Hard times for hybrids

[GliderGuider]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/bw/20070309/bs_bw/0712b4026062">Why Hybrids Are Such A Hard Sell

Given all the buzz about hybrids, not to mention the greening of the citizenry, you'd think they would be easy to sell. They're not. After growing nicely through much of 2006, hybrid sales began to slow early this year. The gasoline-electric vehicles now make up 1.8% of all vehicle sales, says Edmunds.com, down from a peak of 2.1% in October.

One major reason is that hybrids typically cost $3,000-plus more than conventional cars.

...Some models have suffered badly. Honda Motor Co. sold 70% fewer hybrid Accords in 2006; Toyota has sold 24% fewer Lexus RX 400h sport-utility vehicles so far this year. The fuel savings are simply too puny to offset the hybrid premium. With gas at $2.50 a gallon, it would take 10 years to recoup the extra $3,000 cost of the Accord hybrid.

Look closely and you can see the automakers hedging their bets. Toyota is pushing into diesel. Ditto for Honda, which may not build a new hybrid Accord. Nissan is waiting to see how its hybrid Altima does before putting the technology into other vehicles. Honda's planning chief for North America, Dan Bonawitz, likely speaks for most of his counterparts when he says: "There won't be a giant surge in hybrid sales unless there's an oil crisis."

Oh well, at least Mr. Bonawitz will get his wish eventually.

[MADem]

1. We need a no-frills ten grand hybrid, that's what we need. NT

[papau]

2. Toyota promised a plug-in hybrid by 2010 - I wonder if big oil has changed their minds? n/t

n/t

[hardcore]

3. Hybrids have another problem

They have a short life cycle (about 100K miles) and consume HUGE amounts of energy to produce and then later recycle. The energy savings/ emissions are saved only during it's operating life but lost at each end. Cradle to grave, the Hummer consumes less energy and polutes less. Reason being that the components that make the hybrids light weight are far more complex than sheet metal and require a lot of energy to make. Think of producing all of the ingredients of a carbon fiber molded part. Same goes for the batteries.

The ultimate end game is solar power which is the energy source that powers the entire solar system. We can collect and use it but we can't efficiently store it yet. Battery technology is the place to funnel R&D money.

[wtmusic]

5. Do you have ANY basis for this

Sounds like a whole load of Petroleum Institute crap to me.

Links, please.

[IDemo]

11. no doubt referencing this ->

the report,
CNW Marketing Research - CNW's 'Dust to Dust' Automotive Energy Report

and a commentary:
Dust in the Wind: Hybrids' Total Energy Cost

[wtmusic]

15. More Detroit-funded nonsense, and here's why:

CNW Marketing Research Description: Services: Specializes in research for corporate clients and provides purchase path information on consumer auto buying and leasing habits among other services.

http://goliath.ecnext.com/coms2/product-compint-0000690865-page.html)

"This is a general-consumer report, not a technical document per se. It includes breakdowns of each vehicle’s total energy requirements from Dust to Dust but does not include issues of gigajuelles, kW hours or other unfriendly (to consumers) terms. Perhaps, in time, we will release our data in such technical terms."

"The information contained is as accurate as we can make it currently although we believe it has an error margin somewhere between 11 and 14 percent"

The Prius is given an estimated life cycle of 109K miles -- with no data to back it up whatsoever.

http://cnwmr.com/nss-folder/automotiveenergy/

I could go on. The methodology is laughable, and would fold like a house of cards under any kind of peer review.

onedit: "gigajuelles"-- gotta love it. Idiots can't even spellcheck. :rofl:

[IDemo]

16. "Specializes in research for corporate clients"

I was going to include that line, but I figured it was self-evident.

[kestrel91316]

20. The Prius has been around for how many years now? And I read someplace

as recently as last fall that NONE - not one - have had to replace the battery pack yet.

[kestrel91316]

19. Oh, whoopee! Let's all go buy ourselves Hummers!!!

[hardcore]

23. Help yourself only if you need it

[wtmusic]

25. Who the hell needs a Hummer

except insecure, unendowed men? :shrug:

[DemInBuckhead]

24. That's funny...there are a bunch of Priuses for sale with...

...way more than 100K miles. Where does that 100,000 mile life cycle come from? Out of somebody's arse?

http://www.cars.com/go/search/search_results.jsp?tracktype=usedcc&searchType=21&sort=true&pageNumber=0&numResultsPerPage=50&largeNumResultsPerPage=0&sortorder=descending&sortfield=MILES%2CMILES+ascending%2CPRICE+descending&certifiedOnly=false&criteria=K-%7CE-%7CM-_47_%7CD-_2916_%7CN-N%7CR-10000%7CI-1%7CP-MILES+ascending%2CPRICE+descending%7CQ-ascending%7CZ-30305&sortId=&aff=national

[jpak]

26. Megadittos!

Hybrids sssssssuuuuuuucccckkkk!!!!1111 Hummers rule!!11

:rofl:

[Pierzin]

4. We Are Already In An Oil Crisis. Ever Heard of Peak Oil????

All of the industrialized countries of the world have already been tapped out of their peak production. The USA now imports 75% of the oil it uses. And China, with one billion people, is just now starting to want more oil for its people. You think gas costs a lot now? Just wait!
America needs to do a hell of lot more to avert the coming disaster that is linked to Global Warming. The whole landscape and way of life needs to change, whether we as Americans like it or not. We need electric cars, electric busses, electric trucks, cable cars, trolleys, anything to cut back on the use of oil.

[GliderGuider]

6. We all know that, but the average American consumer doesn't

All they know is that whenever they drive up to the pumps there is gas waiting for them, and the price is still acceptable. Even if the price jumps for a while it's seen as being due to either hurricanes or greedy oil companies. Very little information about Peak oil is getting past the noise of American Idol.

[Warren Stupidity]

7. Prius is selling fine.

What isn't selling are SUV hybrids. Gosh it turns out that americans are stupid, but not quite that stupid.

Manufacturers who make a quality high mileage reasonably sized car, like the prius, will sell lots of them.

[msongs]

8. when gas prices went down, hybrid sales went DOWN. doesnt take a genius to figure that out nt

[wtmusic]

9. Such a hard sell, that 30 new models will be introduced in the next 2 years

Sales have slowed all of .3%, which makes Detroit-based David Welch sound more like a GM shill than a reporter.

[GliderGuider]

10. Actually, sales of hybrids have slowed by 14.3%, not 0.3%

(0.3/2.1*100) = 14.3

It may be true that the majority of the slowdown has happened in the SUV lines and Honda's offerings. When people think "hybrid" they still think "Prius". We will see a big surge in hybrid sales over the next two years when Saudi Arabia finally admits their oil prouction is in decline and oil and gas prices start to jump as a result.

[Pierzin]

12. Do they make the basic econo car anymore, like Fords Model T?

Seriously,
Practically all the cars on the road are SUVs. Big Oil and the car makers have stepped back in time as far as progress goes, you would think it was the 50s and gas was 50cents a gallon and plentiful. Where are the tiny Toyotas, Subarus, and other Japanese cars that caused the near downfall of Detroit during the 70s?
You know what I am talking about. Those little 4-cylinder cars without power steering or automatic transmissions. They might have had radios, but it seems the basic model is way too much any more.
Maybe Ford s T is a bad example as it's ages ago, but you know what I'm talking about. The basic car. Unloaded, stripped down to the seat and safety standards. Todays cars are outrageous in their complexity.
The Toyotas and Subarus of the 70s and early 80s were great cars, why aren't there more of those? Shoot, I had a 92 Nissan for 11 years. Nearly all the standard cars of today are at least 1.5 times bigger than my Nissan was.

[IDemo]

13. They need to build more along these lines:

Geo Metro -- 3 cylinders, 1 liter, 50+ mpg, no hybrid drivetrain:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geo_Metro

[appal_jack]

27. i've had my eye on a Toyota Scion xA for a while

1.5 liter engine.

4-doors for passengers, plus a hatch.

good lookin' too

and it's a Toyota

costs ~ $12k from what I hear (rather above my savings at present, alas)

-app

[GliderGuider]

14. Yes, but they're not for sale in North America

Go to Europe an you instantly understand why their average fleet fuel economy is 50% better than North America.

From http://www.wisegeek.com/which-are-the-most-fuel-efficient-cars.htm

"The most fuel-efficient cars in Europe all have fuel efficiency over 64 miles to the gallon, which translates to 27 kilometers per liter. The car which tops the list is the Citroen C1, followed by the Toyota Aygo, Renault Clio, Citroen C2, Fiat New Panda, Toyota Prius gasoline hybrid, Citroen C3, Vauxhall Corsa, Peugeot 206, and another model of the Vauxhall Corsa. Many of these cars are available in other parts of the world including Africa and Asia, where a high premium is placed on gas efficiency as well."

[Pierzin]

21. thanks Gliderguider! nice link!

America is so screwed!

[wtmusic]

17. Not true

Only meaningful when compared to sales of all vehicles. Sales have slowed by .3%.

Compared to themselves, we don't know if they've slowed at all--they could be up 50%.

[kestrel91316]

18. Gas is up over $3.00 again. The hybrids will sell themselves.

[SCDem]

22. All hybrids are not the same

And by the looks of that article it sounds like the less fuel efficient hybrids are the ones having trouble selling. The Prius and the Honda Civic Hybrid are the most fuel efficient four seater cars out there and they are doing pretty good. None of the Fords or SUVs had as efficient a hybrid.

I think the message is, if you are going to make a hybrid make it fuel efficient for goodness sake.

[hatrack]

31. I was thinking the same thing . . .

It's interesting that they highlighted the Honda Accord and Lexus hybrids as examples of how hybrids aren't selling - the two models among all available which aren't designed as gas-sippers per se and are among the most expensive models available.

The story on the hybrid Accord (at least according to articles I've read from Consumer Reports to NYT to NPR to what have you) is that it was deliberately designed as aWEonf performance sedan with hybrid drive train as a way to improve acceleration, with fuel economy as a distant second priority. Same for the Lexus, which starts at about $45,000 as best I can recall.

Wonder why . . .

[rustydad]

28. The truth

Hybreds are only efficient around town where the stop and go energy is captured by the battery. On the highway they run on ICE which is no more efficient than a typical non hybred of the same size. But the hybred is heavy due to the batteries aand lots of extra components.

My suggetion is for around town get a bike or a moped. For the family and longer highway trips wait for the high millage diesels from EURO and Japan etc. to show up in a year or so.

But plan on this. Gasolene will be well over $10 in the US in a few years IF we don't expand the war in the ME. Bob

[IDemo]

29. you're kidding, right?

"Gasolene will be well over $10 in the US in a few years IF we don't expand the war in the ME"

Please don't include me in the 'we' intent on pursuing perpetual war for oil. By the time Iran has degraded to the level of mission accomplished 'we' have enjoyed in Iraq (which it will), the global economic fallout will have rendered affordable gas and the culture of personal transportation to the dustbin.

[dzog]

30. Seriously?

I can't tell if you really believe that bit about war and gas prices, if it was a typo, or if it was intended as sarcasm. Explain?

---

[rustydad]

32. Bad sentence

I should have finished the sentence with "if we do widen the ME wars gas is likely to go much higher than $10." Of course if the war widens to a full nuclear exchange with Russia and China there will be the *demand destruction* scenario that may see no demand at all. Bob

[Javaman]

33. The price of gas is back up, they will start selling better now. nt

[Ready4Change]

34. Report is on 2 poorly niched hybrids

Using Accords and Lexus's as examples of the failed viability of hybrids is like using the Edsel as an example of the viability of cars in the '50's.

Accord buyers are looking for a wide mix of qualities, with fuel efficiency being just one. Lexus owners, I suspect, couldn't care less about fuel efficiency.

At the same time, hybric Civics are selling well and there are still waiting lists for Prius's.