BRITAIN will run a deficit on its oil trade for the second year in a row in 2007, dealing a blow to Chancellor Gordon Brown’s forecast of a return to surplus. The development will fuel fresh fears that Brown’s tax hikes on the industry mean that it is now in terminal decline.
Figures from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the world’s energy watchdog, show UK oil production will fall a significant 130,000 barrels per day (bpd) short of expected demand.
The new IEA figures, obtained by The Business, show UK production of 1.70m bpd for 2007, against total demand of 1.83m bpd. The IEA has calculated that the extra 120,000 bpd produced from the UK’s new Buzzard field will effectively be wiped out because of a net decline of 117,000 bpd from other fields.
Just weeks ago Alistair Darling, the trade secretary, announced that the start of production from Buzzard would reverse the decline of recent years. “As one of the largest North Sea discoveries in the last decade, the Buzzard field will significantly boost overall UK oil production,” he said. “The UK should return to being a net oil exporter over the next couple of years.” The government has a track record of being over-optimistic on oil supplies. Last year, it was caught by surprise when the UK became a net oil importer four years earlier than it expected, ending more than a decade of self-sufficiency.
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