University Of E. Anglia Study - Oaks, Bluebells, Apples & Spring Gone By 2050 As UK Seasons Merge

[hatrack]

British gardeners could be left tending pomegranates and figs instead of apples and runner beans if climate change continues at the current rate, according to an academic model of likely conditions by 2050. Traditional seasons will merge into a constant, largely warm climate by the middle of the century, says the study from the University of East Anglia, which also foresees year-round weeds, giant wasps and an end to the bluebell.

"The future looks extremely challenging if change continues at the present rate," said David Viner of the climatic research unit at East Anglia, which carried out the study for the satellite and cable TV channel UKTV Gardens. "If nothing is done to reduce the effects of global warming, we could be seeing the extinction of staple flowers and trees of the traditional British garden, including the bluebell and the oak."

Even the national symbol, the rose, is at risk in the event of temperature surges. The study projected figures from the central England temperature record, which dates back to 1659, into the next half century. It predicts a 4% rise in average annual temperatures by 2050, rising to 6% by the end of the century, with unpredictable highs of more than 40C (104F) likely within 40 years. The climate would sustain more aggressive wasp species and year-round mildew and weeds, currently killed off by sustained cold and frost.

Dr Viner said the "grim reading" in the report chimed with current political efforts to underline the dangers of global warming. "Since the garden is the one location where the majority of Britons will feel the full force of climate change, this highlights the need for everyone to be aware of how they can help adapt their day to day lifestyles now to help reduce the devastating effects of global warming."

EDIT

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,,2033265,00.html

[hedgehog]

1. There seem to be two schools of thought here.

One group looks at recent temperatures in England and Europe and predicts more warming. The second group looks at all the ice melt diluting the ocean and predicts the Gulf Stream will shut down and England will freeze. I tend to suspect the first group is closer to the truth. Even without the Gulf Stream, how can England freeze if Northern Canada and Siberia warm up and the ice cap melts each summer?

What no one is talking about is this: what happen to the Gulf of Mexico when the Gulf Stream no longer carries away so much heat?

[kestrel91316]

3. More Katrinas?? Just a theory of mine, of course.....

[phantom power]

5. I also think that's quite likely.

[phantom power]

4. I had some predictions about that...

I'll start by noting that presently, the north-atlantic current moves heat energy toward the north-pole at the rate of about a petawatt.

So, if the current ever shuts down, there is going to be additional heat energy accumulating near the equator (As you say, from the gulf on south) at the rate of a petawatt.

What's going to happen to that energy? Firstly, the equatorial waters will heat up. Some of that heat surplus will then be radiated out to space. The rest of it is going to "try" (thermodynamically speaking) to move itself to the poles. If it can't get their by water, it's going to get there by air.

So we can expect all the complicated atmospheric systems that presently move heat from the equator to the poles to get turned up to 11. I presume that will include some more potent storm systems, but maybe also souped up trade-winds, convective cells, etc.

[kestrel91316]

2. Hey, if they are gonna have giant wasps, why not at least send them

a really cool one that should thrive in their new, warmer climate: the tarantula hawk of SoCal.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tarantula_hawk

Of course, we'd have to send tarantulas, too:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tarantula

Why not? We've totally fucked up the world's ecosystems. How could we do any more damage than we've already done?

[hedgehog]

6. Please, don't issue any challenges - someone's bound to take

notice and try to top the rcord!