http://www.howestreet.com/articles/index.php?article_id=3185The Industry – There is upward pressure on uranium prices because of dwindling supplies of this commodity and the realization that there is likely to be a squeeze on supplies over the next two or three years. If mining projects could immediately respond to higher uranium prices, there would be no problem. Problem is, it takes many years to put a uranium mine into production even in instances where historical reserves are known to exist. If nuclear power plants could convert to an alternative fuel, we would not be facing the prospects for a uranium shortage. If we had more uranium enrichment plants, some of the strain would be taken off the potential emergency that exists. But as with new mining projects, construction of new enrichment facilities takes years to gain approval if approval is to be gained at all.
The latest U3O8 price quote I have received was $55.75. In nominal terms, that is a new high. But in real terms—taking into consideration the lost purchasing power of our steadily depreciating dollar—we are a long way from the all-time high for U3O8. In fact, we would need to see uranium prices of $108.45 today to equal the highs before the Three Mile Island scare tanked the nuclear power industry. It would not surprise me if that old high is taken out during this bull market, because the supply-and-demand fundamentals are so very compelling.
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New uranium production accounts for a little over 50% of the fuel needed. In 2005, 200 million pounds of uranium were consumed, but only 100 million pounds were produced. The shortfall has been made up by secondary sources, which include fuel from dismantled nuclear weapons, but those supplies are expected to dwindle over the next few years. As new nuclear power generation is brought online, the disparity will only increase with conservative estimates of 11% shortages for the years 2006 and 2007. The shortfall that results from production that cannot keep up with demand is expected to continue for the next decade.
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