Conditions Parallel 2005's - Hurricane Experts Warn Against Complacency

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Enmeshed as they still are in the aftermath of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, disaster planners and hurricane forecasters have no choice but to prepare for this year's possible foes: Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, Ernesto and the rest. All signs point to another severe season, though the ferocity and number of hurricanes is impossible to predict, top U.S. forecasters and emergency planners said yesterday at a symposium in Maryland.

"I think a lot of people say you could never have the same death and damages as we did last season," Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center and Tropical Prediction Center, said during a break in the conference at the Johns Hopkins University campus in Laurel. "I'm here to say it could happen."

Nature is signaling another active season. La Niña is back, judging by telltale cooler water on the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Surface water in the Atlantic, meanwhile, is warmer. Conditions are similar to those recorded ahead of last year's record-breaking string of named storms, said David L. Johnson, assistant administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and director of the National Weather Service.

"I've got a bunch of hardworking scientists who are crunching those numbers right now" and aiming to make their prediction public May 22, about a week before hurricane seasons officially begins, Johnson said.

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/18/AR2006041801608.html