Speaking of "Faster than expected"

[GliderGuider]

Has anyone been following the analysis and discussion of the state of the Ghawar field over on The Oil Drum?

For technically minded peak oil wonks it's a mind-bending experience. There's a strong contingent laying down numbers leading to the conclusion that the most prolific part of Ghawar, 'Ain Dar/Shedgum, is about to water out and turn off like a tap because of the effects of water flood and fractional flow (how oil-water mixes flow through porous rock in an oil reservoir). There are a number of opposing opinions, but the math seems to be on the side of the depletionists as far as I can tell.

I've never seen a discussion like it. If the depletionists are right, it's time to start biting our nails. I still think we'll know for sure what the Saudi situation is before September.

The threads to read are:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2393
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2426
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2437

[RoseMead]

1. I've been reading these discussions

It's fascinating, and very scary.

[bluerum]

2. Hmmmm. "Success in Iraq" just took on a whole new meaning. eom

[Strelnikov_]

3. Looks like they went to Warp 9.5 and Faisal (Scotty) was right

"Achh - the Ghawar, she can't take no more!"

[IDemo]

4. The Peak Oil discussion has reached a turning point, or should

Any further analysis of production by KSA and elsewhere, the water cut, geology, etc., all appear to be moot by now. The figures seem to point to global peaking having just occurred or happening now. And those figures would seem to indicate that we are on the slippery edge of a 'hard crash'.

Anyway, who do ya spose will win on Idol?

[phantom power]

5. This will really be something to see.

Not exactly in a good way, but really something, nonetheless.

[pscot]

6. For those interested in buying an insurance policy

Vanguards' energy Exchange Traded Fund (VDE) closed near its alltime high today. You can buy it through Vanguard or any broker. There's also an OIL fund, that's its name. It trades on the AMEX and sells share based on the spot price of West Texas crude. Other funds offer access to the alternative energy sector, though it's harder to find a pure play there. I know it's kind of like dining with the Devil, but that Vanguard fund has been petty good to me.

[IDemo]

7. I think I'm more interested in GLD at this time n/t

[GliderGuider]

8. It's amazing what's out there in the public domain, just waiting to have the dots connected

This morning's discovery and post of a 3D relief map of 'Ain Dar has added a whole new level to the discussion. That top red skin of dry oil in the simulation cross-section on the left looks like it's no more than 30 feet thick, and it's apparently mapping the very crest of the 'Ain Dar anticline. Shit.

[phantom power]

9. Lack of units and axes on these plots is making them hard for me to read

[GliderGuider]

11. Use the simulation's 200 foot scale to estimate the thinkness of the remaining oil layer

Each cell in the sim looks like it's about 15 feet thick, to me. Blue seems to be pretty well pure water, green is mostly water with a low proportion of oil, red is "dry" oil with a low proportion of water. The shape of the upper edge of the simulation is the top of the anticline (I think it's the bottom of the cap rock of the oil trap).

this implies that the water flood has pushed the oil up to the bottom of the cap rock, and the main oil-bearing strata are now fully recovered and flooded out. I don't see any evidence of a gas cap in the simulation, so it looks to me as though all that was left in 2004 was the 15 to 30 foot skin of oil at the top of the trap. The implication seems to be (though this is still being debated) that the lower portions of the field have all been flooded out. This is why it was so important to determine where in the field the cross-section was taken. If it was at a lower portion, then the crest could still be full of oil. The fact that it's been located at the crest of the field means that the chances the lower portions have already watered out is very high.

Keep in mind that this cross-section was simulated in 2004, and three years' worth of oil have been extracted since then. Given the progress of the water front from 1990 to 2004 as seen in other cross sections published in the thread, this means the whole field may be pretty well done.

[phantom power]

13. Thanks, I hadn't realized I was looking at an underground oil formation.

[hatrack]

10. It's a fascinating thread series

And what seems to get (at least a bit) lost in the discussion is that the newest data under discussion comes from the end of 2005.

The newest computer models in the discussion are from 2004.

To all of us here in 2007, it begs the question "So what's going on at the moment?"

[GliderGuider]

12. "So what's going on at the moment?" is what makes this comparison so scary:

That's the result of 14 years of extraction. It looks to me like they lost 10+' of pay per year in this area. The oil seems to going away at one hell of a rate.

[hatrack]

14. Is there a mathematical model for the gurgling noise that a straw makes . ..

When you get to the last of the malt at the bottom of the cup?

[htuttle]

15. Sure, it's real simple

0 = 0

[Dead_Parrot]

16. Ouch. nt