Mexico - the "Global Problematique" in action

[GliderGuider]

In the 1970's the Club of Rome identified a set of interacting, amplifying and interfering problems they dubbed the "Global Problematique". Those problems included things like resource depletion of all kinds, pollution, climate change, political and economic instability etc., with population growth as the root cause.

I've been refining a present-day example of the Problematique involving oil depletion, climate change, food scarcity and socioeconomic instability, I think it helps to bring the nature of the problems the world will face over the next few decades into stark relief. It goes like this:

• Mexico's biggest oil field is Cantarell. Its 2 million barrel per day output is responsible for 60% of Mexico's production, and all its oil exports to the United States.
  
• Mexico's oil exports account for 40% of Mexico's public funding.
  
• Cantarell's output is known to be crashing. Reliable estimates point to a 70% reduction in output by the end of 2008.
  
• When this happens Mexico's economy is likely to implode.
  
• The United States currently exports about 20% of its corn crop.
  
• Next year, 20% of the United States' corn crop is going to be used for ethanol.
  
• Mexico imports a substantial amount of corn from the United States.
  
• As Cantarell's output declines, oil exports to the US will drop in lockstep.
  
• As oil imports drop in the US, the pressure will mount to produce more ethanol as a substitute.
  
• As more corn is bought by the American ethanol industry, US corn exports - especially to Mexico - will slide.
  
• At the same time the probability is high that Global Warming will result in higher temperatures in Mexico - a country already at temperature risk.
  
• Rising temperatures will bring more drought conditions, and a drop in Mexico's own corn production.
  
• Now you have a country with a decimated economy and declining food. This is a recipe for massive migration.
  
• The migration moves north as it always has, but this time in massive numbers.
  
• As the economic refugees cross the border, what do they find?
  
• In January, 2006, KBR was given a $385M contract to build a string of very large detention camps in the United States...
  

Peak oil, global warming, food, biofuels and fascism - all rolled up into one neat but ugly little package. Coming to a border near you within 5 years.

[snappyturtle]

1. I just can't take any more news....really...

this is definitely not good news......we just moved to the hill country of Texas and are about 230 miles from the Mexico/Texas border. After talking with long time citizens in this area I would guess the mass migration has already begun. People are worried about it that's for sure. Oh what tangled webs we weave when first we practice to deceive!

[phantom power]

2. And let's not forget that America's ag-belt is also going to become less productive.

Really, the entire northern hemisphere is going to see reduced crop yields. It's already happening.

[jpak]

4. Not yet...

http://agecoext.tamu.edu/resources/publications/ag_news/2005/sep/09-21-05.php

The trend 1995-2005 is up as is the trend in corn production though the mid 20th century...

www.sage.wisc.edu/pubs/articles/F-L/Kucharik/Kuch2005EarthInt.pdf

I'm not saying that climate change WON'T affect US crop production - just that there is no evidence for it yet...

[phantom power]

5. My memory is like a seive, but I *know* the midwest drought caused crop loss this year...

didn't it? Maybe I can find the original posts.

[phantom power]

6. Well, I found one.

I could swear there were others, but there were an awful lot regarding Australia, China and Europe. Maybe I was mixing it all up in my head.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=115&topic_id=76006&mesg_id=76006

At any rate, we've both seen the north american drought maps from the last couple years. The writing is on the wall.

[jpak]

8. Check this out...

http://www.dailyfutures.com/grains/

[Dead_Parrot]

9. I think "a bit of both" is the answer

From your article: Credit Suisse analysts anticipate U.S. corn acreage rising to 83 million to 85 million acres, up from 2006 acreage of 79 million acres.

And from here: January 17, 2007 - In its annual report published Friday, USDA estimated the total 2006 corn crop at 10.5 billion bushels, down two percent from its previous estimate published in November. This also represents a five percent drop from last year's crop of 11.1 billion bushels.... The 2006 crop represents the second best U.S. yield of all time-149.1 bushels per acre (151.2 is the all-time record, set in 2004).

(sorry about using the cache - couldn't find it on the site)

So the harvest is still going up, but driven more by increased land than increased yield. Now, assuming CS are right about the acreage, there's scope for breaking the 12 billion bushel mark: But how much beyond that the US is likely to go is a rather interesting question.

Of course you could always stop shovelling it into cows to make shitty burgers. That'd help. :)

[jpak]

10. Yes, US per acre corn and soybean yields have probably plateaued

Sort of off subject, but the present phase of Indian Ocean Dipole (an ocean/atmosphere oscillation index) has exacerbated the drought in Oz...

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/

[jpak]

7. Overall US corn and soybean production in 2006 was not that different

from the record years of 2003-2005.

Some local/regional growing areas are always going to take a hit from adverse weather, but on a continental scale, not much has changed (take a look at the figures in that pdf).

US crop yields are up on a decadal scale, but there is variablity in there too (like global trends in temperature over the last 50 years - it's not a smooth curve).

That's what I was trying to say...

:hi:

[Dead_Parrot]

11. Or maybe not...

Sorry, I have to share this...

http://ncga.com/ethanol/pdfs/2006/HowMuchEthanolCan%20ComeFromCorn.v.2.pdf

Based on a 15-year trend line (1990-2005), average yields are projected to hit 173
bu./acre by 2015. However, if yield continues to increase at the rate of the last 10 years
(1995-2005), average yields could reach 180 bu./acre by 2015. To illustrate the impact of
incremental yield growth, consider that an increase of just two bushels per acre from one
year to the next results in an additional 150 million bushels of corn. That additional corn
could be used to produce 420 million gallons of ethanol.

I love that. And if you keep going, we'll have 500bu/acre by 2200. and 1000 bushels per acre by 2295! Woo-hoo!

Gotta love statistics. :evilgrin:

(edit - sorry, should be a reply to #10 :dunce:)

[damntexdem]

3. NAFTA has undercut Mexico's corn production.

It is about to do likewise to Mexico's bean production.

[hatrack]

12. It's also done a fair amount to undermine and/or destroy their corn landraces

Meaning that, with hundreds of thousands of small peasant farmers forced off the land by massive imports of subsidized American hybrid/biotech corn, the hundreds and hundreds of varieties of corn (and beans and peppers and squash) developed over millenia through conventional selective plant breeding are being lost.

Relatively small areas in Mexico where traditional agriculture was practiced until the mid-to-late 20th Century often contained multiple, even many unique varieties of staple vegetables. To use the example of corn, some were better for eating right off the stalk, others for tortilla flour, others still for animal feed or popcorn. More importantly from the genetic point of view, some were drought-hardy, others unusually tall, or grew quickly, or produced particularly large cobs and covered a wide variety of potentially very useful traits.

However, with the farmers off the land, with some of the landraces in seedbanks (where they're not doing what Nature intends - i.e. being subjected to the different kinds of stress and conditions involved in surviving and reproducing) with many others lost or nearly so, and with the American monocultural petro-ag model cemented in place as that system for which to strive, we've also managed to put ourselves in the position of permanently losing substantial amounts of the corn genetic base. This comes at a time when large ranges of useful traits and varied strains may well be critically needed to shore up "conventional" agriculture facing potentially huge climate impacts.