NOAA - Mauna Loa Observatory - CO2 Growth Exponential With Doubling Time Of 32 Years - Star-Bulletin

[hatrack]

EDIT

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's 11,140-foot observatory on Mauna Loa has the longest continuous measurements of atmospheric CO2 in the world.

During 800,000 years of history recorded in ice cores, including big ice ages every 100,000 years, carbon dioxide cycled from 180 to 280 parts per million molecules of air, Barnes said. That changed around 2005, when atmospheric carbon dioxide hit 380 parts per million, he said.

"The de-seasonalized, postindustrial trend in added carbon dioxide has been increasing exponentially, with a doubling time of about 32 years," according to a NOAA report on global CO2 measurements. The rising CO2 curve was slowed slightly by a strong growing season in Canada in 1995, but that was short term, Barnes said.

Other greenhouse gases measured are methane and nitrous oxide and ozone-depleting gases such as chlorofluorocarbon and CFC-12. Methane levels have stayed about the same, and chlorofluorocarbon gases have been declining in recent years, according to observatory records.

EDIT

http://starbulletin.com/2007/03/29/news/story08.html

[opihimoimoi]

1. The fact some peeps reject scientific findings is appalling

The Republicans/JWs/Fundies/etc etc are KILLING us with their collective Ignorance

[depakid]

12. It's become a cult like obsession with some people

I deal with a few like that on another board. They'll start these anti-Gore anti-global warming threads in the "off topic" area- and repeat the same things over and over, no matter how many times I and others show them peer reviewed material that refutes them.

The strange thing is, at least one of them is an otherwise reasonable man who I've met in person.

Chalk it up power of propaganda, I guess.

[opihimoimoi]

13. Frustrating and in my case...depressing.....these peeps know not how to solve...only to disparage

denigrate....astounding ingorance level....

[GliderGuider]

2. So, 760 ppm by 2040?

Yet another "faster than expected".

You know, it's actually kind of cool to be living right now with the awareness we have. It's like getting a phone call that there will be a train wreck nearby just in time to run out and set up your camera.

[kestrel91316]

3. Oy vey. But an apt comparison.

[hatrack]

4. Pretty speedy, huh?

As you say, interesting times.

It's kind of like living inside the Zapruder Film - it's horrible, it's inevitable, you know full well what's coming and you can't turn off the projector.

[Dead_Parrot]

11. Except that we're on the train, of course. nt

[Viking12]

16. Doubling generally refers to 2 X pre-Industril levels, or 550 ppm.

[mahina]

5. Defend Science Forum this Friday at University of Hawaii Manoa

fyi any Hawaii DU'ers interested in building support for science, this was in my inbox.




When we think about impeachable crimes of the Bush administration, most of us think about the war, and few of us think of Bush's attacks on science and critical thinking. Yet the Bush Administration is attacking science by denying scientific truths such as evolution, disrupting scientific investigations into wide-ranging issues such as health and the environment, undermining science education, and calling into question the process of scientific thinking.

The Defend Science forum this Friday is among the first of its kind in the U.S. I was able to attend the first such forum in Berkeley in 2006, and thought it very exciting. Not only were scientists stepping into the "political" realm, but they were attempting to communicate the seriousness of the attacks to a broad audience. And they were doing a good job of it! Steve Palumbi was one of the speakers at the Berkeley forum, and will be speaking in the Defend Science forum on Friday. I hope you'll make a big effort to be there. Here's the info:

Defend Science Forum
Friday, March 30, 7 pm
UH-Manoa Art Auditorium
(parking is free since it's Spring break)

Guest speakers:
Frederic Mercier
Researcher, John A. Burns School of Medicine
Expert on neuronal stem cells
“Controversies and Promises of Stem Cell Research”

and
Steve Palumbi
Professor of Biological Sciences, Stanford University
author of “The Evolution Explosion”
“Why Evolution Matters”

Moderated by
Michael G. Hadfield
Professor of Zoology, University of Hawai`i
Defend Science Advisory Board*

The Defend Science Initiative includes scientists in various fields and from a diversity of perspectives, who are extremely concerned about the current attack on science, including on its very foundation in scientific method and thinking. Its goal is to mobilize scientists, issue a broad public call to Defend Science, and to bring community-wide attention to the real issues and the real stakes. Read or sign the Call and find out how to support this initiative at www.defendscience.org

Free admission - Open to Everyone (no science background needed)
Organized by The Defend Science Initiative

[phantom power]

6. Wow, I thought it was "just" quadratic.

[Dead_Parrot]

7. Oh, Fuck. nt

[phantom power]

8. For extra giggles, let's combine that doubling-time with this bit:

This study confirms that in the Earth's past 420 million years, each doubling of atmospheric CO2 translates to an average global temperature increase of about 3° Celsius, or 5° Fahrenheit.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/03/070328155540.htm

[GliderGuider]

9. Thanks. I needed that.

I almost got cheerful for a second reading about Kyle Sampson's travails over in GD.

+3 degrees by 2040. Unfortunately, it sounds believable.

[hatrack]

14. It's kind of like in Spinal Tap where the band visits Elvis' grave, isn't it?

Derek: Hey, watch the, watch the language, you're ?paying homage to the
King!

David: Oh sorry...well this is thoroughly depressing.

Nigel: It really puts perspective on things, though, doesn't it?

David: Too much, there's too much fucking perspective now.

[gulfcoastliberal]

10. "Methane levels have stayed about the same... wrong!

Atmospheric Concentrations

The historical record, based on analysis of air bubbles trapped in ice sheets, indicates that methane is more abundant in the Earth’s atmosphere now than at any time during the past 400,000 years (NRC, 2001 Exit EPA). Since 1750, global average atmospheric concentrations of methane have increased by 150 percent from approximately 700 to 1,745 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) in 1998 (IPCC, 2001b) Exit EPA. Over the past decade, although methane concentrations have continued to increase, the overall rate of methane growth has slowed. In the late 1970s, the growth rate was approximately 20 ppbv per year. In the 1980s, growth slowed to 9-13 ppbv per year. The period of 1990 to 1998 saw variable growth of between 0 and 13 ppbv per year (IPCC, 2001b) Exit EPA. A recent study by Dlugokencky, et. al. shows that atmospheric methane has been at a steady state of 1751 ppbv between 1999 and 2002. (See Figure 1, from Dlugokencky, et. al., 2003.)http://www.ghgonline.org/humaninfluencebig.htm Exit EPA

http://www.epa.gov/methane/scientific.html

[muriel_volestrangler]

15. Note: it's the *added* carbon dioxide that has a doubling time of 32 years

ie after you subtract the pre-industrial 280 ppm or so.

A paper that makes this explicit:

Fig. 2. Carbon dioxide records obtained from air samples at Mauna Loa (red), at the South Pole
(blue), and from the NOAA global cooperative air sampling network (black), which were smoothed
spatially and temporally to calculate global averages. Initial flask air samples at South Pole in
1957 and 1958 were obtained at three-month intervals. As the inset indicates, the deseasonalized,
postindustrial (278 ppm have been subtracted from the Mauna Loa values) trend in added
carbon dioxide has been increasing exponentially with a doubling time of about 32 years.

http://equake.geol.vt.edu/acourses/3114/global_warming/061114eos-climate.pdf

So no, this doesn't mean 760 ppm by 2040; or the associated +3 degrees. It will mean about another 100 ppm above the 'natural' value - so 480 ppm by 2040.

[GliderGuider]

17. Thanks for that.

I didn't think the whole Mauna Loa curve looked exponential, though I could see some evidence of an increase in slope over time. this explains it.

[hatrack]

18. Many thanks! Post in haste, repent at leisure.

Not that 480 by 2040 is comforting, per se, but . . .