Stormy world of energy has a clear forecaster

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Houston was rocking and rolling in 1980, with oil at $40 a barrel and some people in the industry predicting it would soar to $100.

One of the few dissenting voices, Henry Groppe Jr., forecasted that by 1985 oil would fall to $15.

"This guy's a nut," Houston energy analyst Matt Simmons recalled an oil executive telling him then. "He ought to be locked up in a straitjacket."

The comment made Simmons laugh because, he said, Groppe is exceptionally calm and gracious.

To avoid a global crisis, Groppe thinks that Americans should use the next 10 years, a time in which production output is expected to peak, to transition into new energy-usage habits.

"We must rely more on nuclear power and alternative energy supplies and use all energy more efficiently," he said.

He is no fan of ethanol, which he calls "pure farm-bloc subsidy." The energy spent on producing it is greater than the output, he said, "not to mention depletion of the topsoil."

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/4174409.html