How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Peak Oil

[Strelnikov_]

“Now then, you know how we've always talked about the possibility of something going wrong with the petroleum supply, the petroleum supply from the Middle East, sudden loss of the Middle East supply. Well now, what happened is . . one of our Presidents, he had a sort of . . .well, he went a little funny in the head . . you know . . just a little . . funny. And, ah . . he went and did a silly thing . . Well, I'll tell you what he did. He ordered his planes . . to attack Iran . .

Remember those halcyon days of arguing over the timing of the peak, the duration of the plateau, EPR and scalability of alternatives, hydrogen v. electric, wind v. nuclear, the viability of relocalization, and the ever popular debate over depletion rates. Probably the most important issue discussed was whether the viable alternatives would have been implemented in time to mitigate the worst of the economic damage as we would have begun to slide down the backside of the supply curve.

Now, we are currently facing possible open war in the Persian Gulf region, a war which could eliminate 18.7 Mbbl/dy (2005), or 45%, of the worlds petroleum export market.

Overnight, for all practical purposes. No raising of CAFE standards. No tax breaks for hybrids or biodiesel. Just here today, gone tomorrow.

And do Americans think we will still be able to import that 12.4 Mbbl/dy of SUV go-juice with the Chinese, Indians, Japanese, South Koreans, Germans, French etc. all using those dollars they have accumulated to bid against us in what remains of the export market.

In other words, unlimited liquid-fuel powered personal transportation in the United States, just a memory.

On the plus side, we still produce a lot of oil (40% of our consumption) domestically. We won't starve. But with a 3 gal/month gasoline ration, I think SUV sales may take a hit.

Why am I so pessimistic, when the Persian Gulf region has survived a revolution and two major wars in the last 28 years without a catastrophic disruption? This time we are not talking nation-states locking horns. In the GOP’s ‘War On Terror’, a war to facilitate the acquisition of petroleum resources for their masters in ‘Big-Oil’, they have implemented a divide-and-conquer strategy of Sunni v. Shia. An attack on Iran, I am afraid, may spark passions that, as in Iraq, once unleashed, cannot be controlled.

What we may be facing now makes the mitigation of peak oil look like a fairly straightforward task.


I can only wonder if, during my walks next winter, I will be greeted with the smell of 2-cycle engine exhaust as Iowans use their snow blowers to clear 1/2" of newly fallen fluff.

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http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/oiltrade.html

All in Mbbl/dy

Top World Oil Net Exporters, 2005

Saudi Arabia 9.1
Russia 6.7
Norway 2.7
Iran 2.6
United Arab Emirates 2.4
Nigeria 2.3
Kuwait 2.3
Venezuela 2.2
Algeria 1.8
Mexico 1.7
Libya 1.5
Iraq 1.3
Angola 1.2
Kazakhstan 1.1
Qatar 1.0
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Above represents 39.9 Mbbl/dy of 42 Mbbl/dy world export market
18.7 Mbbl/dy of above in Persian Gulf region

[BeFree]

1. Well

Saudi Arabia will be pissed, eh? All that money they get everyday will suddenly disappear? And if we do start some shit with Iran, it won't be over anytime soon unless that drop the big one. But then, it would be all over, eh? ..... bushco must be busy weighing the options.