Mexico is heading for a revolution.

[GliderGuider]

A week or so ago I wrote up a scenario that had Mexico's oil output crashing, the economy imploding, corn imports drying up and a massive flood of refugees north into the US. The scenario is here.

Things could get much worse than that, if the tone of this truthout article is to be believed.

The source of rumbling popular discontent is the increase in the price of the corn tortilla, Mexicans' basic food, which has skyrocketed since the beginning of the year. It had already increased close to 14 percent in 2006, and by 30 percent in three years. For several days, the number of demonstrations in the capital and in the principal cities of the country has been increasing. Wednesday, beating on pots and crying, "We want tortillas, not bread! Without corn, there is no country," the demonstrators marched on the Ministry of the Economy to demand the resignation of the new economy minister, deemed to be unable to resolve the problem.

snip

The takeoff in international prices is due notably to the increasing use of corn to produce ethanol, which serves to manufacture biodiesel, a substitute product for gasoline during a period of expensive gas. Last year, the United States withdrew 40 million tons of corn from the market to devote to this new fuel. In Mexico, the tortilla crisis also revives the debate on food sovereignty. For the Milenio's editorialist, Juan Gabriel Valencia: "The tortilla is nutritionally essential in the diet of the poorest." The church itself is divided over the consequences of the increase. Mexico's archbishop, Cardinal Norberto Rivera Carrera, deemed that the increase in the price of the tortilla "is no tragedy" for the country and should not degenerate into a "social war," but the Bishop of San Cristobal de las Casas (Chiapas), Felipe Arizmendi Esquivel, asserted Monday that there was, in fact, a risk of a new social and political movement "as dramatic as that of 1994" - which saw the Zapatista uprising.

Subcommandante Zero, it's time to buy a new balaclava. Your country is calling.

God damn NAFTA to hell.

[Warpy]

1. It's overdue

and since the US has been bogged down in two wars on the opposite side of the earth, it's safe to do it now.

Latin America is heading to the left now that they're free from fear of invasion by the US and overthrow of any leader to the left of Hitler.

I sincerely hope Mexico follows, the old colonial oligarchy gets smashed, and what should be a true Paradise on earth gets shared with all its citizens.

[stevietheman]

2. If it happens in Mexico, the idea won't be lost on U.S. citizens if...

matters degrade much worse here.

[GliderGuider]

3. Do you think so?

I don't see that much revolutionary zeal in the US from my vantage point up here. The conditions are just not right for it - too many people have too much to lose (or have been told they have and believe it, which amounts to the same thing). You won't beat each other up when times get tough, you'll go beat up someone else. Preferably people with brown skins, or Canadians...

[stevietheman]

7. I do believe the national (American) mood has changed dramatically...

over the past several months. People in the general public seem to be a lot more open to the idea of removing Bush from power.

[NNadir]

4. The last time I was in Mexico, which is now many years ago, I couldn't imagine

how things could get much worse for human beings.

Then I went to India.

[BeFree]

5. I found my shills...

Oops, wrong thread. lol

So, we trade the Mexican's basic food for ethanol to put in our cars so we can drive to burger doodle to get our basic food: the hamburger. We win!

[GliderGuider]

6. Here's a comment from another board on this very subject.

I'd outlined my thoughts on Cantarell and the combined effects of an oil production crash and the ethanol situation producing a flood of refugees. I got this reply:

The 100+ year-old push-pull affect of the US economy on Mexican migration is a very well documented historical phenomenon. This time circumstances are somewhat different. Many Mexican campesinos--subsistence farmers that own their own land or jointly in a collective called an ejido--were forced off their land due to NAFTA rules that allowed the dumping of highly subsidized, below market-priced US corn on the Mexican market; however, the land is still there, idle. I would expect a return to the land before a large influx into El Norte. You see, there's a communication grapevine that provides information about conditions both north and south, and conditions for the undocumented migrant are not good in El Norte and unlikely to improve for some time. Further, traditional campesinos use very few fossil fuel imputs; in a very real sense, the idea of permaculture comes from Mexico's terraced gardens and the complementary growing system of beans, squash and corn. Why risk death crossing the border or incarceration if you make it when it's much easier to return to the farm?

Pemex's bankruptcy and Cantarell's crashing presents a political crisis for Mexico's elite and threatens the stability of the small middle class, and the same can be said of El Norte. Their crisis presents a great opportunity for the long downtrodden majority to gain power a la Bolivia, Ecuador and Venezuela.

Personally, I find it rather ironic that Bush's ethanol policy will destabilize Mexico's illegitimate president after he did so much to have him installed in the first place. Considering the great lack of corporate media coverage of events in Mexico unless you know Spanish, it will be hard to see the precursors of the coming revolution beyond those that are already there and very active.

I still think a northward flood is unavoidable, but he has a point - this situation will be ideal for a further spread of the Bolivarian Revolution. Mexico may get a little too interesting over the next couple of years.