Worse than Chernobyl maybe?
How about worse that putting the entire nation of Bangladesh under water?
Worse than desertification of Spain and Portugal and large portions of France?
Worse than the loss of all the ice caps?
Worse than the shut down of the gulf stream?
Worse than a series of category 5 hurricanes slamming through Central America and southern North America?
Worse than the loss of every glacier in the Himalayas and all of the water supplies in it?
Worse than the collapse of grain production in the central portion of North America?
Worse than the submersion of Florida?
How is it that we have to consider every "mushroom cloud" scenario, from "Saddam's Nukes" to a direct strike on an Iranian nuclear reactor, to "dirty bombs" to "terrorist nukes in shipping containers," even though there is
no evidence that we have come close to even one of these events, but can't generate even a whimper of wonder and trepidation the likely effects of what
is occurring?
I, personally, am sick of hysteria, especially the frankly
sick hysteria of nuclear scare mongering. In this critical emergency we have to try, as difficult as it is, to think remotely clearly. We will not survive without nuclear energy. It's clear and simple.
By the way, before you consider assertions about this catastrophe, you ought to do a little analysis of the fuel burn-up in the reactor, no? Do you know what that means? The breeching of a reactor depends sensitively on that factor. In fact, we have experience with the release of the entire inventory of a nuclear reactor at the end of its fuel cycle. That place was Chernobyl. Representations to the contrary notwithstanding, that event did not wipe out Europe. The fuel in the Chernobyl reactor had an average burn-up of 12 to 14 MW-day/ton from the fuel cycle. The reactor had been operating for 865 days and was an RBMK with continuous fuel loading capacity and a graphite core. The core burned for weeks, offering a special opportunity for the dispersal of all fission products, especially volatiles.
Photographs of structures that experienced
hydrogen bomb blasts are available in Peter Goin's book
Nuclear Landscapes.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0801840783/102-6657056-6860123?v=glance&n=283155Here is a photograph from that book of a concrete bunker that withstood the testing of
Operation Castle, a series of nuclear explosions on the island of Bikini, an island that frequently was the subject of some of the largest nuclear explosions in history:
You may see a larger version of this photograph by clicking on the photos here:
http://unr.edu/homepage/pgoin/nuclear_landscapes.htmSince you are lecturing on the consequences of this psychotic attack by George Bush on this nuclear reactor, (an attack has not happened but which we must contemplate just as we contemplated - at Dick Cheney's behest - a Saddam/Al Queda nuclear attack on
New York) maybe you will include a discussion of what this photograph tells us about the putative nuclear attack and it's likely consequences.
From a technical standpoint, for your analysis of the attack - which I await - I will tell you that the Bushehr I reactor is 915 MWe VVER of Russian design. It is to be built in a containment structure that was initially built by German contractors in the period before the fall of the Shah. As of today, Iran is operating no nuclear reactors, and thus are not at the end of
any fuel cycle. The original Siemens reactors that were being constructed on the site were damaged in the Iran-Iraq war in 1984, but not destroyed, since they are hardened structures. The reactor has not been fueled and obviously therefore has not gone critical.
For the time being, so long as the Iranian nuclear reactor runs - if it ever does so - it will be saving lives. If a psychotic person, including the freaky resident of the White House, decides to use a nuclear weapon, it will be a criminal act, but not especially more criminal than his act in doing
nothing about global climate change. When history is written, should history continue to exist - and there's no assurance it will -
that will be the criminal act he will most be remembered for.
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