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Bearing in mind that so far all scientific predictions have grossly underestimated the pace and intensity of global warming, the conventional yardstick of "by the year 2100" seems a rather coarse measure for predictions. By the end of century our planet may well be changed beyond recognition, but few of us on this forum will be around to witness it and confirm our speculations.
If you believe, as I do, that we have already passed the infamous tipping point in global climate change, what effects are we likely to experience first-hand in our lifetime? In my case, another 50 years is theoretically possible (a few relatives in my family have reached 100), and it's certainly within the reach of many on this forum, so what do you think you are likely to face in your specific country or region as you grow older?
A Few Predictions
Within five years a total collapse of the ocean ecosystem - say good-bye to seafood of any kind; escalating food prices as agricultural yields drop and oil prices rise.
Within the next decade the coastal US will be pounded mercilessly, and at least several major cities (such as Houston or Miami or Norfolk) destroyed. Meanwhile, wild fires and water shortages in the western U.S. will strain community services to the breaking point. Urban riots will break out in summer as increasingly large numbers of people simply can't afford the basic necessities of life and the heat drives people to near-insanity; violent crime escalates as the desperate have-nots begin to rob the have-all-we-wants.
Within 20 years we'll see shortages of food (regardless of price) and the massive depopulation of the Western states as potable water supplies become insufficient to support signficant population density and fires wipe out even more small towns and rural residents. Coastal communities will also be gradually abandoned as rebuilding proves to be economically unfeasible. The rich and super-rich will take advantage of green technologies but the majority of the U.S. population will be too poor to change the infrastructure of their houses or their communities. The U.S. economy collapses as food and energy take all income from the working classes (the middle class having largely disappeared).
Within 30 years, gated communities will need armed guards to protect property of the still-got-stuff. Modest homeowners will be renting out rooms to the displaced to help cover the cost of utilities and everyone who isn't rich will be scrabbling to find enough food to eat. Large-scale agribusiness will fail due to prohibitive energy expenses and adverse local weather events that wipe out entire crops. Even home gardens will begin to falter as hand-tended plants fail to withstand temperature and weather extremes. Wider spread of tropical diseases into what were once temperate climate zones. High casualties from tornadoes, floods, hurricanes, storm surges, mud slides, fires will become routine.
Within 40 years famine -- which has wiped out many third-world populations -- begins to appear in the U.S., especially among the displaced populations that have never managed to recover financial and are living in vast shanty towns that ring every major city. Any form of energy, no matter how dirty or environmentally unsound, will be used to keep the infrastructure running. Increased pollution, contaminated water, along with increased incidences of tropical diseases, cholera, anti-biotic resistant TB and strep, will contribute to plummeting life expectancies.
Within 50 years... I'll be out of the picture entirely. Thank god.
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