Hybrids' Rising Sun - MIT Technology Review

[hatrack]

EDIT

"And the Prius is only a preview of Toyota’s ambitious plans for the new hybrid technology. By the end of this year, the automaker plans to sell a luxury sport utility vehicle using the technology—a hybrid Lexus—in the United States. Within a decade, say Toyota executives, the gas-electric combination could be offered in every category of vehicle the automaker sells, from subcompacts to heavy-duty pickup trucks. “When Toyota’s SUVs hit the market, and people see what a really powerful hybrid electric vehicle can do, I think it’s going to rattle a few cages,” says former General Motors chairman Robert Stempel, who chairs Rochester Hills, MI-based technology developer Energy Conversion Devices.

You can be forgiven for thinking that fuel cells, which use hydrogen to produce electricity, were the auto industry’s next new thing. GM and other automakers have for years shown off various versions of fuel cell prototypes that do away entirely with the internal-combustion engine (see “Electricity-Producing Vehicles,” TR December 2002/January 2003). But it will be at least five years—and more like a decade, according to many experts—before a fuel cell car is cheap enough for the mass market. Then there’s the challenge of storing sufficient hydrogen, the lack of hydrogen filling stations, and the problem of producing hydrogen in the first place. In contrast, hybrids are available now, and they fuel up at the local pump. Toyota alone expects to sell 130,000 Prius hybrids in 2004. Throw in the hybrid Lexus slated for export and a handful of Japan-only hybrid models, and the company’s sales of gas-electric vehicles should easily top 150,000—a figure that Toyota says could double by 2006. While that is a small fraction of Toyota’s total sales—which hit nearly 6.8 million in 2003—it is still a big number for an unconventional automotive technology.

Indeed, gas-electric hybrids are the first significant break with carmakers’ total reliance on the internal-combustion engine in nearly a century. And the implications of a widespread switchover to gas-electric hybrids are immense for both consumers and the auto industry. Even bumping up the average gas mileage of U.S. vehicles to a modest 40 miles per gallon by 2012 would mean the United States could trim its oil consumption by three million barrels per day—more than it imports from all the Persian Gulf countries. And though buyers would have to pay more initially for gas-electric hybrids, they could save, on average, $5,000 at the gas pump over the 15-year life of a vehicle.

From a business perspective, if hybrids take off in the marketplace, Toyota will almost certainly emerge as the player to beat, thanks to its hefty investment in the technology over the last decade. “They have seized the high ground,” says Rich Schaum, a former chief engineer at Chrysler. “It’s a long-term strategy which may force the hands of their competitors.” Indeed, as recently as three or four years ago, GM, the world’s largest automaker, was characterizing hybrid cars as a pit stop on the road to fuel cells. But last year GM announced it would have the manufacturing capability to build as many as one million hybrids by 2007, if buyers want them, and that by 2008, it would build three basic hybrid architectures—the platforms for as many as a dozen hybrid car and truck models. Most major automakers plan to bring hybrids to market in the next five years (see “Hybrids Head for Showrooms,” sidebar); still, these other manufacturers are badly trailing Toyota, and some competitors are even turning to Toyota’s technology: GM and Ford Motor are buying key hybrid parts, such as nickel-metal-hydride batteries and sophisticated transmissions, that were developed by Japanese suppliers in partnership with Toyota."

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http://www.technologyreview.com/articles/fairley0404.asp

[IrateCitizen]

1. US auto companies = dinosaurs in the tar pit

You would have thought that after the way in which the US auto industry was sent reeling during the 1970's oil crises, in which people began to flock toward smaller, more fuel-efficient European and Japanese vehicles, they would have learned something.

Alas, as this proves, they have learned absolutely nothing.

One must wonder what kind of advances GM and Ford might have made had they invested just a portion of the funds into research and development that they threw toward lawyers and lobbyists to fight every attempt to raise fuel economy standards. Now, Toyota is poised to seize the high ground in the hybrid market, with Honda none too far behind. One only wonders what will happen if we have another serious oil crisis (which is inevitable, IMHO) and people shed their Expeditions and Yukons for hybrid cars and SUV's.

You don't think that the US auto companies will come crawling, hat-in-hand, insisting on taxpayer-funded bailouts to keep them from going under and becoming "competitive" once again, do you? :grr:

[hatrack]

2. In 1995, GM spent $65 million on advertising for the Silverado

That's right, $65 million for one advertising campaign for one pickup truck.

You can hire a lot of engineers and designers for $65 million.

But why would you go and do that when your "proven business model" shows that bigger n' better SUVs and trucks (with more cupholders & DVD players) are the only profit center you have left?

[phantom power]

3. the other half

And don't forget the other half of the reaction: the inevitable (re) demonization of japanese cars.

I was only in grade-school at the time, but I clearly remember the backlash against japanese auto companies, especially among the blue-collar workers who were losing their jobs to the competition.

What's sad is that they were taking their anger out on the wrong people. They should have been burning effigy for their own CEOs.

Like you say, we haven't learned a damned thing. Pretty pathetic, considering it wasn't that long ago. It isn't as though nobody in living memory experienced it the first time.

[NNadir]

7. Ain't it the truth?

[cprise]

4. Is Honda behind? Hmmm, maybe not...

52mpg Honda Accord
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x5914

Also Volkswagen has been selling their 95mpg Lupo 3L in Europe for a few years now, and their Passat TDI goes on sale in the US next month.

Perhaps the best of all designs would see VW's TDI engine married to a hybrid drivetrain. For now though they have a comfortable lead in both efficiency and production cost.

[Ricdude]

6. VW TDI + hybrid drivetrain would be overkill

You could get away with a much smaller engine, that would be inherently more efficient. The engine in the Lupo is a three cylinder diesel engine that is just incredibly efficient.

I have a TDI new beetle, and regularly get 45-48 mpg with average suburban driving. And unlike the current round of hybrids for sale in the US, it can be operated on renewable, domestically produced, biodiesel. I purchased it just under a year ago. Care to guess what the major contributing factors in that decision were?

[cprise]

8. Hi Ricdude

I use biodiesel as well! It's pretty rare here on DU for someone to be using any form of renewable energy in their own car.

Do you hang out at tdiclub.com or biodieselnow.com?

I think the engine used in the 3L would work well in a hybrid mid-size car or pickup truck.

[Ricdude]

9. Hi cprise

1) Wouldn't it be cool if the hybrids could run on E85, too? =) Too many years reading Popular Science, and dreaming of the day we'd be driving solar powered cars. Now I do...

2) Yes, both tdiclub and biodieselnow (over a year at each). I thought you smelled familiar. =)

3) Now that you mention it, the 3L would be good as a diesel engine in a hybrid system. For the small cars, though it's hard to argue with an engine that can acheive 85 mpg (I think the 92 mpg is in imperial gallons, which are a little smaller than US gallons).

[Wells]

10. Hybrids always superior....

..for many reasons.

The battery pack element has many considerations. The larger the pack, the smaller the engine. The ability to charge the pack from the grid can further reduce the use of the IC engine. The battery weight lowers the vehicle center-of-gravity improving stability. The battery industry is viable and worth supporting.

The IC engine works less when paired with electric generator and motor-drive, reducing emissions, gaining longevity.

It's the longevity that the Big 3 fear most.

And, don't ever forget that we drive too much, too far, for too many purposes. This alone is unsustainable and has far more harmful impacts to our quality of life than tailpipe emissions.

[Atlant]

11. Up to a point...

> Hybrids always superior for many reasons.
> ...
> The larger the pack, the smaller the engine.

That's true up to the point where wind resistance and rolling/mechanical
friction/incidental loads equals the output of the engine. At that point,
you won't be able to sustain any greater speed for an indefinite period
of time no matter how big the battery pack. It's that factor (top sustainable
speed) that sets the lower limit on IC engine size.

Another aspect of this is that, on the highway, at steady speeds, the
non-hybrid could actually win the economy race because the hybrid
has (at least slightly) more losses between the gas tank and the wheels.
Of course, most of us who drive in the real world will probably do
better with the hybrid.

Atlant

[uberotto]

5. The Trip Meter on my Civic Hybrid is showing...

that I've traveled 540 miles so far on this current tank of gas. The Gas Gauge is sitting at 1/8 of a tank left, and the Average MPG is showing 46.9 MPG. I've still got probably 30 to 40 more miles to go before I decide to put another 12 gallons of gas in the car.

I don't care if gas prices drop to 10 cents a gallon, I'll never go back to the old gas guzzler cars I used to lust after. Driving a Hybrid is way too much fun.