Some thoughts on Global Warming.

[kansasblue]

It seems there is a lot of time spent trying to convince people that global warming is real.

Well it is and that's not really any issue you need to argue with this government, your neighbors or here at DU.

The issue that needs to be worked is...... What's causing it?

The current admin and most right wingers now acknowledge there is global warming. But they feel it either not caused by man and is a natural thing that's happened before (before SUVs and factories) and will happen again (they say they are backed up by historic examples).

We really don't need to spend any time trying to convince people it real. What you need to do...and which isn't been done very well... is to educate (DU included) everyone about what the scientists are saying is the CAUSE of global warming.

I see lots of threads here about it being hot here, things melting over there, more fires, early blooming plants, animal suffering, etc. Well meaning people that think those postings are helping the fight against global warming. I say they ain't. Extra noise.

That's not what needs to be worked here on DU. We need to bring forward the best and brightest augments and studies about WHAT IS CAUSING global warming.

So what do you think?

[BushOut06]

1. The sun is getting hotter

At least, that's what the right-wingers want us to think. :sarcasm:

[soothsayer]

9. well, the whole solar system is heating up, so thta might be

part of it, actually. It may even be this increased solr radiation that causes big fat huge releases of CO2 from the oceans, etc. No doubt, tho, that we ain't helping....!

[Dead_Parrot]

12. Abdusamatov's claim about the oceans releasing CO2...

Is horseshit. The oceans are absorbing CO₂, gigatons of the stuff, to the point where they are now so loaded with carbonic acid that some molloscs are at risk, because thier shells are disolving faster than they can grow them.

There is also a big, fat question mark over how much effect, if any, solar variation has on the climate via normal incident radiation: whilst it's probably non-zero, it's certainly not the driving force behind a billion acres of melting tundra. I think the answer lie a little closer to home.

[antiimperialist]

2. The sun's contribution to GW is 4-30%. Humans responsible for the rest

...in the last few decades, according to scientists.

[BushOut06]

3. I would think the sun's contribution would be negligible

I don't think increasing solar temperatures would account for the amount of warming we've seen in recent years. This type of natural warming usually takes place over long periods of time.

No, the vast majority of blame lies directly with human activity, pumping greenhouse gases into the air.

[soothsayer]

10. we'll see what happens as we enter a period of extreme solar

activity in the next few years, peaking in 2011, when the earth will also be at the glactic center of the milkyway galazy. Should be an interesting time..! Solar Cylce 24 (the coming sunspot cycle) is expected to be a real whopper.

[phantom power]

14. Huh? Earth is nowhere near galactic center.

[kestrel91316]

15. Sorry. Dead wrong. The earth, and our entire solar system, are FIRMLY in place

at the EDGE of our galaxy.

I learned that little factoid, oh, in 4th grade.............

[Xithras]

18. Umm...sorry, but you're wrong too.

4th grade factoids aren't always correct either.

Our solar system is located about halfway out the galactic disk. We're not in the galactic center and we're not on the edge...we're right in between. We're in a 200 million year orbit around the center of the galaxy and are currently hurtling toward the Hercules constellation at about five hundred thousand miles an hour. We'll get there in a couple million years :)

What the OP MAY have been referring to is our orbital oscillation. As you're probably aware, the galaxy is flat like a pancake. We're partway out that pancake, circling the center, and are actually located slightly ABOVE the plane of the galaxy (if you looked at our galaxy, or our pancake, edge on, we'd be right at the top edge). We know today that our orbit oscillates though. Our sun doesn't just go around in circles, is also slowly plunges back and forth through the galactic disk as it orbits over a period of millions of years. We've already passed the peak of this oscillation and are currently headed back into the disk. These periodic plunges have been implicated in everything from ice ages to global die-offs, because the transit dramatically increases the odds of gravitational interactions displacing Oort objects, and even of running into interstellar dust clouds. Lest you think this is a distant possibility, here's another factoid you probably didn't get in the 4th grade. About 150,000 years ago our solar system plunged into an interstellar glass cloud called the Local Fluff. We've been crossing the cloud ever since, and won't get out of it for another 20,000 years or so. That cloud is heated to about 6000° C, and only the solar wind and it's relatively low density are keeping us from cooking. It's one of the reasons that astronomers are still monitoring the Voyager probes. There's still some question about how a spacecraft will react to that kind of high temperature, low density environment. Those won't be answered until Voyager 1 crosses the heliopause and actually enters the interstellar cloud (currently projected for 2015).

My guess is that the OP heard about this at some point and misunderstood.

[BushOut06]

16. If that's true, then we have a LOT more to worry about than global warming

Namely, the supermassive black hole that inhabits the center of the galaxy.

[Xithras]

17. Natural warming takes place over decades.

Similar to what we've seen.

Look, no reputable scientist would ever claim that the SUN, which is responsible for 100% of the heat on the Earth, isn't also responsible for at least some of the global warming we're experiencing. In fact, quite a bit of recent data (both on our planet and others) does indicate that solar output has been slightly increasing. To argue that increasing solar output has nothing to do with global warming is like arguing that rainfall has nothing to do with flooding.

The issue is that our rate of warming exceeds that which would be expected from normal solar variability. Why? Because increased greenhouse gas emissions are greatly exacerbating what would have otherwise been a period of moderate warming (assuming the natural solar increase stops...to date, it hasn't). Would our icecaps be melting, our glaciers receding, and our hurricanes be getting stronger without human pollution? Yes, they would. But not nearly as badly, or as quickly.

[Dead_Parrot]

4. Well, let's see...

CO₂ absorbs heat, and we're generating a million tons of it every 20 minutes.

Hmmm.

Nope, can't think of a thing. :shrug:

[Dogmudgeon]

6. Pfeudofcience! Pfeudofcience Moft Foul!

Carbon dioxide doesn't absorb heat.

It reflects cold!

--p!
Not religious, just a fanatic.

[depakid]

13. Not only that, but we're destroying carbon sinks

so the earth is less able to cycle what we do produce.

[greenman3610]

5. realclimate.org

http://www.realclimate.org
http://www.climate.org

these are good resources to start

also

http://www.grist.org/

[Name removed]

7. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Dead_Parrot]

8. Wow

Pass that doobie, man. That's some good shit you're smoking. :smoke:

[Odin2005]

11. Here's a chart from Wiki I posted elsewhere:

The warming in the first part of the century is partially due to a recovery from the Little Ice Age (the solar forcing going from 0 to 0.2) and partially from human activities. After 1960's it's been mostly due to human activities, the plateau in temps that occurred in the 50's, 60's and 70's was a result of a temporary decrease in solar forcing and because of volcanic activity.

[Dead_Parrot]

19. Incidentally...

I see lots of threads here about it being hot here, things melting over there, more fires, early blooming plants, animal suffering, etc. Well meaning people that think those postings are helping the fight against global warming. I say they ain't. Extra noise.

These well-meaning people (most of whom are called Hatrack, for some unfathomable reason) provide an invaluable service in reminding us that the consequences of climate change are very real, global and here now, not decades in the future.

Sorry if the extra noise keeps you awake.