Rare Category 4 Hurricane In Arabian Sea, Heading For Oman

[hatrack]

Amazing Tropical Cyclone Gonu
Monday, June 04, 2007
June 4, 2007

--I can say with confidence that this forecaster has never seen the likes of this:

Ta Category-4 (130-kts, or 240 kph) hurricane over the northern Arabian Sea. The wind speeds are estimated (as of 0600 Hours GMT) by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). A look at full-disk infrared imagery (from the India Met. Dept.--IMD) helps to afford better perspective on TC Gonu and South Asia:

here is TC Gonu, unusually powerful and unusually far to the northwest--and it is headed towards the northwest. Thus, the first land in the path of Gonu, as it is now moving, would be easternmost Oman. And this is where the latest JTWC advisory takes Gonu--ashore southeast of Masqat. As far as numerical forecast models, the GFS is still handling Gonu poorly, but the ECMWF, which has been remarkably prescient on this amazing storm, is still taking a powerful low ashore in SE Oman--and even into interior eastern Arabia. I cannot rule out extreme, unusual weather in UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia to at least Al Ahsa and the southern/middle Najd (Riyadh).

Hopefully, more on Gonu later today (Monday).

EDIT/END

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/news-blogs.asp?blog=andrews&date=2007-06-04_11:02&month=6

Guys, if you could kick this, I'd appreciate it. This is really fucking weird.

On edit: Cat 5 status may have been yesterday, but I'm still looking for information from the Joint Typhoon Center.

Second edit - changed header from Cat 5 to Cat 4.

[hatrack]

1. Update from Joint Typhoon Center - Cat 4, Max Sustained 140

WTIO31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (GONU) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 19.9N 64.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 64.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.8N 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 21.4N 61.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 22.1N 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 23.0N 59.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 24.5N 58.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 63.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (GONU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 02A CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL INDIA. THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER A SECOND
RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE ARABIAN PENINSULA AS IT CONTINUES TO
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. A WEAKNESS EXISTS BETWEEN
THE TWO RIDGES DUE TO A SERIES OF MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
THAT CONTINUE TO TRANSIT NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WEAKNESS IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN IRAN AND THE STORM IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK INCREASINGLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF IRAN AFTER
TAU 48. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT THIS STRONG
WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE RIDGES AND INDICATE A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
INTO THE GULF OF OMAN. EGRR, GFS, ECMWF AND AFWA MM5 DEPICT A
STRONGER RIDGE OVER SAUDI ARABIA AND THEREFORE LESS OF A TURN
NORTHWARD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
AIDS. THE STORM CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNDER THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE, KEEPING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LOW. WESTWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE. THE STORM HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, BUT IS NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW
SIGNS OF WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER WATER WITH LOWER OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT, BUT MAINTAINS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. TC 02A IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO THE ENTRAINMENT
OF DRY AIR FROM THE ARABIAN PENINSULA AND THEN LAND EFFECTS AFTER
LANDFALL JUST AFTER TAU 36 ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF OMAN. DUE
TO LAND EFFECTS AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR, TC 02A IS NOT
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS BACK OVER THE GULF OF OMAN BY
TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 40 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.//

NNNN



https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/io0207web.txt

[phantom power]

3. weather underground has cat-5. winds of 160mph.

[hatrack]

4. Good thing this won't affect oil shipments or US Naval forces, huh?

Whiskey. Tango. Foxtrot.

[Strelnikov_]

12. Looks just right for pushing a big storm surge

into the Gulf.

This should be, well, interesting.

Looks like the easy motoring fiesta is about to GONU.

[Morgana LaFey]

20. What IS that?

that photo??

[htuttle]

21. It's a series of man-made islands off Dubai with billion-dollar properties on them...

...that is about to go underwater. But don't worry, they are building another one there that's shaped like a world map.

It's going to be underwater soon, too...

[Morgana LaFey]

27. Oh, tsk tsk

Thanks. It's an amazing thing, isn't it?

[Cooley Hurd]

42. The Palm Islands, while pretty cool looking, were ill-conceived...

...in about 60 years, they'll be completely inundated by water, unless they build giant levees around them (which, of course, will ruin the view from the beachfront properties).

[Up2Late]

35. Check it out, you can even see them on the medium resolution (MODIS) satellites now too.

Click the NASA link below, then click the link under one of the True color Thumbnails that says Pixel size: 250m

<http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets/?AERONET_Dhabi/2007154>

or click the link below, then click the link for the 250m resolution image at the top of the page that says:

View alternate pixel size: 1km | 500m | 250m
<http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets/?AERONET_Dhabi/2007154/AERONET_Dhabi.2007154.terra>

They are of the shore at Dubai

[DemReadingDU]

44. I was wondering about those 'palms'

Wouldn't the engineers who developed those billionaire estates, have considered that a cyclone might flood them?

[GliderGuider]

45. No, the engineers would not have considered cyclones.

There has never ever been one here before, as far as I can determine. Given that history, there would be little reason to plan for one.

[donsu]

49. when this picture was posted before I wondered, in a post,

how well these man made islands would do in a bad storm. now we can see.

[phantom power]

2. Beat me to it. Fucking weird, indeed.

[kestrel91316]

5. On the up side, GW-induced alterations in weather patterns could

bring more, and more frequent, rain to areas we now know as deserts.

I guess Oman will get all the rain we DIDN'T here in SoCal this past year.........

[ancient_nomad]

6. KnR....n/t

[donsu]

7. kick

nt

[phantom power]

8. Rare as this is, are the local building codes up to it?

[phantom power]

9. One more recommendation puts it on the GP

[mzteris]

10. so how much will oil be by the end of the week?

And will the fundies credit god with punishing the "muslims"; all while blaming the muslims for the price of gas....

[Captain Hilts]

11. wow! That's unusual! nt

[GliderGuider]

13. How rare are cyclonic storms in that part of the world?

I certainly can't remember one.

[Pawel K]

14. Can you explain for us how this is unusual?

I know this is really powerful but I know nothing about this sort of thing so more information would really help me out. Has there never been a storm that powerful in the indian ocean?

[Birthmark]

16. In the Indian Ocean?

Sure. Happens all the time. Hitting the Arabian Peninsula? Not so much. I don't remember that ever occurring, though I'm not encyclopedic on this issue.

[12345]

34. From what I've read, never.

Not even a Cat 1...

[Birthmark]

15. I don't recall ever seeing...

...a tropical system threatening the Arabian peninsula. Weird.

This is the third really weird tropical storm in the last few years. There was the one that hit the east coast of South America in 2004 ( https://courseware.e-education.psu.edu/public/meteo/upperlevel_lows.html ); the system that hit Portugal in the epic 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season; and now this one. Additionally, as I recall in 2005 one or two Atlantic systems made it to near Greenland before losing tropical characteristics.

I wonder if maybe our coverage isn't just getting better...or if we're seeing something more significant. I guess time will tell.

[Strelnikov_]

17. Strait of Hormuz Bathymetry

g

(Dump the extra g)

[GliderGuider]

18. That's some steep slope. W's soldiers won't be the only surge in the Middle East.

[Delphinus]

19. I know we had a build up of troops over in the

Middle East - a "show" of strength. Are they anywhere close to this?

[NickB79]

22. Are there significant oil-export/refinery facilities in that region?

Will this be the Middle East's equivalent of our Katrina, damaging oil production?

[GliderGuider]

23. There's a Gonu thread building up over on The Oil Drum

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2623

[phantom power]

25. Interesting. They don't build the offshore rigs in that region to withstand strong storms.

[babydollhead]

24. any HAARP opinions?

[GliderGuider]

26. Nah. It's Russian scalar energy weapons I tell ya!

Or maybe it's just Gaia telling us to pay attention to the oil...

[slackmaster]

28. K&R

It's got to be hairy for anyone in or near the Gulf of Oman right now.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/indian/storm/storm02A.html

Link to an awesome animation that takes a while to load:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/visir/indian/visirjava02A.html

[Up2Late]

29. Position up date and graphics

<http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/tracker/dynamic/200702A_0H.html>



So, does this qualify as "Climate Change" yet?

Btw. which are the scientifically accepted words for it and which is the RW Spin name? I forgot, is it "Climate Change" or "Global Warming?"

<http://www.alertnet.org/thefacts/reliefresources/TSR/200702A_02A.htm>

[phantom power]

30. RW spin is "natural cycles." Or "liberal scientist funding conspiracy."

[Up2Late]

32. Oh, here, I found it. It was "climate change" that Frank Luntz came up with...

He's the same guy who "re-branded" the Estate Tax as the "death tax" too.

Check it out, he talked about it very proudly in an interview for FRONTLINE's show "The Pursuaders"

<http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/persuaders/interviews/luntz.html>

You must admit that language can cloud as well as clarify.

If it doesn't describe what it's selling, then it is a very poor descriptor. If you've got a bad product, you shouldn't be selling it. And people like me have to have the discipline only to work for clients, corporations, political people, products, services, networks that we believe in and we want to see succeed. I don't believe that good language can obscure a bad product.

What about replacing "global warming" with "climate change?"

What is the difference? It is climate change. Some people call it global warming; some people call it climate change. What is the difference?

Look, for years, political people and lawyers -- who, by the way, are the worst communicators -- used the phrase "estate tax." And for years they couldn't eliminate it. The public wouldn't support it because the word "estate" sounds wealthy. Someone like me comes around and realizes that it's not an estate tax, it's a death tax, because you're taxed at death. And suddenly something that isn't viable achieves the support of 75 percent of the American people. It's the same tax, but nobody really knows what an estate is. But they certainly know what it means to be taxed when you die. I argue that is a clarification; that's not an obfuscation.

The language of America changed with the election of Bill Clinton, because with all due respect to my friends on the Republican side, Bill Clinton is the best communicator of the last 50 years. He felt your pain. Now, I'd argue that he caused your pain, but at least he felt it while he was causing it. When Bill Clinton spoke, his words were so good, and they were spoken with such passion. And that biting of the lower lip and the squinching of the eyes -- you just couldn't turn away. Bill Clinton made Frank Luntz because Bill Clinton discovered the power and the influence of words. Now, I'd like to think that I apply them to clients, to philosophies, to products and services and corporations that I believe in, that are good. I don't argue with you that words can sometimes be used to confuse, but it's up to the practitioners of the study of language to apply them for good and not for evil. It is just like fire; fire can heat your house or burn it down....

(edit)

...I believe in the people who work at the corporations that I work for, and the political people. The best example is Rudy Giuliani. What have I done that's wrong if I provide someone like a Rudy Giuliani or a corporation like a Pfizer language that helps them explain or educate? I've simplified the process for them which allows them to explain. What did they say in there ? They kept coming back to it again and again: What they want from their elected officials, from the CEOs, from the elite of America is clarity. They said it again and again: "Be clear with us. Be straight with us. Common sense; clarity; down the road, look us straight in the eye." That's exactly what I do. I help them do that....

<http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/persuaders/interviews/luntz.html>

(the video is available on line, if you haven't seen it yet, you need to check it out!)

Link to the video:
<http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/persuaders/view/>

[phantom power]

33. I think "climate change" is a good phrase. I use it all the time.

It encompasses the idea that the particular changes we will see are going to depend on location. It also encompasses large-scale cooling events, like Younger-dryas events, that may transpire as consequences of initial warming.

[NNadir]

36. Me too.

The particulars of different zones may not be consistent with warming. Frankly I don't think anyone knows for certain what is going to happen, but we know it's going to be major.

[Demeter]

31. The GWBush! He's a Magnet For Hurricanes

Must be all that hot air, seeking its father.

[RestoreGore]

37. Strange Indeed

http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&article=5

Recommended.

[NNadir]

38. As best I can tell, the MSM could not care less, but, thank goodness...

they're all over the story about Paris Hilton going to jail.

[emmadoggy]

39. Kick for the freakiness.

:wow:

[Liberty Belle]

40. Wouldn't it be fitting if it struck Halliburton in Dubai?

[Shoelace]

41. Halliburton just moved headquarters to Dubai (from Houston)

way to go Helliburton!!lol. From the frying pan into the fire eh? A little karma for y'all???

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates Mar 11, 2007 (AP)
Oil services giant Halliburton Co. will soon shift its corporate headquarters from Houston to the Mideast financial powerhouse of Dubai, chief executive Dave Lesar announced Sunday.

"Halliburton is opening its corporate headquarters in Dubai while maintaining a corporate office in Houston," spokeswoman Cathy Mann said in an e-mail to The Associated Press. "The chairman, president and CEO will office from and be based in Dubai to run the company from the UAE."

Lesar, speaking at an energy conference in nearby Bahrain, said he will relocate to Dubai from Texas to oversee Halliburton's intensified focus on business in the Mideast and energy-hungry Asia, home to some of the world's most important oil and gas markets.

"As the CEO, I'm responsible for the global business of Halliburton in both hemispheres and I will continue to spend quite a bit of time in an airplane as I remain attentive to our customers, shareholders and employees around the world," Lesar said. "Yes, I will spend the majority of my time in Dubai."

Lesar's announcement appears to signal one of the highest-profile moves by a U.S. corporate leader to Dubai, an Arab boomtown where free-market capitalism has been paired with some of the world's most liberal tax, investment and residency laws.
>>

Federal investigators last month alleged Halliburton was responsible for $2.7 billion of the $10 billion in contractor waste and overcharging in Iraq.

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=2941931




:nopity:

[Up2Late]

43. This is interesting, Check out the temperature of the outer cloud bands of the Cyclone

I don't know if this type of data is usually available for Tropical Cyclones and Hurricanes, but this one just happened to pass though this NASA satellites monitoring zone:

<http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets/?AERONET_Dhabi>

Click the Thumbnails on the right at the link above.

[phantom power]

46. Any news about the storm surge? I found remarkably little coverage even on the web.

[uppityperson]

47. read somewhere rumors of some Indians rescued from drowning. Try these links, articles

pictures
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_pictures/6725655.stm

Omani blogger
http://sleeplessinmuscat.blogspot.com/2007/06/updated-news-bulletin-part-9-sftermath.html

Local news:
http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticleNew.asp?xfile=data/middleeast/2007/June/middleeast_June103.xml§ion=middleeast&col=
Good article

http://gulfnews.com homepage has a video too, or here for Gonu page http://www.gulfnews.com/indepth/gonu/index.html

http://www.gulfnews.com/nation/Environment/10130433.html

Fujairah: Huge tides and increasingly high waves are battering the east coast of UAE even as panic and curiosity spread among the residents. Authorities have ordered the evacuation of residents in some areas of Fujairah and Kalba, laying on buses to move people into temporary refuge centres at a number of local schools.

The ports at Fujairah and Khor Fakkan have also been closed because of the heavy weather. The main route in and out of the east coast town of Kalba has been shut down and residents, in areas close to the advancing sea water, have been ordered to evacuate their homes.

The continuous surge of seawater is threatening to overwhelm homes and government buildings, especially in the area of Al Nighelat, despite the barriers of sand erected to halt the storm tide...(more@link)

[phantom power]

48. Thanks. Looks like it made landfall as cat-1. Better than predicted.