Scoping the North for solar potential (50 MW of PV in Ontario, Canada)

[jpak]

http://www.nob.on.ca/industry/energy/03-07-solar.asp

A Toronto renewable energy developer won’t confirm if Thunder Bay is in the running as the site for one of Canada’s first, and North America’s largest, solar farm.

But an official with SkyPower Corporation acknowledges the company has been scoping out prospective sites in Northern Ontario with major development plans to generate 50 megawatts (MW) of solar energy for the provincial power grid.

Thunder Bay may well be one of five solar farm sites developed across Ontario. In an e-mailed response to Northern Ontario Business, Michelle Chislett, projects director for SkyPower’s new solar division, SunPower Parks Corp.-- wouldn’t directly comment on any plans to build a large solar photovoltaic farm on the outskirts of Thunder Bay in 2007 except to say “viable sites are being explored for Northern Ontario...”

SkyPower, a well-known Canadian wind energy developer, signed a joint venture deal last November with a major U.S. solar energy company, SunEdison LLC.

<more>

but...but...PV is a nonstarter in Ontario!!11

[GliderGuider]

1. From the article

The fixed price for solar energy in Ontario is 42-cents-per-kilowatt-hour.

The projected cost of SkyPower’s Ontario projects are in excess of $6-per-kilowatt hour.

As I said in my previous post, solar installations in Ontario right now are "demonstration of faith" projects. I think the numbers here bear out that assessment.

[jpak]

2. Bad reporting - that should be $6 per installed kW (not kWh) - big difference

The current average price of PV electricity is ~21 cents per kWh - the 42 cents per kWh ON tariff makes this project possible...

http://www.solarbuzz.com/

[GliderGuider]

3. That's $6 per watt, right? $6000 CAD per kW?

Compared to wind's current installed cost of around $2000 CAD per kW? At about $0.08/kWh? For the same $0.42/kWh return?

This is a demonstration project, pure and simple.

[jpak]

4. 50 MW is hardly a "demonstration project"

dream on

[phantom power]

5. Of course it is.

It will produce 2% of the energy that a typical 500MW fossil-fuel plant produces, at about four times the cost per kW-hr.

[jpak]

6. And this is the first and last PV project to be built in ON????

Don't count on it.

Germany's PV feed-in tariffs (similar to ON's) resulted in the installation thousands of MW of new PV capacity - 837 MW last year alone.

This is the tip of the iceberg...

[phantom power]

7. As usual, you are speculating about the future and I am remarking on the present.

[jpak]

8. Germany's experience is not "speculation"

it's real

Statements that "it won't happen" are speculation...

:evilgrin:

[Dead_Parrot]

9. I hate to remind you

But Germany's experience involves deciding to build lots of new coal plants. If that's your idea of a renewable future, we really are all going to die.

[jpak]

11. Gee - renewable energy = coal??? Surely you jest

Germany is upping its goal for renewable energy considerably - and they make do on their efforts.

Those coal plants have not been built - yet some seem to yearn for them to be built - just to prove a point.

And what is China's experience with nuclear power and coal???

They are are building a *few* nukes and *dozens* of new coal-fired plants.

Nukes = coal???

yup - if you use that logic...

[Dead_Parrot]

15. So so are saying they won't be built?

Statements that "it won't happen" are speculation...

Hmmm.

[phantom power]

10. Even so...

My speculation is based on 30 years of reading predictions that solar is going to undercut fossil fuels (and nuclear) in "5-10 years," and seeing reality stubbornly prove those predictions wrong every time.

Now, on top of that observation, we all see every day here in E/E that while solar's promise remains in the future, the ugly consequences of climate change and peak oil are happening right now, and picking up speed at a rate that makes my stomache upset every morning.

I don't point these things out because I want to piss on other people's optimism. I do it because I believe we can't wait for solar any longer. The world has trillion-dollar decisions to make about how it spends it's waning resources, and solar isn't the best choice yet. If we have a trillion dollars to spend, and solar gets us X amount of energy for that $Trillion, and nuclear gets us 4X for the same $Trillion (and 24/7 base-load), I think we need to pursue that 4X.

[jpak]

12. Wait until last year's PV production numbers come out

They will show quite conclusively that new (global) additions of PV and wind capacity greatly outpaced - in nameplate capacity and operating capacity - net new nuclear capacity.

and for the last 3 years too.

People can complain about it, but they can't ignore it....

[NickB79]

21. So PV's up to what now, 0.5% of world energy demand?

And it's only taken 50 yrs to do so....

[kestrel91316]

13. So what exactly do you propose we do????

Let me guess - NUCLEAR POWER?

[phantom power]

14. Yes, exactly. Nuclear power. Lots and lots of it.

They run best as base-load. But we can build surplus. Off-peak, the surplus energy can be used for important tasks like synthesizing liquid or gaseous fuels. Or scrubbing CO2 from the atmosphere. Preferably both. Scrub the CO2, fix some of it, and use the rest for synthetic fuels. A carbon-neutral economy.

[Dead_Parrot]

16. Whereas you propose new houses with PV

And the 6 billion or so people who can't afford them can just fuck off, am I right?

[jpak]

17. And all those po' folks can afford multi-billion dollar nukes (and fuel cycles)???

I don't think so....

[Dead_Parrot]

18. Apparently they can...

Perhaps you missed India opening a new nuclear plant at $1/W. Perhaps you didn't know that that the Indian government subsidises power in the poor rural areas. Perhaps you think everyone in India drives a Prius. Your knowledge of poverty has been consistently piss-poor, and your constant use of the phrase "po' folks" to describe the majority of human beings shows you don't actually give a fuck.

[jpak]

19. How about Haiti or Ethiopia or Laos or Nicaragua and other small developing countries???

Can they afford nukes???

Nope

India is a large populous industrialized country, but there are millions of Indians that are not served by the national grid...the government is, however, developing solar lighting and small appliance PV systems for these remote/rural villages...

[GliderGuider]

20. In the right context, solar is an excellent solution.

For generating small amounts of power in places without any large scale infrastructure but with lots of sunshine, PV does just fine. It's are a very interesting lifeboat technology, even for northern climates. But given that PV currently generates only 0.01% of the world's primary energy and is still so expensive, trying to push it into niches like Northern Ontario, in a rich modern industrial country with poor insolation and a fully functioning grid (for now, anyway), just because you can seems like a foolish waste of money.

Again, for a lifeboat situation or if you want to make an off-grid statement, even in Canada you can make PV work. But trying to cast it as a sensible part of the generation mix for an industrial country like Canada at this point in time makes no sense whatsoever, IMO.

[Dead_Parrot]

22. Perhaps you feel they can afford PV?

Joule for Joule, PV is 10 times more expensive than nuclear power: You really don't need to be an expert in advanced calculus to work that out. Perhaps you'd like to pay for everyone in Haiti to have a 1KW PV system installed. Perhaps you could team up with Lovins and the morons over at Greenpeace, it shouldn't cost more than $75 billion.

Ethiopia has recently stopped producing power by renewables. Why is that?

Yes, the Indian governtment is dropping PV out to very rural areas. They are also expanding their grid to cover as many people as possible. Why? Because dropping PV on everyone is too fucking expensive. They have a worthwhile aim of getting power to everyone, by one way or another, in the next 5 years: Unlike you, they seem to think that people have a right to a decent quality of life, even if they can't afford it.

[XemaSab]

23. Solar in northern Ontario could supply a LOT of power

For several months in the summer the sun will rise before 5 and set after 9:30.