OPEC's campaign to boost oil prices by constraining supply has worked. As oil ministers meet this week, signs are mounting that the group will soon have to begin pumping more crude. Ministers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are scheduled to meet Thursday in Vienna to review oil-output levels. The cartel cut production at each of its last two meetings to reduce bloated inventories.
OPEC's ministers have made clear in public statements that they won't consider tightening supply further in Vienna this week, unless prices suddenly show signs of collapsing. The omens, industry officials said, suggest OPEC will need to start increasing output in a few months to avoid choking the world economy.
OPEC members "have already reached their goal of wiping out a large part of excess inventories and stabilizing prices," said Vera de Ladoucette, director of Middle East Research at Cambridge Energy Research Associates in Paris.
A senior OPEC official said ministers will review the latest demand, supply and inventory data -- including a monthly oil market report due to be published today by the Paris-based International Energy Agency, the industrialized world's energy watchdog. "It looks like there will be no change" in output policy at this week's meeting, this official said. The official cautioned against ruling out a surprise decision, if fresh data suggest a need to cut.
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