Lawrence Livermore - Expect "Severe Negative Impacts" On California Crop Yields From Warming

[hatrack]

Global warming will have severe negative impacts on California crop yields in the coming years, according to a new study by researchers at the UC-managed Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. LLNL's study, published in the journal Agricultural and Forest Methodology, showed the effects of rising temperatures on six major Californian crops: wine grapes, almonds, table grapes, oranges, walnuts and avocados.

Historically, each of these crops is typically planted only once every 25 to 40 years, so climates have the potential capability to change considerably in the lifetime of individual vines or trees. To investigate the effects of temperature on the crops, scientists put them in 20 different climate settings, each with 2 to 4 degrees Celsius difference in temperature.

The team found that the varied temperatures had little influence on wine grape yields but spurred notably lower yields for the remaining crops in the study. Considering the current harvesting locations and conditions of almonds, table grapes, oranges and walnuts, researchers projected a potential 20 percent decrease in yields by mid-century.

Researchers' temperature intervals mirrored separate findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's third assessment report, which predicted that Earth's average surface temperature will increase between 1.4 degrees Celsius and 5.8 degrees Celsius due to global warming between 1990 and 2100. "We were interested in how the production of crops that are most valuable in California will be helped or hurt by climate change," lead study author David Lobell said in a statement. "So we developed models to simulate how crops respond to the amount of climate change we expect in California."

EDIT

http://ucsdguardian.org/viewarticle.php?story=news03&year=2007&month=01&day=08

[TechBear_Seattle]

1. Worrisome, but...

These are basically luxury items. I would be much more concerned with the effects of a warming climate on wheat, corn, rice and soybean production and the ability to raise livestock

[hatrack]

2. The did talk at some length in the article about corn impacts

How much effect Central Valley corn outcomes would have on the Midwest, I just don't know.

[kineneb]

6. different kinds of corn

I think that most of the corn from the Midwest is feed corn, whereas most of the corn from the Central Valleys is for table consumption. As to grains, remember, California produces quite a bit of rice. I have to drive by the paddies all the time when I drive in the Sac. Valley. And in the early part of the 20th century, we used to grow wheat in the valleys, too.

[phantom power]

3. The disappearing Rocky snowpack will take care of those.

[pitohui]

4. yeah i've noticed everybody grows wine these days

of course california always has but now everybody grows wine, all over the world, everywhere you go. ever notice that? apparently the grapes like droughts

[hatrack]

5. They also like crappy, stony soil - kind of like olive trees

Though the olives have more than a little to do with the crappy, stony character of soils in Greece, Spain, etc.