And How Is Saudi Arabia Getting Along? (Cross-post From The Oil Drum)

[hatrack]

When I wrote about some of the stories that are likely to be discussed over the next year, one of those that I mentioned is the delay before we see further increases in production from KSA. In the piece I quoted from the Arab News about the latest projections of Aramco production increases over the next two years. While there has not been much change in the total projected production over the last eighteen months, there have been some, as the Kingdom has moved toward a goal of 130 rigs operating there by May of this year. Over the time we have posted here, we have quite often revisited the planned production increases from the Kingdom, and so I thought it worth having a quick look to see how things are going.

EDIT

Further when the CERA list on which it appears was reviewed here in Sept 05, Interloafer quoted Matt Simmons in expressing some cynicism about Aramco ability to sustain the higher levels of production projected for these fields. Peter Jackson, of CERA, disagrees (pdf file) The project currently appears to be on schedule.

Now it should be born in mind that the Saudi Strategic Energy Initiative is to have enough spare capacity to be able, by June of this year, to replace Iran’s production, should there be a problem. And, for this reason, it is perhaps a little presumptive to assume that they are currently producing at a maximum level. However, it should be noted that this also assumes that the three-field increased production will be on line by that time. As noted above, it now appears that it will be later in the year before this happens.

Musing about these numbers, what struck me was that we are now seeing increments in production coming from multiple fields rather than just further development of a single one. After the first new increment for Shaybah comes on line, work for which is now underway, (but which may now be only 200,000 bd by April of 2008, with another 300,000 bd being added by 2010) the next development, Khurais, is also going to be a three-field project . It will also include the Abu Jifan and Mazalij fields, and will need injection of an additional 4.5 mbd of treated water into those fields to achieve that production level.

And to achieve the target production Aramco has added another field, Nuayyim, which is anticipated to produce 100,000 bd by February 2009. This schedule has been accelerated over earlier projections.

EDIT

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2138#more

[phantom power]

1. All this water injection scares the crap out of me.

Talk about unsustainable production.

[Dogmudgeon]

2. The five largest oil fields in the world ...

... aren't just in decline; they have all been described as in a state of "collapse". According to the EIA, the overall oil production has been flat at just under 85 Mbbl/d since 3Q2005, over a year.

The Oil Drum has faithfully reported on this.

We in North America and Europe shouldn't just enjoy the warm winter; we should consider offering virgin sacrifices in thanks. But even as I write this, the news has come that at long last, a dome of high-pressure (1050 mb+), super-cold air is forming over the North Pole -- in other words, a normal wintertime meteorological sign has appeared.

A prolonged cold snap from late January to, say, early Spring, could complicate matters severely. Fortunately, we have The Christ Child -- El Niño -- to keep us warm this winter. And if not exactly warm, well, then, warmer.

In many ways, these little blessings will prove to be curses. Favorably warm winter weather over the past decade, aggressive water-injection and in situ acid fractioning of oil fields and other methods of goosing production, tapping into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to offset the post-Katrina American oil production loss, and a steady flow of cheery press releases from alt-energy startups has encouraged us to avoid the problems that await us.

At some point, our questionable "luck" is going to run out.

--p!

[brokensymmetry]

4. Very well said, Pigwidgeon. I can add nothing. n/t

.

[amandabeech]

3. The OIl Drum is terrific.

I highly recommend it to anyone interested in energy issues, particularly oil and gas supply.

[profgoose]

5. Thanks... :)

Thank you all for the kind words about TOD and your support on these issues. Hey, all I can say is that we're trying.

Of course, with the price signal dropping, it's going to become more difficult to convince people that there's a problem...which just makes our job tougher.

All we can do is spread the word, right?

Cheers,
PG

[Strelnikov_]

6. And Thank You

for providing what is one of the most valuable energy discussion sites on the internet. I appreciate how it bridges the divide between the petrocollapse and technofix crowd.

And the 'price signal' issue is why I feel a top down approach to energy planning is required. An approach that is much more likely to come from the 'left' side of the spectrum.

In the coming world of energy scarcity, the current ‘free-market’ dynamic will be incapable of providing a relatively stable energy supply. We will need a diverse, redundant and integrated energy infrastructure that will require planning and coordination far beyond what ‘market signals’ (ie: price) can provide.

In particular, the energy infrastructure of the future will have to include redundancy, since most renewable energy sources introduce intermittent availability that is not present with our current 'mined' fossil sources. Mothballed capacity and stockpiles are not a part of a Laissez-Faire system.

[profgoose]

8. I couldn't agree more...

The only way that one can govern any sort of scarce common resource is by either establishing norms (which requires tribal thinking and "being on the same page") or a coercive power setting policy to regulate that source and create the redundancy and the "many silver bb's" that you speak of. (do a search on "governing the commons" by Elinor Ostrom, and of course "Tragedy of the Commons" as well...)

We are used to a "just in time delivery" economy. That kind of economy is dependent on available and fungible resources. The likelihood of maintaining that kind of economy shrinks every day, but it's so slow (much like the death of the middle class) that we don't feel it. Boiling the frog slowly, baby.

And yes, that kind of solution is likely to come from the left side of the spectrum...however, even the D side is chattering about "government being too big." Also, let's not forget, the right has done a very nice job of growing the size of government as well...however, that growth has been the name of preserving order, not to accentuate equality of access to resources for all. Both kinds of government growth tend to lessen freedoms, but I would prefer giving mine up for more equality than to lose my power for fascist ideals.

Just my preference though. :)
PG

[IDemo]

7. peakoil.com gets my recommendation as well

http://www.peakoil.com/gate.html?name=Forums

[profgoose]

9. absolutely...

yep, http://energybulletin.net, http://peakoil.com...there are a lot of voices out there, all trying to outclamor the cornucopians with the resources.

it's a tough job, but someone's gotta do it!