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In the House of Commons yesterday, Natural Resources Minister Gary Lunn rejected concerns that a breakneck development in the oil sands would swamp the Conservative government's climate change strategy. He suggested production there is unlikely to exceed 3.1 million barrels a day within the next 10 years, although that's still triple what companies now pump out of the high-cost, heavily polluting oil sands.
Still, his lowball estimate doesn't square with Prime Minister Stephen Harper's effort to tout the country's potential as an energy superpower. In New York this fall, the Prime Minister said oil sands production was expected to hit four million barrels a day by 2015. But on a recent trip to China, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty played a little Texas hold 'em with the oil sands estimates, seeing Mr. Harper's four-million-barrel forecast and raising it another 600,000.
Earlier this month, Mr. Flaherty travelled to China in an effort to lure Chinese investment to Canada, including the oil sands. Despite hints of interest two years ago, Chinese companies have so far made only minor investments. Mr. Flaherty told Chinese business people they are missing an enormous opportunity. "Between now and 2015, energy investment in Canada is projected to be about $400-billion," he boasted. "Production from Alberta's oil sands stands at about 2.5 million barrels a day now, and is on its way to 4.6 million barrels per day by 2015."
In fact, oil sands production now stands at about 1.1 million barrels a day, and the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers says its most optimistic forecast has it growing to 3.5 million by 2015.
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http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20070130.ROILSANDS30/TPStory/Business