Exxon: By 2040, 90 percent of the world's transportation will still run on oil-based fuels

[txlibdem]

By 2040, 90 percent of the world's transportation will still run on oil-based fuels, Irving, Texas-based Exxon said. And drillers will find more than enough oil to satisfy a 25-percent jump in global fuel consumption. At current demand levels, Exxon estimated that the world has enough oil to last 100 years.

William Colton, Exxon's strategic planning chief, said vehicle mileage standards may push people toward battery-powered cars, but the cheapest hybrids will be those that also use gasoline.

Plus, petroleum packs a punch that simply cannot be beaten by a battery alone. "One gallon of gasoline has enough energy to recharge an iPhone for almost 20 years," Colton said in a conference call with journalists.

Analysts have been predicting a rise in sales of hybrid vehicles, especially since the auto industry agreed in July to boost mileage requirements. Those requirements, proposed by the Obama administration, call for doubling the average fuel efficiency of U.S. vehicles to 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025.

http://online.wsj.com/article/APdc7826baa55140c6b6823cc7ac1d4251.html

This from the "they have to tell that lie" file, of course.

The real question is: since low lying areas are already experiencing salt water contamination of their aquifers (Tuvalu and Kiribatu), in 2040 can we live in a world that includes Exxon and 90% oil-based transportation?

[Javaman]

1. What they are not tellling you is that 90% will be of the remaining

30% of what we have today.

exxon lies, so what else is new?

[Kolesar]

2. And poor countries that used to run their water works off of diesel will experience dysentery

...and other diseases in the population because they could not afford fuel.
Literal demand destruction

[txlibdem]

5. solar powered pumps do not require fuel

Literal demand destruction -- if you never need to buy fuel you will piss off the oil companies, but the world will be a cleaner place.

[4dsc]

6. Cannot built solar pumps with oil

And that's the crux of your belief. As javaman pointed out, that 90% will be to power far less vehicles because oil production by 2040 will be a fraction of what is today.

[Davis_X_Machina]

3. There's a nice intersection of several engineering problems...

...energy density, portability, safety, distribution -- that has more to do with this than any oil-company cabal.

[txlibdem]

4. intersection of several engineering problems? Nope.

There are a thousand excuses to do nothing and stick with the deadly status quo.

Energy density? Not a problem for the multiple solar projects currently under construction. Nor is it a problem for the industries that could get 80% to 100% of their process heat from concentrating the sun.

Portability, safety and distribution are all far less problematic than oil.

[Davis_X_Machina]

7. Transportation's...

...going to be 60-90% liquid fuel, forever.

Question is, which liquids.

[Bob Wallace]

8. Unlikely...

Electricity is so much cheaper than any liquid fuel that as batteries improve transportation will likely switch to electricity.

An EV uses about 0.35kWh per mile. Off-peak electricity should be about $0.08/kWh. That makes it $0.028/mile.

If we're assuming that personal cars max out around 50MPG it means that liquid fuels are going to have to compete against an effective $1.40/gallon price.

Give drivers EVs with at least 175 highway mile range and <20 minute 95% charging and EVs become fully functional for long distance driving. The Honda FiT EV coming out in 2012 has a 120 mile range and <20 min. 95% charging ability.

I think there's a good chance we get ~200 mile range batteries in the next five years. I'm pretty sure EV prices are going to drop close to that of ICEVs in the next five years. Those two things happen and ten years from now we will be well underway in our transition away from liquid fuels.

[txlibdem]

9. Battery powered Electric Vehicles will start to dominate in 2020

If not sooner:

"The problem with the costs

Yet, the negative aspect of Li-Ion batteries are the high costs. At the moment you have to pay around 600 – 700 € per kWh, which fits to the prices shown in the figure. This means that you would have to pay ca. 14.000 € for a 20 kWh battery, which surmounts the price for an average mid size car. Yet in around the year 2020 the costs are expected to fall to a price level of 200 to 300 €/kWh."
... http://www.green-and-energy.com/blog/whats-is-your-battery-size/

[Bob Wallace]

10. Battery prices...

EV battery prices are more like $400/kWh. According to Better Place. Apparently we've already hit the 300 €/kWh price point.

http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/ev-batteries-dropping-rapidly-in-price/

[txlibdem]

11. IBM: Affordable electric vehicles on the market with 500 mile range by 2020

Lithium Air: IBM’s quest for the super-battery
February 10, 2011 | Robert Scoble

Video and article at http://www.building43.com/videos/2011/02/10/lithium-air-ibms-quest-for-the-super-battery/

"The lithium air battery represents “the highest energy density of any imaginable system,” says Wilcke, “but it’s not easy to do. It’s a long-term project currently in its early science phases, but in the last six or seven months we have gotten a lot of positive results, which make me cautiously optimistic that this can actually work.”

Wilcke hopes to have a lithium air battery in cars by 2020. A battery that could power a car for 500 miles would certainly be worth the wait."

[Bob Wallace]

12. 500 miles...

The head of VW has made a 500 mile range by 2020. And Secretary Chu has predicted 350 mile range by 2017.

I don't think we need that sort of range to trigger 'the great switch-over'. Somewhere around 175 highway miles is the threshold point, the way I see it. If you can make a 500 mile driving day with only two <20 minute charging stops then 95% of all drivers are going to be well served.

Get the purchase price down within $5k of a comparably outfitted ICEV with a ~175 mile range and people will start to move quickly. A 175 mile range EV for $25k would cost only small money more than a 50MPG $20k ICEV during the loan payoff years. And after that the EV would be cheaper to drive. And that's based on the price of oil not going crazy.

Nissan has hinted that their 2014 Leaf will have significant more range and will be priced quite a bit lower than their current model.

I think it possible that we'll see market shifts toward EVs beginning by 2015.

[txlibdem]

13. Everyone agrees that Electric Vehicle range will increase drastically in just a few short years

And prices will come down just as rapidly as mass production ramps up. With that in mind I recommend that everyone lease an electric car instead of buying.

Our last car payment was $400 and another $200 for gasoline. That's a pretty good case to lease a 2012 Nissan Leaf for $375 a month; add the electricity to "fuel" it: $50 - $75. It's already cheaper to drive an electric ($450 instead of $600 a month).

Any price reductions of electric vehicles are just icing on the cake, IMO.

[Bob Wallace]

14. Leasing...

Generally means that the leasing company makes money off you and when the lease is up you don't end up with anything for your money.

We've got data that shows that fuel efficient cars have better resale value than inefficient cars. I'd think that's going to be more than true for EVs. If you're someone who needs a car to get to work/school and don't have a big budget you are almost certainly going to be attracted to a choice that can save you a thousand dollars or more per year on fuel costs.

Finance the ~$25,000 post subsidy price of the Leaf for 5 years at 4% and your payments will be $460. For the extra $85 per month, $5,100 over five years you will own a Leaf outright. The resale value is going to be far higher than $5k or you can drive it yourself for next to nothing for many more years. I would imagine you'd have no trouble selling your $5k investment for $10k.

(If you live in CA or another state with decent subsidies then it really makes sense to buy a Leaf now if a 100 mile range cars works for you.)

[txlibdem]

15. Yes, but

Some people are still taken in by the oil company propaganda, afraid of the first batch of electric vehicles. That is why I suggest leasing. That will give people the ability to drive an electric vehicle without worrying about all the lies.