Famine, Drought, Death - Welcome To The World Of 550 PPM - Guardian

[hatrack]

Global temperatures will rise by an average of 3C due to climate change and cause catastrophic damage around the world unless governments take urgent action, according to the UK government's chief scientist. In a stark warning issued yesterday Sir David King said that a rise of this magnitude would cause famine and drought and threaten millions of lives.

It would also cause a worldwide drop in cereal crops of between 20 and 400m tonnes, put 400 million more people at risk of hunger, and put up to 3 billion people at risk of flooding and without access to fresh water supplies.

Few ecosystems could adapt to such a temperature change, equivalent to a level of carbon dioxide of 550 parts per million in the atmosphere, which would result in the destruction of half the world's nature reserves and a fifth of coastal wetlands. Many of Professor King's predictions come from a report published by the UK's Hadley Centre, a world leader in climate change modelling, called Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change.

Tony Blair wants governments around the world to set a target of a rise of no more than 2C - equivalent to 450ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere - in global temperatures. This has already been agreed as an upper limit by the EU but Prof King said that this agreement would be difficult, given the refusal of the United States to cut emissions and those of China and India rising as those countries develop.

EDIT

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/green/story/0,,1754436,00.html

[Dogmudgeon]

1. With all due respect to Prof. King ...

... the scenario is beginning to play out right now. The weather has become dangerously less predictable, desertification has accelerated by several orders of magnitude since the 1960s, soil nutrient runoff has become critical in many areas of the world (especially those more likely to be affected by other problems, including poverty), and major changes in the world's oceanic currents are happening right now.

A 1.6°C rise in temperature at the equator has turned into a 5°C increase in the Arctic; during the last warming period during a major climate change, the Arctic temperature rose an astounding 30°C in the space of less than a century (possibly less than a decade).

The worst part is that no matter what Tony Blair or anyone else wants, most of the changes are already inevitable. The Earth doesn't work on short schedule. We've been pouring tons carbon gasses into the atmosphere yearly since the middle of the 1800s. We won't be able to halt the atmospheric change in one or two election cycles.

We should plan for the changes, rather than try to stop them. At least allowing them to progress in a natural sequence will keep the damage to a minimum. The ecosphere has been in an overall die-off since the current period of ice ages began 2.5 million years ago. We've pushed the process as much as we can, and we will pay dearly, but we can still avoid losing most of the population to stupidity in planning. Let us exercise good judgment for once and refrain from doing more damage.

--p!

[brokensymmetry]

2. You're way too optimistic, Pigwidgeon!

I agree with your first points - that we're already past the tipping point, and that the changes are "already inevitable."

But the dieoff - of between 4.5 and 5.5 billion humans - is not something that planning or anything else can avoid. We've got global hunger today; as the availability of agricultural mechanization declines (peak oil), along with climatic problems reducing yields from cereal crops to fisheries, we are so far beyond sustainability that one's breath is taken away.

We've prepared a feast of consequences. I hope humankind has a good appetite.

[NNadir]

3. "He's not going to do it."

He added that perhaps the British could put their own house in order first. "The thing that Dave King and Tony Blair could focus on to underline that message is to start some reductions at home. It's all very well talking about America and China but the reality is that CO2 emissions are going up in this country," said Mr Juniper. "He has been in office now for nine years with a 20% reduction target and he's not going to do it."

Blair is such a disappointment.

[rfkrfk]

10. -->nobody<-- has done anything

why do you single out Blair?,

he seems to be blaming someone else,
just as much as everyone else

edit, typo

[Dead_Parrot]

15. True, but...

When the leader of one of the trillion-dollar economies says stuff like "Climate change is probably, in the long term, the single most important issue we face as a global community - the issue is now very, very critical indeed", it's not unreasonable to expect he might do something. Well, if he wasn't a useless sack of shit, that is.

[phantom power]

16. Yeah. Nobody expects America's mascot chimp in the WH to do anything.

We already know that his handlers have told him that global warming isn't real. And even if he did believe it, he's got an IQ of--what? 80?--so we just don't expect him to solve important problems.

[Dead_Parrot]

17. ....

God help us.

[rfkrfk]

18. do you expect the unwilling to go first?

continental Europeans seem to be the mosr enthusiastic
for greehouse gas limits,
but they do nothing

[Dead_Parrot]

19. This isn't about "going first"

We're not playing fucking Monopoly. That's the sort of feeble whine you'll find over at freerepublic ("why should we cut back before Aruba?"). This is about all of us getting our fingers out now. Including the two-faced rat-bastard in 10 Downing Street.

[rfkrfk]

20. Blair could be gone, by 2008

consider the Kyoto treaty.

the committment period is 2008-2012.
by then Blair could quit or be throw out by his party.
why would TB pick a fight, when it will be
somebody else's problem, he's got enough problems just
staying where he is.

the gov'ts of Canada, Germany, {incoming} Italy, look kinda
weak, so I wouldn't expect anything from them.

with that said, somebody needs to set an example

Aruba is not on annex-one of the Kyoot treaty,
so nothing is expected of them.

nobody takes the EU 20% reduction goal seriously

[Dead_Parrot]

4. Is it just me...

...or is the upper 'limit' getting higher the faster we churn out CO2? :shrug:

[NNadir]

5. A few years ago, the IPCC was talking about hoping to stabilize

at 450 ppm.

I don't think that's gonna happen, and I think we're going to pay.

As we die off, the rate of emissions will go down however. Always look on the bright side of life.

[Dead_Parrot]

6. Worse things happen at sea, I guess.

Especially if you're a coral.

[XemaSab]

8. Methane is a common byproduct of organic decomposition

[Dead_Parrot]

9. Compulsory cremation?

:shrug:
Biofueled, naturally.

[XemaSab]

13. Would't that kick off CO2?

Unless it was in an anoxic environment.... :shrug:

[Dead_Parrot]

14. Hence the use of carbon-neutral biofuel...

It would have to be gathered by hand, though. I wonder if switchgrass make a good pyre? :crazy:

[NNadir]

7. I would like to gratuitously beg my fellow E&E forum members for 2 votes

more for the greatest page.

[veness]

11. K & R. n/t

[cassiepriam]

12. I am going to miss living on this planet. It was a really nice one. :(