated from the analysis...

as they usually are. The reduction of humanity to amoral economic cogs (homo-economus) is at the forefront of the many faulty assumptions of contemporary economics.

[bananas]

17. Time is money - they save you time in the carpool lane

Not included in the analysis - because hybrids are allowed in the carpool lane with no passengers, they save you time getting through traffic.

[papau]

21. Excellent point :-)

:-)

[dcfirefighter]

30. Horrible policy

a hybrid Prius driven 18,000 miles a year uses more gas than a camry driven 6,000 miles a year (carpooling).

The real policy should be higher fuel prices, lower housing prices, and value capture taxes to pay for transit using the increased land values due to transit construction. (Don't you wish you bought a place in Columbia Heights before they opened that Metro stop?)

[bananas]

31. Yes, I think it's only temporary

to give an extra incentive for low-emission vehicle purchases.
Eventually too many people will have hybrids and the carpool lanes will start to get congested with them. Then they won't be allowed on the carpool lanes anymore. But that'll be another 5 years at least.

[One_Life_To_Give]

24. HyBrids are twice as efficient in Japan

Figures don't lie (but liars can figure)

How much a HyBrid drive will boost your milage depends on how the vehical is operated. The more starts and stops in your daily driving and the more time ideling or crawling. Things that the HyBrid drive can actually help with. The better the increase in economy.

Each consumer will have to evaluate their own driving habits to see how much a HyBrid drive might help. Those with daily commutes resembling the typical commute in Japan will see much more gain than those with the typical American commute.

[GumboYaYa]

35. First, to everyone who said it is not about saving money, but saving

energy, I agree whole-heartedly.

Nevertheless, hybrids are just a bandaid on a much bigger problem. The real problem is not the type cars we drive, but the fact that most people have to drive a car to perform most of their daily activities.

We need to build livable and sustainable communities and not more superhighways.

[Blue_Tires]

38. 90 percent of hybrid criticism

seems to come from people that have never driven/owned one, imo

[Kolesar]

46. How many people have even driven a hybrid?

About <1/2% of the US population, I expect. There's only a few hundred thousand of them out there.

[skids]

48. About 10 people have driven mine.

...and I don't let people drive my car when I can avoid it.

[Digit]

47. I had a diesel Rabbit in 1980...fuel was always at least .20 more per gall

I had it for 10 years and it always griped me. Then again, I did not have all the emissions tests to go through, either.
I don't know about nowadays.
Of course they are now doing things w/biodiesel I guess.
Just my two cents.

Oh, and it was a piece of crap...had to replace headgaskets on regular basis.

[Coastie for Truth]

49. The studies that hybrids are not cost saving

stem from a U of Michigan study - relying on "an unattributed, internal, classified GM marketing study" opines that as mileage improves, driving goes up even more. So, hybrid drivers will drive more and therefore burn more gasoline.

Prof. Lester Lave at CMU and Prof. Andy Kliet at Penn State, in GM and ExxonMobil funded studies, picked up this U of Michigan study and started a cottage industry of academicians who say that hybrids are false economy.

But, if you trace the parentage - they all go back to that "unattributed, internal, classified GM marketing study"

[skids]

50. Even were it true...

...many sections of our economy that rely on leisure driving would benefit. Funny how these economists only whine about that when they are trashing the idea of driving less.