Oil prices edge closer to $100-a-barrel

[4dsc]

http://www.ameinfo.com/82397.html

Forget all the $3 a gallon for gas talk, I fully expect to see $4 or more for a gallon of gas before the years up!! Keep the words "demand destruction" in your vocabulary.. But I also wonder just how much American's are will to spend on gas before enough is enough and they(I'm included) will change our driving habits!! Personally, I would pay up to $10 a gallon for gas before it starts hitting the pocketbook real hard..


China crisis

Industry insiders, including Algeria's Energy and Mining Minister Chakib Khelil, consider that with China's continuing growth there is now such a consistent upward pattern in oil prices established that prices reaching towards $100 a barrel are almost certain in 2006.

Ali Bakhtiari, head of strategic planning at Iran's National Oil Company, Dr Colin Campbell, former executive vice president of Total-Fina and Mathew Simmons, an energy investment banker, have stated their belief that global oil production is about to peak.

Chevron CEO David O'Reilly says that half the world's exploitable oil has already been used: 'If it took us 125 years to use the first trillion barrels of oil. We'll use the next trillion in 30 years.'

[Warpy]

1. "boil the frog slowly"

I think it will be two steps up, one step down, two more steps up. Kiss that under $2/gal gas goodbye forever, soon to be followed by under $3.00.

Internal oil company predictions (don't ask) keep saying oil prices will fall within 3 years at the most to the $40/bbl level "due to economic condidtions," but I think those experts are dreaming. I don't see the Chinese or Indians leaving their cars and motorbikes for their bicycles, no matter how bad their economies get when they "correct." It's a pride thing.

I think it'll stay at the $3.50 stage until the end of the year.

[4dsc]

2. a MAJOR depression would make price fall

I know one way that oil price would fall to below $40 and that would be a major depression!! Simply destroy the little savings Americans have and watch most driving come to a halt..

[Warpy]

3. Yes, but that doesn't address the way the pool of drivers

has expanded worldwide. All cities worldwide are now choked with cars and motorbikes, and that is what will keep demand and prices high.

Besides, even the Okies drove jalopies. They sold the horse and wagon.

[cliss]

4. If oil reaches $100/barrel, some things will happen;

1) People will start conserving immediately. They will start forming carpools, start taking public transportation where it's available.

2) Poor people will end up holding the bag. They will not be able to afford the gas any longer. they might not even be able to make it to work; might lose their homes. The car will now become their home.

3) At the same time, now oil exploration on the "fringe" areas will now become profitable. Alberta can start refining its oil tar sands which is quite expensive to refine. Venezuela can do the same thing; even funky old dried-out oil wells in Texas will start pumping. So there will be some relief. Prices will come down.....somewhat....

4) The U.S. will have massive bankruptcies with trucking companies. They are hurting right now. This will make them fold. Even big companies like Freightliner might file. It's going to cause huge transportation problems because our economy is dependent

5) I've read that the U.S. will need about 10 years to re-tool itself for the new dynamics. It's going to take some time. Europe will become stronger from this. They've been beaten with super-high gas prices for decades. They've learned how to cope with it and still succeed.

= our decades of cheap oil haven't benefited us.