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"We face the real prospect of losing three nations: Tuvalu, neighbouring Kiribati and the Maldives in the Indian Ocean," said Dr Clive Hamilton, the executive director of the Australia Institute think-tank. "Perhaps people will be carrying banners at future Commonwealth Games in memory of the countries that have disappeared beneath the waves."
At first sight Tuvalu, which until independence in 1978 was half of the British colony of the Gilbert and Ellice Islands, conforms to the popular image of a South Seas paradise. Policemen in smart blue shirts and shorts walk the street barefoot, children splash in the lagoon, fishermen haul in fresh tuna and the afternoons are spent smoking, drinking sour toddy and taking a nap. But there is growing anxiety about plans to move the entire population of 10,764 elsewhere.
Saufatu Sopoanga, the deputy prime minister, has first-hand experience of the threat posed by rising sea levels. "I had a big pile of coconuts at the end of my garden and the sea washed half of them away," he said from his office, which overlooks a turquoise lagoon, framed by palm trees. "We were going to cook with them and press them for oil." This month the islanders were shocked when a record tide caused waves to sweep over beaches and salt water to bubble up through the ground, flooding large areas and killing crops. "I had to evacuate my pigs because the water came up to their necks," an islander grumbled, while others gave accounts of catching fish in waterlogged back gardens.
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"Some people are asking what is the point of staying here?" said Enate Evi, the head of the environment department. "The crops that we have depended on for thousands of years are being poisoned by the salt water." Niue, another microstate in the South Pacific, has offered itself as a destination for Tuvanuans. But it has its own problems: in 2004 it was devastated by a cyclone. A remote island in Fiji has also been mentioned as a possible refuge, as has an uninhabited island off northern Australia.
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