Scientists Closely Monitoring Yellowstone . . .

[TeeYiYi]

From the December 2003 Idaho Observer:

Scientists closely monitoring Yellowstone

Recent eruptions, 200 degree ground temperatures, bulging magma and 84 degree water temperatures prompt heightened srutiny of park's geothermal activity

BILLINGS, Mont. -- Yellowstone National Park happens to be on top of one of the largest “super volcanoes” in the world. Geologists claim the Yellowstone Park area has been on a regular eruption cycle of 600,000 years. The last eruption was 640,000 years ago making the next one long overdue. This next eruption could be 2,500 times the size of the 1980 Mount St. Helens eruption. Volcanologists have been tracking the movement of magma under the park and have calculated that, in parts of Yellowstone, the ground has risen over seventy centimeters this century.

In July, 2003, Yellowstone Park rangers closed the entire Norris Geyser Basin because of deformation of the land and excessive high ground temperatures. There is an area that is 28 miles long by 7 miles wide that has bulged upward over five inches since 1996, and this year the ground temperature on that bulge has reached over 200 degrees (measured one inch below ground level).

There was no choice but to close off the entire area. Everything in this area is dying: The trees, flowers, grass and shrubs. A dead zone is developing and spreading outward. The animals are literally migrating out of the park.

Then during the last part of July one of the Park geologists discovered a huge bulge at the bottom of Yellowstone Lake. The bulge has already risen over 100 feet from the bottom of the lake and the water temperature at the surface of the bulge has reached 88 degrees and is still rising.

Keep in mind that Yellowstone Lake is a high mountain lake with very cold water temperatures. The Lake is now closed to the public. It is filled with dead fish floating everywhere. The same is true of the Yellowstone river and most of the other streams in the Park. Dead and dying fish are filling the water everywhere.

More: http://www.proliberty.com/observer/20031219.htm

TYY

[PartyPooper]

1. I was in Yellowstone in early October (first time in nearly 50 years!)

I remember reading a thread here at DU about 3-4 months ago regarding this dire situation. Believe me, I thought about that a LOT whilst roaming this beautiful park...and the Teton National Park, too.

This is some of the most beautiful country in the world. The wildlife is spectacular. But, it is a very dangerous place, too!

:scared:

[revcarol]

2. The last I had heard

the shoreline of the lake had changed because of the underground volcano.And they said at the time that when this blew it would take out all the western states and most of Mexico by covering everything with ash and blocking out the sun, so nothing would grow and we'd just have winter all year round for years. But I had no idea it might be imminent!!

Scary. I am downwind.

[TeeYiYi]

4. Who knows when it will go but one thing is sure . . .

. . . it will be HUGE and the American people are not being warned about it.

This from the posted article:

The irony of all this is the silence by the news media and our government. Very little information is available from Yellowstone personnel or publications. What mainstream newsstories do appear underscore the likelihood of a massive volcanic eruption. Though geologists publicly admit Yellowstone is “overdue,” they have been quoted as stating another massive magma release may not occur for 100,000 or 2 million years. Others close to the story are convinced that a massive eruption is imminent. A source that has demonstrated first-hand knowledge of the park's history and recent geothermal events stated the following: “The American people are not being told that the explosion of this 'super volcano' could happen at any moment. When Yellowstone does blow, some geologists predict that every living thing within six hundred miles is likely to die. The movement of magma has been detected just three-tenths of a mile below the bulging surface of the ground in Yellowstone raising concerns that this super volcano may erupt soon.”

TYY

[DoYouEverWonder]

16. Can I hope the Dick Cheney

is at his home in Jackson Hole that day?

[PartyPooper]

50. You can rest assured that Dickie Boy will have had his bags packed

and, he'll be LONG gone before the eruption occurs.

So, when HIS property goes on the market...then you'll know it's high time to get the hell outa' Dodge!

:nuke:

[Looiewu]

30. Closer to the truth than you think

If you care to read up on what a volcano is capable of doing, thy "Krakatoa" by Simon Winchester, published earlier this year. Fascinating study of the far-reaching effects of the eruptions in the late 1800's (the shock wave traveled around the globe SEVEN TIMES!) This was the first eruption that was witnessed, studied, and recorded extensively be modern man.

[Nevernose]

3. Most of the "official"type sites

Say that the super-volcano theory has no basis in fact -- that it's all a bunch of paranoid, baseless hogwash. Me? I'm not a vulcanologist.

[AngryAmish]

17. Does that mean you do not understand...

"Live long and prosper?"

[Rex]

36. LOL! Global warming? Nonsense! Ice Age? Saw it on DVD!

There is AMPLE evidence of a huge explosion from the caldera beneath Yellow Stone; another is do any day now. Unfortunately, most people don't know a thing about geological history. Show me a few links to these "official" sites, I need a good laugh.

[IndianaGreen]

5. FAQ about recent findings at Yellowstone Lake (US Geological Survey)

I would be more worried about Seattle because of Mount Rainier.


Mount Rainier summit.

Frequently asked questions about recent findings at Yellowstone Lake

Recent articles in the press reported a "bulge" beneath Yellowstone Lake and have generated some concern about possible dangers for residents or visitors to the area. Below, we answer some questions we've been asked by the public and press.

Is there a bulge beneath the lake?

Mapping of the lake bottom has revealed a variety of faults, hot springs and craters beneath Yellowstone Lake. In a recent scientific report (Morgan et al., 2003), one feature was informally named the "inflated plain" by USGS researcher Lisa Morgan, who organized surveys of the lake beginning in 1999. In mapping the entire lake, she and her colleagues identified a region about 2,000 feet long that rises about 100 feet above the lake floor. The area is in the northern part of Yellowstone Lake, south-southwest of Storm Point. The area is home to many hot springs and the nearby sediments have undergone chemical changes (alteration) due to the flow of thermal water.

Why was it called the "inflated plain"?

Seismic images of the lake sediments in this area show that they were tilted, hinting that the region may have been pushed up or "inflated." The amount of inflation would be much less than the 100-foot height of the feature, but is currently unknown. The images appear to indicate that the uplift is associated with accumulation of gas from Yellowstone's hydrothermal (hot water) system. Similar inferred gas accumulations were also noted elsewhere within the lake. Future research will assess the amount of uplift and its origin, whether by gas buildup or other potential mechanisms.

<snip>

What's a hydrothermal explosion?

Hydrothermal explosions occur when water that feeds Yellowstone's geysers and hot springs is explosively flashed to steam, breaking rocks and throwing them into the air. Small hydrothermal explosion events occur every few years at Yellowstone, mostly in the geyser basins, and usually pose little hazard. There is geologic evidence for a few large hydrothermal explosions, some leaving craters thousands of feet across near Yellowstone Lake and in other areas of the park. Such large explosions have not occurred within the last several thousand years. Two classic papers discuss evidence for hydrothermal explosions at Yellowstone, both in the geyser basins (Muffler et al., 1971) and beneath Mary Bay in Yellowstone Lake (Wold et al., 1977).

<snip>

Is anybody assessing the hazards from new hydrothermal explosions?

A geologic hazard assessment of Yellowstone National Park is underway by YVO. The assessment will evaluate the known and potential hazards at Yellowstone from earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and hydrothermal explosions. Any new information on Yellowstone Lake will be made available to YNP officials and the general public.

http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/new.html

Link to Yellowstone Volcano Observatory:

http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/

[jus_the_facts]

6. Yep...been readin' about this for several months....

...glad to see it's in more mainstream news finally! :scared:

[JailForBush]

7. Yellowstone and Seattle are very dangerous places.

Screw Seattle; if Mt. Rainier wiped it out, it would be a blessing. I think a Yellowstone eruption would be a far more violent event, affecting a truly vast area.

On a bit of a tangent, there's an interesting book about the perils of Yellowstone. I think it's called "Death in Yellowstone," or something like that. Considering the vast numbers of visitors the park receives, it's only natural that some die of heart attacks and other common diseases and accidents.

But the natural hazards are amazingly diverse. One of the most touching stories was about a guy who's dog jumped into a thermal pool. Without thinking, the guy jumped in to save it. The next minute, he was headed back to shore, already knowing that he was dead - cooked alive. I could imagine his last thoughts, "WHY did I do such a stupid thing, and how much of my life can I recall in the ten seconds I have left?"

I worked for the National Park Service in Grand Teton the year a woman was eaten alive by a bear. I heard the story third-hand from a tourist, who related how other visitors shivered in their tents as they listened to her screams.

Of course, those are freak accidents. In general, Yellowstone is a beautiful and fascinating environment, and its greatest perils are Republicans.

[opihimoimoi]

8. That pesky Osama and his band of Al Queda Boys are most likely

in this somewhere. They prolly pumping the area up with some kinda gass. WTHKz

[EV1Ltimm]

18. lol...

i'm getting visions of osama bin laden with a bicycle pump over a geyser...

[Cicero]

60. Naw, its that earthquake machine GWB has...

...tested it out in California (small quake, just a beta run), then in Iran (bigger quake, killing a lot of pesky Muslims in the process, call it a User Acceptance Test). Next, the real thing. Yellowstone goes boom, rain of death for hundreds of miles, blame it on Osama, declare martial law, GWB declared Prez-for-life, "...human sacrifice, dog and cats living together, mass hysteria!" :eyes: :crazy:

Later,

[maggrwaggr]

14. "If Mt. Ranier wiped out Seattle it would be a blessing" you say

what the hell kind of statement is that?

[Coventina]

19. What is wrong with you????

You want millions of people to die?

That is sick!!!

[Looiewu]

31. What kind of sick creature....

...would wish that on any city? Just goes to show that there are all kinds of crazies everywhere.

I would suggest that you keep those sick comments to yourself.

[hlthe2b]

23. then there is the sheer stupidity of tourists...

such as the ones who will try to mount their toddler on a wild bison's back for the ultimate picture. Tourists routinely stick limbs in the thermal pools...Heaven knows, what they were thinking...

[Zero Gravitas]

26. What are they thinking?

They don't. Most people don't think at all if they can avoid it. This explains support for George W. Bush, SUVs, and Friends.

[HawkerHurricane]

35. Don't remind me...

Dad tells me the latest horror stories when he comes to visit.

Like the ranger who caught a woman putting honey on her 3 year old son's face, so she could get a picture of the bear licking his face...

The Rangers keep score every year of tourists injured to animals injured. An injury is defined as something that sends the tourist to the hospital or that usually leads to the animal being destroyed.
Last summer, the score was (If I remember correctly)
Tourists 7
Bison 3

Tourists 12
Deer 8

Tourists 1
Bears 2

Tourists 0
Hot Springs 5

[UTUSN]

53. This Thread Reminds Me

********QUOTE*******
(HawkerHurricane Set Me Straight on Tinfoil) Put Away the Tinfoil. As I've said before, my Dad works in Yellowstone every summer as a Ranger/Geologist; his posting for the last 2 years has been the Geyser Basin at Old Faithful.

There is no evidence of increased volcanic activity in the park.

The first sign of increased activity will be a major increase in the number of Grad Students visiting the park, looking for thesis material.

The last warning will be the same Grad Students, fleeing the park, looking for a safe spot to observe from.
"Last one out of the park is a future archeological find!"

**********UNQUOTE********

[pinniped]

49. Don't forget the ones who go over/under the guard railing at Grand Canyon.

to get their picture taken only to fall off.

[lumpy]

25. Screw Seattle?

Thank you very much. Puget Sounders have been very much aware for many years that Rainier could blow. The whole state of Washington and neighboring states would suffer from a Rainier eruption. " Screw Seattle" statement is uncalled for. You have a problem that Seattle is loaded with Democrats? You should apologize for such a statement.

[maxsolomon]

37. shut up, dave

jail4bush is a local seattle education activist who's pissed at our apathy. so don't take him too seriously.

rainier won't take out seattle; you don't understand what type of volcano it is. it will slump, melt one of the glaciers, & send a lahar down valley - seattle will get buried under ash, but the lahar will only kill 1000's of suburbanites in the area around buckley, puyallup, sumner. its happened 1000's of times, and its not that active; don't count on it in your miserable lifetime. its not mt. etna, with pretty lava running down it.

as to yellowstone: get scared, americans! shopping is the only thing that keeps the fear at bay!

[Ediacara]

41. "I think a Yellowstone eruption would be a far more violent event"

Yes it would. Yellowstone is a rhyolitic volcano, and Rainier is Andesitic. Andesite is more fluid than rhyolite, and requires MUCH less energy to cause an eruption. I have heard estimates of a Yellowstone eruption being thousands of times more energetic (and as a result destructive) than Mt St Helens.

The eruption, would not kill THAT many people right away, as the USGS should be able to give ample warning, and hopefully people will have had the foresight to evacuate, or better yet, will have been forced to evacuate.

The problem is..... what WILL kill people is crop failure. Crops will either be smothered by feet of hot glass fragments (ash), or will be incinerated in continent-wide brush fires.

The US and Canada will need to get UN food aide, and badly.

[IMayBeWrongBut]

9. Wow, another exciting way for the world to end...

All these doom stories are really starting to get to me... :(

[HawkerHurricane]

10. Somebody better tell my Dad about this...

Him being a geologist and all, and spending his Summers in Yellowstone every year for the past 10 years, working in the geyser basins...
SOMEBODY better tell him about the volcano danger there, since every time I ask him about it he tells me the same thing...
That the danger is greater in the Cascades than in Yellowstone, and nobody worries about them.

[IndianaGreen]

11. Your dad is right, Hawker

The danger in the Cascades is far greater, and perhaps more imminent than it is in Yellowstone.

The problem with Yellowstone is that it may well be dangerous to tourist. The government is more interested in tourist dollars for itself and for the neighboring communities than in the safety of the visitors.

[HawkerHurricane]

12. Hah, the Government already won that case...

US Geological Survey has this nasty habit of telling the truth, and dang the consequences.
They got in a lot of trouble when they predicted the possible eruption of Mammoth Mountain (home of many ski resorts), causing much panic and canceling of ski vacations.
When the Mammoth Business roundtable sued US Geo Survey for thier 'false and misleading claim' it was thrown out of court; the judge ruled that the US Geo Survey had done nothing wrong by publicly announcing it's concerns.

Yellowstone is dangerous for tourists; not because of a possible volcanic eruption, but because the animals are not Disney critters, the weather is subject to sudden change, and boiling water is not safe to swim in just because it's in a national park.

[hatrack]

28. You may not remember the Teton Dam collapse of 1976

11 people died and four towns were wrecked when BuRec built an earthfill dam in an unbelievably awful location on the Teton River, despite warning after warning from the USGS that the site was unstable and leaky. It promptly collapsed less than six months after its "completion".

However, politics and subsidies almost always trump geology, USGS findings notwithstanding.

[HawkerHurricane]

32. The point being...

That USGS will not remain silent. They like controversy, it seems. I can't picture that they would change, even with Bushco in charge, since most of the Geologists have guarenteed private sector jobs in the oil and mining business if they should go public.

[Soloflecks]

20. Yeah, but

remember David Johnston, the USGS volcanologist who died on Mt. St. Helens. It's a very dangerous business.

[HawkerHurricane]

33. Extremely dangerous

I was just reading about the man he had replaced, who died recently when another volcano erupted. Geologists love volcanos, they can't stay away, but they don't keep quiet about what they find.

[UTUSN]

54. Repeating

********QUOTE*******
(HawkerHurricane Set Me Straight on Tinfoil) Put Away the Tinfoil. As I've said before, my Dad works in Yellowstone every summer as a Ranger/Geologist; his posting for the last 2 years has been the Geyser Basin at Old Faithful.

There is no evidence of increased volcanic activity in the park.

The first sign of increased activity will be a major increase in the number of Grad Students visiting the park, looking for thesis material.

The last warning will be the same Grad Students, fleeing the park, looking for a safe spot to observe from.
"Last one out of the park is a future archeological find!"

**********UNQUOTE********

[7th_Sephiroth]

13. lets hope

that this can hold off til bush is out of office, we need a really strong goverment that cares about its people should it really be as bad as everything in a 600 mile radius dieing

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

15. the Discovery Channel

had a great show on this a year or so ago. a geologist had noticed that the lake was shifting. they had ancient bones (from cattle i think) that had ash residue from the previous eruption and these bones were found in nebraska. according to the research these cattle died from the ash as it only found in the ribs after getting into the lungs.

[jmcgowanjm]

21. That every awesome place is subject to regular upheaval

at regular intervals.

Name a major city, park, or phenomena
not on a geologic "edge."

Moscow?

[underpants]

22. bulging magma

Yikes!! :scared:

[hlthe2b]

24. they say a big blow will wipe out life for 600 miles: Denver is 580 miles

So, am I done for? ('guess misery will have company)

[EV1Ltimm]

27. go to the springs...

that'll put you at 640 miles

:)

[denverbill]

29. Like living in the Springs would be preferable to death.

Maybe I could get a job with Focus on the Family or Promise Keepers.

[EV1Ltimm]

34. didn't they just name that stretch of 25 after reagan as well?

[The Commie]

38. This is scary sh!t!!!

I heard about this a year ago and, although I live outside the 600 mile radius, Western Minnesota is gonna get covered in ash (think of the pictures of the ash-choked city from the Monserrat Island eruptions) so we will have an agricultural disaster here. I wonder how a super-eruption would reshape the park? I am scared about Ranier, but it would be JUST be similar to Mt. St. Helens, Yellowstone would be 100 times worse, Even worse than the eruption that formed Crater Lake. :scared: :nuke:

[Bandit]

39. " A dead zone is developing and spreading outward."

Could be describing America in general. Reminds me of Mordor. Republicans are starting to resemble orcs more every day.

[Ediacara]

40. Not to be a voice to reason.....

But the USGS thinks this is a rather low priority and than an eruption is NOT imminent. Neither do any professional geologists in the geology departments in any university in Montana, Idaho, or Wyoming.

It's unusual yes, and the hot ground around the Norris Basin is alarming, but it's not a sign of an upcoming eruption necisarily. When you seen tens of millions of dollars of NEW seismic equipment rushed into the park, and then the geology depts removing their staff and students, THEN you can start worrying about a Yellowstone eruption.

[hatrack]

42. And even if an eruption WERE imminent - what could you possibly do?

The eruption of Tambora in 1815 was enough to cancel summer for most of the Northern Hemisphere in 1816, and Tambora was tiny compared with the potential ash and dust output of a catastrophic Yellowstone eruption. Being out of the initial blast radius wouldn't make too much of a difference for probably millions and millions of people.

Given the truly global effects of a super-eruption, why worry? It's totally beyond our control anyway.

[The Commie]

43. How could you say such a thing?

If we know an eruption is coming we need to evacuate the 600 mile radius and prepare the midwest, southeastern Canada and northeastern US for lots of dust.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

45. Are you serious?...

How would you safely evacuate millions of people, and where would they stay on a temporary basis?

Additionally, we're not talking about "lots of dust" over a very small portion of the globe. The dust from this type of catastrophic eruption would completely block out the sun, causing temperatures to drop dramatically. This in turn would cause a long-lasting winter condition for the ENTIRE globe for at least a year, possibly more.

Crops would fail with no way to grow enough to feed a population that would quickly fall victim to starvation. Chaos would break out as localities with adequate supplies of canned goods tried to protect those supplies from those who would seize them by force.

Likewise, entire stocks of domesticated food animals would die without adequate food and protection from the intolerable winter conditions.

During that period of time, billions of humans would perish worldwide because of inadequate food supplies and lack of insulated housing/clothing.

"Lots of dust"? Not hardly. The 600-mile radius is just where the IMMEDIATE impact of an super-eruption would be felt. The overall impact would be worldwide and catastrophic.

[The Commie]

51. You are exaggerating the threat.

Most of the dammage will be in the 600 mile radius, the high atmosphere dust will just create a longer version of the Tambora eruption, cool summers for a few years, intensely red sunsets, and some minor acid rain in some locations. It will a regional, not global, disaster. Massive crop failures in the US and Canada, yes. Billions dead, no. A million dead at the most.

[rman]

56. the dust and thus the cool summers will be global

dust from smaller eruptions do affect the weather globally. why do you think this will just be regional?

[Ediacara]

55. Well the people that would be killed with ash

Could be evcuated, and would number under 2 million, the rest, well, who knows....

[midnight armadillo]

59. story on this

http://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/articles/2003/12/07/news/03whassupbzbigs.txt

[0rganism]

44. Nature's immune system trying to get rid of the snowmobiles?

I dunno, it just seems like whenever humans get too cocky, the planet does something to remind us that the biosphere is really a very tiny fragile thing.

[EV1Ltimm]

46. snopes chimed in..

http://www.snopes.com/science/volcano.asp

drats... i was hoping to live in post-apocalyptic denver where everyone wears gas masks and wields swords.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

47. Looks like Snopes is smart enough to admit when they're out of their...

...depth from a scientific viewpoint.

[Spider Jerusalem]

48. More on Yellowstone supervolcano:

transcript of BBC program from a few years ago, for those who are interested: http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/1999/supervolcanoes_script.shtml

[The Undertaker]

52. No need to worry about it....

I've read a lot of research papers on this, so I have a fair amount of knowledge in this area. Being a geology student in college helps a little too. :)

Yellowstone erupts on average 600,000 years, and yes, it may be due, but, it could be another 100,000 years before any major volcanic activity happens, or it could happen tomorrow.

As a geology student, I urge you all to not worry about it. Yellowstone is sitting on top of a hotspot, so it's obviously going to have volcanic activity. This is nothing new.

If there were going to be a major eruption, lots would happen before it, and not this "small" stuff that's going on. For example, two months before Mt. St. Helens blew up in the early '80s, there were major signs that the eruption was coming, such as: strong earthquakes, rising magma, landslides, avalanches, sulfuric acid getting into the water, etc.

If the eruption would occur, then it would be very explosive. For example, the volcanoes on the island of Hawaii have relatively free-flowing lava-basalt-that isn't that explosive. It has low viscosity. On the other hand, Yellowstone has rhyollitic magma, and that magma has very viscous-it's "sticky-like" and flows like taffy that's left out in a hot day. If Yellowstone were to blow, that magma would be very resistant to explosion, thus making it difficult to explode out of the supervolcano, and ultimately, when it does, it will be very explosive. That's why the North Face of Mt. St. Helens blew off. The magma there is viscous (not as viscous as Yellowstone.) So when YS does explode, the whole midwest will literally be in a nuclear winter.

IMO, there's no need to worry about it right now.

[Dogmudgeon]

57. Worry, no. Study, yes.

It is possible that the Yellowstone volcano poses an immanent threat, but we don't have any idea of how likely it is.

On the other hand, the national park service and the USGS have been telling us that everything's OK, not to worry about it.

What we ought to be doing is sending as many geologists out to Yellowstone as we can. If it's going to explode soon, we will need to know as soon as possible. If it's not going to explode, then it presents probably the best opportunity for volcanologic studies since the creating of Surtsey (?) island in the late 60s.

It's like the recent "black spot" on Jupiter. Under most circumstances, it would be the biggest thing since Shoemaker-Levy. But since it popped up right after NASA crashed the probe into Jupiter, the pheomenon has been downplayed so as to avoid bad press.

There's also the prospect -- and a fairly likely one, at that -- that the warm-up of the atmosphere and the ocean will cause the North Atlantic Thermohaline circulation to stop. That would bring on a "Little Ice Age" (or maybe even a Real Ice Age) more effectively than five years of post-eruption lava particulate soot. But the ice age thing has been in the papers off-and-on since about 1978, and a big sci-fi disaster movie about it will be out this coming summer.

The end of the world is not immanent. But if we continue to ignore our problems, we will suffer far more than just a little public disquiet.

--bkl

[HawkerHurricane]

58. I sent my Dad, the Ranger Geologist, your link

And here is his reply, with his permission...

"My opinion? Horse shit.

I don't know where to start.

The closed area is about 5 acres, it's in a geyser basin, nothing was
growing there anyway. Plants are not dying, the animals are not leaving. There is no "dead zone."

The water temperature in the lake has not risen, it's extremely cold (under 40 F) except for right over some underwater geysers and hot springs. We're talking about a lake around 15 miles across and 30 miles long with 100 or so places 10 feet in diameter where the surface is a little warmer... not 88 degrees. There is no measurable temperature difference over the bulge in the lake, which may be thousands of years old. There are not "dead fish floating everywhere."

Remember: I was there last summer until Sept 30. I am in contact with a number of people who are there now. Whoever wrote this article is smoking something very, very potent."