NRL (Naval Research Laboratory) Monterey Develops More Accurate Tropical Cyclone Prediction Model

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http://www.nrl.navy.mil/media/news-releases/153-11r/

NRL Monterey Develops More Accurate Tropical Cyclone Prediction Model

11/18/2011 - NRL Press Release 153-11r
Contact: Daniel Parry, [phone]

Researchers at the Naval Research Laboratory Marine Meteorology Division (MMD), Monterey, Calif., have developed the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System Tropical Cyclone (COAMPS-TC™) model, achieving a significant research milestone in predictions of tropical cyclone intensity and structure.

While the predictions of the paths or tracks of hurricanes, more generally referred to as tropical cyclones (TC), have steadily improved over the last few decades, improvements in the predictions of storm intensity have proven much more difficult.

"Over the past two years, the COAMPS-TC model has shown to be the most accurate emerging research model for predicting tropical cyclone intensity," said Dr. Jim Doyle, research meteorologist, NRL Monterey. "There is no better example of these difficult challenges than the intensity predictions for Hurricane Irene this past August."

Producing very accurate intensity predictions during a real-time experimental demonstration of Hurricane Irene, COAMPS-TC intensity errors were six knots on average for a series of three-day forecasts, a clear improvement over the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast and other operational models that ranged from 20-30 knots.

The successful predictions have demonstrated that Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models can outperform operational statistical-dynamic models that are based on climatology and previous behavior. It is further believed that NWP models, which explicitly predict the location, dynamics and intensity of a storm, will eventually provide the most promising approach to achieve accurate TC intensity and structure prediction.

Advancing further methodologies used for vortex initialization, data assimilation and representation of physical processes, COAMPS-TC is expected to become fully-operational in 2013 at the Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) in Monterey. Considerable advancements have been made to several components of the modeling system including the data assimilation of conventional and special TC synthetic observations, vortex initialization, and representation of key TC physical processes such as air-sea fluxes, clouds and convection.

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