Heinberg: "It is reasonable to assume that the peak is here or very close"

[IDemo]

Comments to the National Petreoleum Council
by Richard Heinberg

A couple of snips:

People in the industry are attempting an impossible task—to continuously increase the supply of a non-renewable resource. That they should eventually fail to do this is no reflection on their technical competence or the degree of their effort. Meanwhile, society desperately needs realistic assessments of this vital resource rather than macho assurances.

Moreover, there is typically insufficient appreciation of the powerful influence of giant oilfields on the depletion curves of large regions. Giant oilfields tend to be found early in the exploration history of a region; and, when they go into decline, the entire region tends to peak, since smaller fields, even when found in great numbers, usually cannot make up for the decline of the giants—at least, not for long.

Conclusion: It is reasonable to assume that the peak is here or very close

Meanwhile, we observe that world production of crude + condensate has been static or declining since May 2005, when it achieved just over 74,000,000 barrels/day. This has happened in the context of very high prices—which should, under ordinary circumstances, have been incentive to expand production. This suggests that regular conventional oil has already peaked.

The peak for all liquids cannot be far behind.

Consequently, I see no plausible scenario in which a liquid fuels crisis arising within about 5 years can be averted on the supply side. This is too little time in which to compensate for declines by producing large quantities of liquids-from-coal or biofuels, if that is even possible.

the entire article: http://www.energybulletin.net/27103.html

[Skink]

1. The peak is that the Multinational oil companies now only control about a third of it.

The rest is state controlled in Russia, Venezuela, Mexico, Iran and Central Asia.

[AndyA]

2. By George, I think you've got it!

What an insightful and thoughtful viewpoint.

Thanks for sharing - I've been thinking the same thing for a long time now. Funny how things got so bad so quickly once Bush's New Energy Policy was enacted, eh?

Gas was $1.46/gallon when Bush took office. It's been an uphill climb ever since. Despite the increased costs to everyone (supposedly), the major oil companies have been earning record profits. It couldn't have been planned any better.

Makes you wonder...

And why are we not impeaching Bush/Cheney? :eyes:

[IDemo]

3. A primer for those unfamiliar with what 'the peak' refers to:

http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php