Iran oil exports could dwindle

[jpak]

http://www.theage.com.au/news/Business/Iran-oil-exports-could-dwindle/2007/01/05/1167777251449.html

OPEC member Iran is in danger of slipping down the table of oil exporters and leaving a hole in global supply as output stagnates because of a lack of investment blamed on US sanctions and political interference.

OPEC's second largest producer could lose up to 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) of exports per year as it fails to invest enough to compensate for steep decline rates from oilfields and meet rising domestic demand, analysts say.

A report by academic Roger Stern at US John Hopkins University last week predicted Iran's exports could dwindle to almost nothing by 2015 if it did not change its energy policies.

Iran is the world's fourth largest exporter, shipping around 2.4 million bpd to international markets of its 3.9 million bpd output.

<more>

[jpak]

1. Here's Stern's PNAS report...

http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/104/1/377

The Iranian petroleum crisis and United States national security

Roger Stern*

Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, The Johns Hopkins University, 3400 North Charles Street, Baltimore, MD 21218

Edited by Ronald W. Jones, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY, and approved October 31, 2006 (received for review May 16, 2006)

Abstract

The U.S. case against Iran is based on Iran's deceptions regarding nuclear weapons development. This case is buttressed by assertions that a state so petroleum-rich cannot need nuclear power to preserve exports, as Iran claims. The U.S. infers, therefore, that Iran's entire nuclear technology program must pertain to weapons development. However, some industry analysts project an Irani oil export decline . If such a decline is occurring, Iran's claim to need nuclear power could be genuine. Because Iran's government relies on monopoly proceeds from oil exports for most revenue, it could become politically vulnerable if exports decline. Here, we survey the political economy of Irani petroleum for evidence of this decline. We define Iran's export decline rate (edr) as its summed rates of depletion and domestic demand growth, which we find equals 10–12%. We estimate marginal cost per barrel for additions to Irani production capacity, from which we derive the "standstill" investment required to offset edr. We then compare the standstill investment to actual investment, which has been inadequate to offset edr. Even if a relatively optimistic schedule of future capacity addition is met, the ratio of 2011 to 2006 exports will be only 0.40–0.52. A more probable scenario is that, absent some change in Irani policy, this ratio will be 0.33–0.46 with exports declining to zero by 2014–2015. Energy subsidies, hostility to foreign investment, and inefficiencies of its state-planned economy underlie Iran's problem, which has no relation to "peak oil."

<full text can be found at link>

[ChairmanAgnostic]

2. so, they save a natural resource and wish alternate energy supplies

is that any surprise?
When a distant person decides that he dislikes you and your family, and starts marching up and down the street in front of your home, armed, with heavily armed friends, constantly staring at you and into your windows, what is your natural reaction?

Iran's reactions are absolutely predictable as REACTIONS to aggression from the US and Israel. translation, AEI and AIPAC.

If they had reactors supplying their power needs, I could imagine that they would export even less, saving the oil for future generations. something that we all should be doing, but for big oil and Cheney.