Managing Iraq's collapse

[bemildred]

A good read on issues in post-COW Iraq.

As the United States gradually retreats from Iraq, the stakes for Iran rise accordingly. The long-awaited Iraq Study Group report - which will likely shape US policy in Iraq for the next two years - will start this process in earnest.

The opportunities for Iran are numerous, but the potential risks could be calamitous. For nearly four years, Iran has sat back while the US repeatedly blundered in Iraq, all the while exploiting the situation with almost breathless subtlety and precision. This is likely to change as the US presence fades, thereby exposing the Islamic Republic to the chaos that is tearing Iraq apart.

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Given the near-inevitability of the fragmentation of Iraq, a much deeper understanding of Iranian interests in Iraq is required. Moreover, it means that some of these interests must be either revised or relinquished altogether. In short, the matrix of interests and risks that informed Iranian attitudes toward the US-led intervention in March 2003 are now seriously outdated.

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Long-term Iranian influence in Iraq requires a stable regime in Baghdad. This is why the Iranians should be deeply fearful of the sectarian slaughter that is tearing Iraq apart. Moreover, the Iranians would do well to appreciate the extent of anti-Iran feelings in Iraq. General distrust of Iran is widespread in Iraq, much of it the product of nearly 40 years of relentless anti-Iranian propaganda by the Ba'athists. Given the chaos in Iraq, much of what the Iranians have built can unravel very quickly. Furthermore, any brazen interference in Iraqi affairs risks provoking the ugliest forms of Iraqi anti-Iranianism.

Asia Times