For three years now, Hatrack has been posting the weekly summer ice extent reports from the National Ice Center at NOAA. I've also been visiting the site, off and on, for about the same time. It is an expansive web presence, a combined effort of civilian, academic, military, American, and international (relative to the USA) organizations ... but I still don't know how I managed to miss the following pages:
Naval Operations in an Ice Free Arctic Symposium (17-18 April
2001) (But "An initial meeting was held at the NIC on
7 July 2000 ..." in the
Final Report p. 7)
That was
six years ago. The Boy-King was put wise to the dramatic nature of global climate change shortly after his snot-and-chocolate-smeared hand sullied the Bible on which he took his oath of office. In that era, the "skeptics" were
bwa-ha-ing themselves blue in the face over Bell and Strieber's book while Bjørn Lomborg was holding court and chanting 'Occam's Razor', 'Falsifiability', 'Peer Review', and the other Words Of Power that have been used to shut down debate and inquiry. James Inhofe and the "Club for Growth" were saturating the airwaves with their tripe while the allegedly liberal Press was mocking "Algore" for being "wooden". During the campaign, His Nibs, soon to be President Bush II, was imploring us to allow industry a free and unchecked hand until there was "Strong Science". After all, Algore's approach smacked of ...
Socialifm Moft Foul!But the Navy, that bastion of Birkenstock-wearing, post-modernist, tofu-eating, French-speaking Liberalism, was ahead of the game.
I initially considered just posting the reports
en masse, since the reports are, by law, in the public domain. But there's a considerable amount of material covered, citing a broad range of literature (most of which is profitwalled), a large chunk of military-specific information -- and most people won't read it anyway. Not that most of us need much convincing at this point, though those of us of a scientific bent and/or with too much time on our hands may be inclined to read it.
The Arctic ice cap is decreasing in thickness and area of coverage, a phenomena
(sic) highlighted in recent news articles and a fact confirmed by an increasing body of data gathered by the National Ice Center (NIC)/Naval Ice Center (NAVICE) in Suitland, Maryland. Vessels and aircraft operating in the Arctic have reported diminished summer ice coverage and scientific models consistently suggest that seasonal sea lanes through the formerly ice-locked Arctic may appear as soon as 2015. It is postulated that summertime disappearance of the ice cap could be possible by 2050 if this trend continues. The implications for national security and by extension, the impact on naval operations, are significant.
(
Final Report, page 7)
Over the next 20 years, the volume of Arctic sea will further decrease approximately 40%, and the lateral extent of sea ice will be sharply reduced (at least 20%) in summer:
- Polar low pressure systems will become more common and boundary layer forced convection will increase mixed (ice-water) precipatation (sic). Cloudiness will increase, extending the summer cloudy regime with earlier onset and later decline. The likelihood of freezing mist and drizzle will increase, along with increased vessel and aircraft icing.
- Sonar operations in the Arctic will experience increased ambient noise levels and the surface duct will be diminished or lost. Ice keels will be shallower and less abundant and the area in which they can be expected to occur will be reduced. Active sonar detection of submarines will become more feasible
- Within five years, the Northern Sea Route (aka the Northeast Passage) will be open to non-ice-strengthened vessels for at least two months each summer
- The Russian Arctic is a treasure trove of natural resources. Changing climate will spur an increase in exploitation of energy, mineral and forest resources, especially by or for the benefit of resource-poor Asian nations.
- Within 5-10 years, the Northwest Passage will be open to non-ice-strengthened vessels for at least one month each summer
- Both Russia and Canada assert policies holding navigable straits in the NSR and Northwest Passage under their exclusive control. The United State differs in its interpretation of the status of these straits, with a potential for conflict
- Within 5-10 years, the Sea of Okhotsk and the Sea of Japan will remain ice-free throughout the year
Naval Operations in an Iceless Arctic (Keep in mind that these projections were made in late 2000 and early 2001, so it is possible to verify or falsify them now.)Model studies indicate that temperatures in the Arctic region will increase by mid-century with summer temperature (Jun-Aug) increasing by 1-2 deg. C, autumn (Sep-Nov) by 7-8 deg. C, winter (Dec-Feb) by 8-9 deg. C and spring (Mar-May) by about 5 deg. C. Variations between model predictions are of the order of 1-2 deg. C in summer and 5-6 deg. C in winter.
(
The Arctic and Climate Change, A Scenario for the US Navy, page 3)
Both Russia and Canada assert policies holding navigable straits in the NSR and the Northwest Passage under their exclusive control. The US differs in their interpretation of the status of these straits. As these routes become more available for international traffic, conflicts are likely to arise.
(
The Arctic and Climate Change, A Scenario for the US Navy, page 4)
Some models predict that the Arctic ice will significantly reduce in area and volume or possibly disappear during summer months as a result of increased greenhouse gases. ... Melting of large amounts of sea ice must also lead to dramatic increases in the fresh water flux out from the Arctic Ocean. The Great Salinity Anomaly of the late 1960s and 1970s is a good example of such an extreme event. An excess of fresh water exported from the Arctic into the Nordic and Labrador seas can alter or stop convection there, thus strongly affecting the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water and the global thermohaline circulation. A favorable scenario of Arctic climate change is one with a shorter-term (years to decades) natural variability superimposed on the long term warming trend due to greenhouse gas and other human-related emissions. Such a scenario is at least partly in agreement with time series of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which are often used as indices of Arctic climate variability.
(
The Arctic and Climate Change, A Scenario for the US Navy, page 5)
Observed Climate Change in the Arctic: Records for 1961-1990 over the central Arctic Ocean, collected as part of the Russian "North Pole" drifting station program, show statistically-significant increases in temperature of 0.89 deg. C and 0.43 deg. C per decade for May and June, respectively. Temperature increases during this period are also significant for summer as a whole. A different analysis for the period 1979-1997, based on a combination of temperature data from the North Pole program, drifting buoys and land stations, reveals statistically significant trends over most of the Arctic Ocean in spring, locally exceeding 2.5 deg. C per decade. This is consistent with indications based on satellite passive microwave records of an earlier onset of spring melt over the sea ice cover and is likely also related to reductions in sea ice extent of about 3% per decade since 1979 as assessed from satellite records.
(
The Arctic and Climate Change, A Scenario for the US Navy, page 7)
The 100-year historical record from ships and settlements going back to 1900 shows a decline in ice extent starting about 1950 and falling below pre-1950 minima after about 1975. This decline is better documented by satellites during the last 20 years. The rate of decline is about 3% per decade. ...
The record of submarine ice draft data shows that the ice draft at the end of summer has declined by about 40% over a time interval of about thirty-five years, or about 11% per decade. There are few data from the intervening years, so it is difficult to assess "normal" climatic variability, even over the 35 years of submarine data, much less over a longer period.
(Ice Draft, loosely speaking, is the ice thickness; illustrations in the documents clarify the point. --p!)(
The Arctic and Climate Change, A Scenario for the US Navy, page 9)
The broadest impacts to the terrestrial Arctic regions will result through consequent effects of changing permafrost structure and extent. As the climate differentially warms in summer and winter, the permafrost will become warmer, and the active layer (the layer of soil above the permafrost that annually experiences freeze and thaw) will become thicker. These simple structural changes will affect every aspect of the surface water and energy balances.
(
The Arctic and Climate Change, A Scenario for the US Navy, page 11)
I also deliberately avoided quoting some of the more "interesting" sections that had little to do with climatology
per se. A lot of the report is pure military wonkiness, and I'm thankful that somebody is thinking about these kinds of things, even if a shot is never fired. But the geopolitical sections make for chilling reading in their own right.
It may not be
Forty Signs of Rain, but it's its own kind of frightening.
--p!
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