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The Cantarell oil field is collapsing. Petroleos de Mexico, which depends on Cantarell for nearly half of its income, is near bankruptcy.
Speculation in corn for the production ethanol has caused the price of many Mexican staples, like tortillas, cornmeal, and feed for farm animals, to increase dramatically. Gasoline in most of the USA is required to contain as much as 15% ethanol, replacing MTBE as an oxygenation additive; there is more money to be made selling to fuel producers than to campesinos, so Mexico loses. Rioting over food prices and shortages, in small groups but widespread, has already been occurring.
The major political parties are still corrupt to a degree that astonishes even the cynics. Revolutionary politics has shown a resurgence, and some of those revolutionaries are not pleasant people and do not revere Ghandi, King, or the Dalai Lama. There is, of course, significant drug crime involved in major, minor, and revolutionary parties alike, funded largely by the USA's drug market.
Speaking of the USA, its immigration policies are becoming more punitive, increasing pressure on the poor of Mexico. American (as in U-S-American) financial interest in Mexico is almost entirely exploitative, with very little going into long-term capital development and improvement, let alone "human resources".
Most people in the USA have some idea that the Saudi royal family is corrupt and their vassals are close to rebellion, but are mainly uninformed that Mexico is so close to a breakdown. Almost all the (North American) news dealing with Mexico is about illegal immigration, stoking anger and resentment against the most desperate of their country.
As Turkey is to Kurdistani Iraq, the USA could soon be to Mexico, living in fear and dread of its oppressed neighbors, eager to strengthen that oppression, and paranoid of even the slightest spill-over.
Mexico is likely to be the first casualty of the future. It is unlikely to be the last.
--p!
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