Study: Analysts get solar costs wrong

[jpak]

http://www.upi.com/Science_News/2011/12/07/Study-Analysts-get-solar-costs-wrong/UPI-40011323306958

KINGSTON, Ontario, Dec. 7 (UPI) -- Solar power is much cheaper to produce than most analysts realize and that fact is holding back a wider utilization of the technology, a Canadian study found.

"Many analysts project a higher cost for solar photovoltaic energy because they don't consider recent technological advancements and price reductions," Joshua Pearce of the Department of Mechanical and Materials Engineering at Queen's University said.

"Older models for determining solar photovoltaic energy costs are too conservative," he said in a university release Wednesday.

Pearce said he believes solar photovoltaic systems are close to the "tipping point" at which they can produce energy for about the same price as other traditional sources of energy.

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[Hydra]

1. That's cuz we're bent on killing ourselves digging up toxic substances to burn

All because it's "profitable."

[ret5hd]

2. That's cuz THEY are bent on killing US ...

THEY think their money anf jeebus will save THEM.

[wundermaus]

3. Excessive cost of solar energy has been a myth...

When factoring in the subsidies (robbery) and environmental devastation of our environment from oil, coal, gas, and nuclear energy... solar energy is positively a steal.
The reason solar energy is wrapped up in so much faux cost is because it defuses the source of economic power from the elite few to the individual user - and it is difficult to put a meter on it.
Solar energy (both photovoltaic and thermal) are sustainable and unbeatable when tied into a common grid where storage, distribution, and conversion optimize utilization.
The scarce power myth is being exposed. The internet (global load balancing communications grid) combined with solar power (sustainable power sources) via a global power distribution grid will free the people to essentially unlimited power.

http://www.geni.org/

[immoderate]

4. I think solar is happening now, and it's just under the radar.

Sort of like rap music in the 70s.

--imm

[Bob Wallace]

5. Solar is happening...

It's reached grid parity and is taking off.

Unlike rap music, solar has a future and it's a great big future.

[Juche]

7. We are entering the knee of the curve

Solar panel production went from about 4 GW a year of panels made in 2007 up to 24 GW a year in 2010, it will probably (as a guess) hit 100 GW of production a year by mid decade. Wind power underwent a similar trend line where it exploded after becoming cost effective.

The biggest benefit of solar IMO will be in rural parts of Africa and Asia. Solar will provide electricity where they have had none before which will drastically change their lives the way cell phones did. In the west it'll be cleaner and cheaper than fossil fuels, but it won't revolutionize anything.

[Juche]

6. Have you ever visited sun electronics

They are a wholesaler of PV panels, and the price for panels made in OECD countries like the US, Canada, netherlands, Germany, etc. runs about $1.30 a watt. And the price is still going down. Actually, checking the website they are now down to $1.04 a watt. Soon they will sell them under a dollar a watt, which is supposedly a milestone (but who knows, the cost of installation and inverters still adds a lot to the system). When I first started looking at their website about 9 months ago the lowest price they had was about $1.50 a watt.

http://www.sunelec.com/

A major problem IMO of solar costs going down so rapidly is that why would someone invest in solar panels now when the same system will be 50% cheaper in 2-3 years? I've heard the cost of solar will probably be $0.25 a watt by the end of this decade, maybe lower (probably lower if current trends in price reduction continue, I think prices are halved every 2-3 years). So a house that needs 5000 watts of panels will only spend $1250 on the solar panels to be independent of the grid. But again, you still have installation, inverters, etc. to factor into the cost too.

Supposedly as solar picks up we will see more mass produced installation and inverter products that will drastically reduce the cost of those too.

[Bob Wallace]

8. Sun -

I haven't done business with them but I did check out their reputation. Apparently they do a lot of business through eBay and they got very high ratings there. People should do their own checking.

Sun currently has grid tie systems (everything but the racks) for $1.68/watt. They sell racks at a good price but one size does not fit every application so racks need to be sold outside of packages. The inverters and other gear in their packages is top quality.

Why would one invest in solar now?

1) Federal subsidies shrink as prices drop and state and local subsidies might go away. A big drop in the price of an installation might not be as big if you don't get as much in subsidies.

2) Waiting means that you miss out on years of savings.

3) Getting some renewables on your roof and fossil fuel off the grid is just the right thing to do. Many of us do something more than pay our taxes to make the world a better place. If putting solar on your roof now rather than waiting costs you a little extra money over the long term just think of it as money well spent to end the era of coal.