Tom Whipple (Falls Church News Press) Audio Interview

[Strelnikov_]

http://www.electricpolitics.com/podcast/2006/12/down_to_the_last_cheap_drop.html

The idea that oil is going to get scarce, soon, otherwise known as Peak Oil, has been around for decades but only in the last several years has it caught the attention of a significant minority in the energy business. It's difficult, still, to find a non-scientist or non-engineer who can speak clearly to the facts, even more so to find one who can who hasn't become a catastrophist, and next to impossible to combine the above in somebody with sure knowledge of the policy process. So I got lucky, I think, to talk with Tom Whipple, a retired senior CIA analyst, who's not only an expert on energy, particularly petroleum, but who has a big-picture, pragmatic grasp of the problem. Tom talks sense without minimizing the dangers. For more from Tom see his regular column on Peak Oil in the Falls Church News Press and the newsletter he edits for ASPO-USA. His is an important message, please take heed. Total runtime of one hour and six minutes.

Highlights:

Min +/-
15 - Third world demand destruction
22 - Carter/Gas Taxes
28 - CAFE/Electrification
30 - 'Sudden Shutoff' Threat (see below)
36 - Concept of 'Peak Imports' (see below)
55 - Russian 'Nationalization' (see below)
58 - Gas price influence on 08 Election

Regarding Russian seizure of projects, he introduced a concept I had not encountered before, that the Russians are seizing these projects because of perceived gouging on cost plus contracts (Ex: Connex-Killean agrees to develop Tengiz Block A for $10 B cost plus, suddenly raises 'cost' to $20 B, meaning revenue sharing with host country does not begin until $20 B 'cost' has been recouped through oil sales).

'Peak Imports' is really the sleeper issue for a country that imports 65% of it's fix.

'Sudden Shutoff' is why I learned to stop worrying and embrace geologic 'Peak Oil'.