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DU underground says I'm too new to open a new thread. :( I hope you don't mind my hijacking yours... I'm working on the text of a speech or a letter to the editor or opinion piece something like that - your feedback is appreciated. Here's the piece:
Is it time to be alarmist yet? Peak production of oil, that sticky black substance responsible for our economy, our lifestyle, our food production system, is upon us. Conservative reports put the peak production date after 2010 but oil production has been in decline for the past four years and many of the expected consequences of hitting the peak are already occuring. The nature of peak oil is such that we cannot prove it has happened until several years after the fact - by which time any hope of taking some action that will avoid the inevitable global chaos to follow is gone. Global warming threatens to inundate coastal cities, melt all of the permanent ice in the northern hemisphere, increase the occurrences of severe weather of all types from hurricanes and tornadoes to droughts and heat waves. Meanwhile the earths human population continues to grow at an exponential rate as we improve the technology that will allow us, that is those of us with the privilege of access, to live longer, to overcome the disease and defects that act as a natural counter-effect to population growth. Technology meanwhile is giving us new ways to manipulate nature to produce the things we think we want. Things like food crops with build in pesticides that we already know will only be effective against the pests for a few years before the targeted pest mutates into something that can handle the new challenge. Nature has had a lot more practice at doing this kind of thing than we have and we can only begin to guess at the kinds of side effects we might introduce.
Is it okay to be alarmist now? Dr. Stuart Newman is seeking a US patent on the technique to combine human genes with those of other animals. Not because he wants to do it but because he wants to stall the industry which is already well on the way to doing it. One company wants to grow human ready organs like hearts and lungs in pigs, you might see that as very noble and useful but when you consider that if we go in that direction we won't stop there.
Is it okay to raise the alarm? The US administration is currently marking its territory by pissing on trees in every corner of the world. Creating resentment and distrust wherever they go. Crushing whatever hope we might have to work together and face the future - dealing with the real challenges before us. Opposition political candidates are, for the most part, unwilling to raise these issues because they don't want to disturb the illusion that most people live under. The illusion that everything is going to be all right, that at just the right moment some new technology will be developed which will save us from ourselves.
Is there any point in raising alarm? The consequences of these crises will be many and varied. Many of them will serve as negative feedbacks - war and starvation will mitigate the population problem, a lower population will extend the oil supply and possible reduce the pollutants we dump into the atmosphere thus slowing the global warming trend. Or maybe atmospheric dust from nuclear war will reverse the global warming trend for a few years. In any of these cases the food supply is likely to be disrupted for millions, perhaps billions of people. We may burn off whats left of our forests and exacerbate the global warming problems burring dirty fuels to cook and stay warm.
Studies of animal populations from bacteria in a petri dish to deer introduced to a lichen covered island indicate that populations tend to overshoot the capacity of their environment, then rather than falling back to a sustainable level they crash. Are humans, is humanity, really above all that? Extinction is a very real possibility.
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