Maybe 10 Years Left To Soften Impact Of Catastrophic Melting - CSM

[hatrack]

EDIT

By 2100, spring and summer temperatures in the Arctic could reach levels that trigger an unstoppable repeat performance, they say. Over several centuries, the melt could raise sea levels by as much as 20 feet, submerging major cities worldwide as well as chains of islands, such as the present-day Bahamas. The US would lose the lower quarter of Florida, southern Louisiana up to Baton Rouge, and North Carolina's Outer Banks. The ocean would even flood a significant patch of California's Central Valley, lapping at the front porches of Sacramento.

These estimates may understate the potential rise. The teams say their studies provide the first hints that during the last interglacial period, ice sheets in both hemispheres worked together to raise sea levels, rather than the Northern Hemisphere's ice alone. This raises concerns that Antarctic melting might be more severe this time, because additional melt mechanisms may be at work.

"It sounds bad," acknowledges Jonathan Overpeck, a University of Arizona researcher who led one of the two studies. He notes that rising temperatures are approaching a threshold. But "we know about it far enough in advance to avoid crossing it." The challenge, he and others say, is to take advantage of the remaining window by reducing emissions of greenhouse gases substantially.

EDIT

The new results aren't the end of the story. The researchers will refine the models, improve the measurements, and find other sources of data to verify the modeling. Coral data pointing to sea-level changes in the last warm period remain controversial, the team acknowledges. And the team's assumption that the amount of carbon dioxide would triple by 2100, although moderate among climate forecasts, is not a done deal. It depends on how quickly industrial and developing countries adopt low-emission technologies and take long-term steps to reduce greenhouse gases. But the window for action is relatively short, Dr. Overpeck says. CO2 remains in the atmosphere for more than a century after it's first emitted. And it takes time to implement policies and adopt technologies. Thus for all practical purposes, the tipping point may come sooner than atmospheric chemistry would suggest.

EDIT

http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0324/p01s03-sten.html

[Teaser]

1. Why wouldn't I want a house on the Pennsylvania Coast?

nt

[Richard D]

2. Woo wooo alert

A book that was writen in 1996 by Hank Wesselman talked about this. Chilling that it seems to be coming true.


http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0553378376/sr=8-1/qid=1143225002/ref=pd_bbs_1/002-9006154-0692821?%5Fencoding=UTF8

From Publishers Weekly
While living on the flank of an active Hawaiian volcano between 1985 and 1989, anthropologist Wesselman reports, he had a series of visionary experiences. Projected 5000 years into the future, into the consciousness of a Hawaiian kahuna, or shamanic healer, named Nainoa, Wesselman presumably learned firsthand that Western civilization had been destroyed by a sudden rise in the ocean level. Through his paranormal interactions with Nainoa across the millennia, Wesselman has adventures in the spirit world and also watches as a band of Hawaiian natives who survived the cataclysm sail to the former California coast to rediscover the lost, devastated continent of North America. Fans of Carlos Castaneda's books may relate to these detailed premonitory visions, fleshed out with observations of Hawaiian shamanism. Wesselman lectures on shamanism and witchcraft at Sierra College in California. QPB main selection.
Copyright 1995 Reed Business Information, Inc. --This text refers to the Hardcover edition.

Midwest Book Review
Hank Wesselman's incredible true story begins with a series of vivid dreams he had while living on the flank of an active volcano in Hawaii. Eventually Wesselman became convinced that what he'd experienced were not merely dreams, but a vision encounter with what shamans have long called the "spirit world". In this world Wesselman met a fellow traveler, a Hawaiian Kahuna mystic named Nainoa. What did Nainoa seek from Wesselman? What did the anthropologist have to learn from this exotic traveler from another time and place? Maintaining his scientific objectivity, Wesselman embarked on a mystical journey beyond the boundaries of ordinary consciousness. The result is a fascinating adventure, an exciting discovery, and the story of how a hardheaded scientific realist may have stumbled on an important piece in the puzzle of human evolution. Spiritwalker is an engaging, fascinating work that is on par with the writings of Carols Castaneda. Spiritwalker is highly recommended for the non-specialist general reader, and "must" reading for any serious student of contemporary metaphysics.

[phantom power]

3. I'm voting for "maybe not."

[ramapo]

4. It's a done deal

There is no way that our society, much less the whole world, will undertake the radical changes required to significantly reduce our greenhouse gas emissions over the next decade.

A decade is a blink in time. Think how little has been accomplished since 1996 in terms of environmental progress. Try not to be too depressed when you realize that the past decade has been marked by regressive environmental policies.

From Clinton's cave-in on CAFE standards to American's insatiable appetite for suburban sprawl to the complete lack of any conservation policy, the United States is a train headed downhill with no brakes.

To make matters worse, the world is trying to emulate rather than learn from our mistakes. Look only as far as India and China. Neither emerging power will win any awards for sensible planning or progressive transportation policy. Instead they're just as intent in paving over their country as we have been.

We are a society moved only when smacked squarely in the head by a two-by-four. Even at that, the reaction lasts only as long as it takes for the immediate pain to subside.

Global warning, melting glaciers, rising oceans, are all only a rather meaningless item in the news to most of the citizenry. Few might be in favor, many may voice concern, but virtually nobody (given the masses) will be in favor of making the changes in their lives needed to counteract the causes of climate change.

This coupled with a complete lack of leadership, a general disdain for science, and a political machine solidly for the status quo, means that our society will march on until it is too late.

I told myself 25 years ago that I had better get to see Alaska before it melted. I feel it is already too late because a visit now would not be a celebration of a natural wonder but more like a wake for a terminally ill patient.

It is very sad to anticipate the coming destruction of the Arctic and Antarctic regions with the resulting loss of species. My only comfort is knowing that Mother Earth will eventually put things right.

[Boomer]

5. Eventually anything can happen

>> My only comfort is knowing that Mother Earth will eventually put things right. <<

Even the Permian extinction was put right eventually... after a few hundred million years...

[NNadir]

6. Regretfully, I think you are simply being realistic. n/t.

[RazzleDazzle]

I agree 100% and would add

That even if we did what this scientist would ike us to -- full out compliance with his deepest desires to stop and even correct things -- I feel it's too late to stop quite a bit of horrific destruction in the near future. The models have been accurate except for speed of deterioration. And my sense is that deterioration is only going to speed up. We don't have a century before these changes take place; they are taking place now.

That's not a good reason NOT to implement whatever we can, however we can, but what we'll be doing (one hopes) is limiting the extent and duration (maybe).

[Boomer]

12. We are so far behind the curve

Every time I hear some equivalent to "just ten years before we reach the point of no return" I wonder what brand of Kool-aid they're drinking.

Perhaps it's a way to make statements "politically acceptable" when doomsayers are simply ignored. But as far as I can see, the scientists are ignored anyway, so fudging the truth isn't going to make any difference. But if they really believe we haven't already started on the wild climate ride of no return, I question their scientific judgment.

[RazzleDazzle]

9. dupe -- did my finger stutter?

sorry

[motocicleta]

11. Totally right on the train w/ no brakes

but I think a trip to Alaska is never depressing. For all of us in the lower 48, Alaska is a wildness we simply cannot understand, and climate change isn't gonna suddenly make Alaska less wild than the lower 48.

[Kurovski]

7. K&R.(No Text)

[Nothing Without Hope]

8. See also this thread and the replies to it:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x741403

and this Scientific American report on the published study:
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?chanID=sa003&articleID=0007FA05-10BC-1423-90BC83414B7F0000

[Porcupine]

10. We are on this log ride and there's no staying dry......

everyone on the planet will feel the effects of this.

[bemildred]

13. Maybe in 1960. This is pollyanna horseshit.

The boulder is rolling downhill, ain't nothing going to stop it.