NPR: Can Electric Cars Help Automakers Reach 55 MPG?

[OKIsItJustMe]

http://www.npr.org/2011/11/21/142464818/can-electric-cars-help-automakers-reach-55-mpg

Can Electric Cars Help Automakers Reach 55 MPG?

by Sonari Glinton

November 21, 2011

First in a three-part series

Under rules announced by the White House this summer, cars will have to get an average of 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025 — nearly twice what the current average is. Reaching that goal will take not only feats of engineering but also changing how Americans think about their cars and how they drive them.

The electric car is one of the ways carmakers expect to lower their average fuel consumption and get to the 55 mpg average. The problem is, people aren't buying, whether all-electric or plug-in hybrid.

General Motors is struggling to sell 10,000 Chevy Volts this year and Nissan has sold just over 8,000 Leafs. For context, about 13 million cars are expected to be sold in the U.S. in 2011.

…

What Brockman doesn't say is you're only going get reach the 100-mile range on cool spring days doing about 40 mph, when you're not using the AC and car is going downhill. Consumer Reports, which tested the Leaf, said it gets an average of about 65 miles on a charge.

…

(Audio and full transcript at the link.)

[wtmusic]

1. 13 million including used cars.

About half of that in new cars.

And in the conditions they describe the Leaf will go 138 miles. Not downhill. :eyes:

[TreasonousBastard]

3. When you include light trucks...

about 10 million new cars and trucks were sold last year.

And, have you driven a Leaf? CU has and says it won't get near 100 miles per charge in the real world. I can't imagine it getting half that in the winter around here with the lights, heater and wipers going.

Fuel cells may be the answer, or we might have to wait for a completely new technology.

[OKIsItJustMe]

6. wtmusic owned a LEAF

Unfortunately it met an untimely demise.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=115&topic_id=315768&mesg_id=315768

[wtmusic]

13. Fortunately I was able to replace it

I considered a Ford Focus EV but the preliminary reviews are underwhelming (heavier, less range). And as I learned from a Ford rep at the LA Auto Show yesterday, they won't be available until March.

[OKIsItJustMe]

14. So, you were able to buy a new LEAF without waiting very long

Great!

But, that suggests there isn’t a tremendous consumer demand, outstripping the supply at this point at least.

[wtmusic]

15. I found an "orphan" - ordered, but the purchase fell through

There are 2011s on lots here and there, but I also know a few people on the waiting list. I think a lot of people just assume that's the only way to get one.

[OKIsItJustMe]

16. So… you called the dealer and asked, “Do you have any in stock?” and the dealer said, “Yes!”

Did you have to do a lot of calling around?

[wtmusic]

19. I called three dealers.

2012 is going to be critical, they've raised the price when it should be going the other way. People are going to want to see more range or a lower price soon, or the car won't make it.

Having the new plant in TN should help on price.

[OKIsItJustMe]

22. Unfortunately, people want both more range and lower price

I wish Nissan good luck with the LEAF, but I don’t think the market is ready yet.

[wtmusic]

12. Lights and wiper aren't a significant drain

A/C (a term which Nissan uses to cover hot and cold) OTOH eats about 10 miles of range, if you have it on all the time. It would get about 60 miles or 50 in extreme cold. 2012s will have a battery heater, but you'll pay $3,000 more for it.

It's not a car for everyone, but it's great for a two-car household with a commute under 50 miles. When doing errands you just plug it in when you get home and in an hour the juice from the last one is replaced. And the acceleration is pretty damn amazing.

[OKIsItJustMe]

5. EPA says Nissan Leaf Range is 73 miles

http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/energy/26067/

EPA says Nissan Leaf Range is 73 miles

Under simulated real-world driving conditions, the electric car fails to reach 100-mile range goal.

Kevin Bullis 11/23/2010

The EPA has come out with its fuel economy ratings for the Nissan Leaf electric sedan, which goes on sale in December in 5 states. EPA labeled the car the best in its class in terms of fuel economy, using the EPAs formula that says that 33.7 kilowatt hours is equivalent to a gallon of gasoline, http://media.prnewswire.com/en/jsp/latest.jsp?beat=BEAT_TRANSPORT&view=LATEST&resourceid=4463617">according to Nissan. By this measure, the car gets the equivalent of 99 miles per gallon (although it doesn't use any gasoline, just power from the grid).

But while the car is designed for a 100-mile range, it actually only gets 73 miles under drive tests meant to simulate real-world driving. Nissan has said before that mileage would vary, but gave the impression that 100 miles was the normal case, and the one http://www.nissanusa.com/leaf-electric-car/index#/leaf-electric-car/range-disclaimer/index">sanctioned by the EPA (its website says the EPA LA4 cycle puts the range at 100).

According to Nissan, under some driving conditions, such as sitting in traffic with the heat blasting, the car will only go 62 miles on a charge. Traffic jams that keep you on the road longer than 4 hours will leave you stranded. Nissan gives a http://www.nissanusa.com/leaf-electric-car/index#/leaf-electric-car/range-disclaimer/index">range of scenarios for driving range, but none of them include driving at normal highway speeds of 65 to 70 miles per hour, which in combination with the stereo blaring and the heater cranked might lower the range below 62 miles.

http://news.consumerreports.org/cars/2011/09/nissan-leaf-full-test-results-are-in.html

Small cars

Nissan Leaf: Full test results are in

Sep 30, 2011 10:15 AM

After five months of testing and living with the http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/nissan/leaf/road-test.htm">Nissan Leaf, the first mass-market all-electric car, we have published the road test, ratings, and full track report online. It will also be featured in the November issue of Consumer Reports magazine.

Since it’s not sold nationwide yet, we http://news.consumerreports.org/cars/2011/04/just-in-almost-2011-nissan-leaf---taking-delivery-in-california.html">bought our Nissan Leaf in California this past April and had it shipped to our Connecticut test facility. The Leaf cost us $35,430, but it’s eligible for a $7,500 federal tax break and additional local incentives. In California, for instance, the Leaf can become a $22,000 car due to the available subsidies.

Seen just as a car, we’ve found the Leaf a very pleasant hatchback with quick off-the-line acceleration, a quiet cabin, comfortable ride, and easy access. But there’s an elephant in the room, or actually two elephants: limited range and long charging times.

In ideal conditions, meaning mild weather and gentle driving habits, we were able to get around 90 miles of cruising range. On cold days, with the heater running, the range dropped to about 60 miles. Typically, we got about 75 miles from a full charge. In most cases the car returned to base with 10 to 15 miles left in reserve. (At 9 miles left you get a warning that the battery is low.) It then took six hours to recharge using a 240-volt charging station. A typical charging session consumed about 22 kilowatt-hours of juice. (The battery’s capacity is 24 kWh.) Without a 240-volt (aka Level 2) charger on hand, the wait can be long: 16 hours using 120-volt power.

…

[wtmusic]

10. That sounds about right.

Nonetheless, I get tired of smug hit pieces claiming 100 miles are achieved by "going downhill". I've gotten close to 100 miles (although if I drove my hybrid that way, I could probably get about 60 mpg).

onedit: also, there have been about 8,000 deliveries but over 20,000 pre-orders. So deliveries are more based on availability than demand.

[dmallind]

2. "People aren't buying"?? Bullshit - Nissan is two YEARS behind on the presale list

Makers aren't delivering perhaps, but people are slavering at the bit to buy.

[OKIsItJustMe]

4. That doesn’t necessarily follow

For example, let’s say 20,000 people wanted to buy one this year, and Nissan only made 9,000… the result would be…

[kristopher]

7. Yes it does follow.

"People aren't buying clearly refers to "lack of consumer demand".

[OKIsItJustMe]

8. No, it doesn’t follow that there’s a great deal of demand

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1064829_nissan-sells-5000th-leaf-order-backlog-slowly-clearing

Nissan Sells 5,000th Leaf, Order Backlog Slowly Clearing

By Nikki Gordon-Bloomfield Nikki Gordon-Bloomfield | August 12, 2011

It might be hard to believe, but Nissan has been selling its all-electric 2011 Leaf for nearly eight months. And a few days ago, the company sold its 5,000th Leaf to a U.S. customer.

But while Nissan doesn’t officially break down sales on a state-by-state basis, most of those sales are in the state of California, according to Nissan spokesperson Katherine Zachary.

Nissan states that around 85% of all Leafs sold were ordered with the 2011 model year option of a DC rapid-charging port, despite the general sparsity of publicly available DC rapid charging stations.

…

But that says nothing of the estimated 18,000 people who have paid $99 to be on Nissan’s pre-reservation waiting list in areas where the Leaf won’t be sold until sometime in 2012.

…

The backlog is clearing, which means that Nissan is satisfying demand. The waiting lists are in locations where it’s not being sold yet.

It does not follow that, “http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=115&topic_id=317778&mesg_id=317782">people are slavering at the bit to buy.”

[kristopher]

9. Right, and up is actually down in your universe?

There *is* a backlog - demand exceeds supply. You are completely wrong.

[OKIsItJustMe]

11. Wait a second…

If they were not satisfying demand, then the backlog would be increasing not decreasing.

LEAF sales appear to be going down.
http://blog.ucsusa.org/leaf-vs-volt-by-the-sales-numbers

(Sales in October were even lower.)

http://www.detnews.com/article/20111101/AUTO01/111010508/1148/Chevy-Volt-has-best-ever-sales-month--Nissan-Leaf-stays-ahead

Last Updated: November 01. 2011 1:22PM

Chevy Volt has best-ever sales month; Nissan Leaf stays ahead

David Shepardson/ Detroit News Washington Bureau

Washington- General Motors Co.'s extended-range electric Chevrolet had its best-ever sales month in October, but it is increasingly unlikely the Detroit automaker will meet its 2011 sales targets.

GM said it sold 1,108 Volts in October, up about 50 percent over the 723 units sold in September. It outsold the electric Nissan Leaf for the first time since April. The all-electric Leaf reported 849 sales in October, down over the 1,031 it sold in September.

…

[kristopher]

17. You are joking, right.

You can't possibly be that obtuse.

If they were satisfying demand there would be NO backlog. Read a book, please.

[OKIsItJustMe]

18. Hmmm…

If there were no backlog, they would have satisfied the demand (past tense.)

Since they are gaining on the backlog (if there is one) they are are in the process of satisfying the demand (present tense.)


Do you dispute that sales appear to have peaked in June?

[kristopher]

20. I dispute your entire treatment of the topic

It is agenda driven by your desire to promote fuel cells. You've completely lost the ability to engage objectively on the topic.

[OKIsItJustMe]

21. I see, so you don’t dispute the facts

Simply ad hominem again.

[kristopher]

25. Your intent and motive to distort is also an undisputed fact.

[OKIsItJustMe]

27. Oh! I’m sorry

I dispute the motives you have attributed to me.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=115&topic_id=317778&mesg_id=317824

(More ad hominem)

[dmallind]

24. If they ALLOWED reservations in most states the backlog would be growing

Only states where they have satisfoed existing pre-orders can take new ones at this time - just 16 states! The rest of us are still waiting for cars reserved 18 mos ago.

[OKIsItJustMe]

28. I believe that’s a tautology

If they allow people onto a LEAF waiting list, in states where Nissan does not sell them, the number of people on the waiting list can only increase. (Or am I missing something?)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=115&topic_id=317778&mesg_id=317824

[dmallind]

29. Yes you are missing something.

Waiting lists exist in all 50 states. Only 16 states are allowing new reservations. In other words Nissan, after serious criticism from buyers, is setting it up so that backlogs can only decrease right now.

It's currently being shipped to 27 states (23 only have access to shipped-in orphans) but 11 of them (and all 23 of the currently unshipped) are blocked off from ordering more until Nissan ships enough to decrease the artificially limited backlog.

[dmallind]

23. ......nothing to do with people wanting to buy. Exactly.

The article is clearly biased and implying (outright stating really) that people do noy want to buy EVs.

[OKIsItJustMe]

26. A distinct minority want an EV.

http://news.consumerreports.org/cars/2011/11/survey-car-owners-want-better-fuel-economy-support-increased-standards.html

Survey: Car owners want better fuel-economy, support increased standards

Nov 14, 2011 6:00 AM

An overwhelming majority (93 percent) of adult car owners want to see stricter fuel-economy standards, according to a new survey conducted by the Consumer Reports National Research Center. More than 90 percent want automakers to offer a larger variety of fuel-efficient vehicles, and about two-thirds say they expect to purchase a vehicle with better fuel economy.

Other key survey findings:

• Eighty-three percent of survey respondents say they’d be willing to pay more for a fuel-efficient car.
• A majority (56 percent) say they will consider an electric or hybrid for their next car, but only 16 percent are thinking about a diesel.
• Nearly three-quarters (72 percent) would consider buying some type of hybrid or electric car if they become more widely available over the next 15 years.

…

Pure electric? Not yet

Pure-electric cars, such as the Nissan Leaf, face a challenge in gaining widespread acceptance. Among respondents interested in a hybrid or electric vehicle, only 12 percent identified a pure-electric car as a possibility for their next purchase.

…

OK, so 12% of 56% (let’s call it 6%) even consider an all-electric car a “possibility” for their next car purchase.

[dmallind]

30. a distinct minority want a Chevy, or a truck, or a manual. Doesn't make any of them unpopular/fails

[OKIsItJustMe]

31. I’m afraid, that by definition, if only a minority wants something, it’s unpopular

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/popular

popular

…

2: suitable to the majority: …

Now, I happen to like a manual transmission, but I wouldn’t argue that they are popular.

Unpopular does not necessarily mean it is a failure, however, as wtmusic put it (regarding the LEAF™):
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=115&topic_id=317778&mesg_id=317811

… People are going to want to see more range or a lower price soon, or the car won't make it.

…

[dmallind]

32. So by your reasoning EVERY single model is unpopular, since none approaches a majority?

[OKIsItJustMe]

33. I suppose you might make that argument

However, check out these polls:

http://pollposition.com/2011/11/22/more-gas-or-electric-cars/

More gas or electric cars?

Posted on November 22, 2011 by Larry Register

Higher oil prices and pain at the gas pump does not seem to matter to most Americans when it comes their views on gasoline powered cars versus electric cars. In a Poll Position national scientific telephone survey, 58% of Americans said there will never be more electric cars than gas powered cars in the U.S., 26% said there will be, 15% did not have an opinion.

Politicians differed slightly on the question. Among Republicans, 71% said there would never be more electric cars than gas powered cars, 19% said there would be, 10% had no opinion. Democrats agreed but with more narrow margins, 42% said there would not be more electric cars, 36% said there would be, 21% had no opinion. Independents were more in line with Republicans with 60% saying there would never be more electric cars than gas powered cars, 25% said there will be, 16% offered no opinion.

Poll Position’s scientific telephone survey of 1,220 registered voters nationwide was conducted November 19, 2011 and has a margin of error of ±3%. Poll results are weighted to be a representative sampling of all American adults.

…

http://www.gfknop.com/pressinfo/releases/singlearticles/009009/index.en.html

Greenwash stalls electric car take-up among motorists

London, 21st November 2011: Electric cars have failed to generate sales among British motorists because of consumer confusion about the realities of their cost and performance, according to new research.

The GfK Automotive study of more than 3,000 British motorists finds that the lack of understanding about the practicalities of electric cars is deepest amongst those who say they are keenest to purchase one. While eight percent of motorists plan to buy an electric car,¹ the vast majority of this group underestimate the cost and time it takes to charge the vehicles and overestimate their range.

This clash between perception and reality helps to explain why the public’s interest in the vehicles has not translated into sales. The most recent SMMT data shows that just 1,021 electric cars have been sold to date in 2011.² GfK’s new study suggests that the number of drivers who would consider buying an electric car and have a realistic idea of the costs and performance of the vehicles is just 1 per cent of UK drivers.

…

Lopez continues: "It is telling that those who are enthusiastic about electric cars are generally unaware of the realities of owning one. There is a real struggle ahead for brands to make claims about electric cars credible to a largely sceptical public. Manufacturers need to both counteract negative sentiment from the naysayers and to encourage those who are positive about electric cars into purchasing vehicles and advocating their purchase.

…