Russia has very few friends among the former Soviet republics. Its spat with Belarus suggests it is fast losing one of the last. In spite of the mercurial moods of Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus’s authoritarian ruler, the country has long been one of Russia’s closest allies, enjoying its generous subsidies in the form of cheap oil and gas. In reality, the Kremlin has been getting increasingly irritated with the antics of the man it has kept in power.
Kremlin officials seem to have decided that the dubious political benefits of supporting Mr Lukashenko are now outweighed by his failure to show respect for the Russian president. In a Russian election year, they seem determined to inflict a serious blow to his prestige and demonstrate their own strength.
For the European Union, the confrontation between the two erstwhile allies presents a dilemma: the EU members have no love for Mr Lukashenko and have long sought to persuade Moscow to cut off his sub-sidies. But equally, they do not want to encourage the Kremlin to use its energy supplies for political purposes, and nor do they want the pipelines to dry up.
On paper, Moscow and Minsk were supposed to be working towards a political and economic union, including a single currency. In practice, the idea has lost its appeal to Mr Lukashenko, ever since he realised that the merger was more likely to be a takeover and his own role in the new union would be reduced to that of local governor.
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/5944e0a2-9f4e-11db-9e2e-0000779e2340.html