Science tempers fears on climate change (new draft IPCC forecast)

[jpak]

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20332352-601,00.html

THE world's top climate scientists have cut their worst-case forecast for global warming over the next 100 years.

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For the first time, scientists are confident enough to project a 3C rise on the average global daily temperature by the end of this century if no action is taken to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

The Draft Fourth Assessment Report says the temperature increase could be contained to 2C by 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions are held at current levels.

In 2001, the scientists predicted temperature rises of between 1.4C and 5.8C on current levels by 2100, but better science has led them to adjust this to a narrower band of between 2C and 4.5C.

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[Buzz Clik]

1. Great post.

[theophilus]

2. Wow! Great News......

if true. My "gut" tells me it isn't true, though. I have been following the effects of climate change for several years and the rate seems to be speeding up. This has been the case with many indicators. There has already been much degradation and the human impact, on many levels, is ever accelerating. Maybe the ocean level will only rise a few inches in a hundred years. The temps may only go up four degrees. The forests and the reefs might escape any serious damage. The major ocean currents might remain constant. Population might continue its climb. All may be well...............but I seriously doubt it.

I'm afraid this more optimistic report will soon be thrown on the dust heap of painful experience.

We shall see.....

[Double T]

3. In bushco's 'fantasy world' green house gas emissions will be held........

to current levels. World populations continue to increase at an astronomical rate with vehicles and industry increasing in numbers to support those populations. Pollution and emission standards are being relaxed by governments such as the USA, as they bow to the corporations. This is 'bullsh-t' science and another sellout by the scientific community that has probably been threatened with funding cuts or elimination by the rethug politicos, as elections draw closer. I long for the day when REAL economists and scientists are once again in charge.

[Dead_Parrot]

4. Encouraging, but a little premature.

GENEVA, 2 May 2006 - In wake of several premature reports that have appeared recently in the media concerning “findings” of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, co-sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme), the IPCC would like to clarify that the process leading up to the 2007 release of its 4th Assessment Report is long, complicated and far from complete. The IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4) becomes available in 2007 and will provide comprehensive and up-to-date information about climate change, its causes, impacts and possible response measures based on the latest scientific technical and socio-economic literature. AR4 will consist of three Working Group contributions and a Synthesis Report.

http://www.ipcc.ch/press/pr02052006.htm
Emph. mine