The next horror in Somalia

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For more than 16 years, Somalia has existed without the pretense of a central government, surviving largely on foreign aid and remittances from its overseas diaspora, the best and brightest young Somalis. With the fading of the seasonal rains in December, the Somalis are preparing once again to inflict their intra-clan squabbling on their neighbors. Meanwhile, the neighbors are preparing a proxy war, and they plan to fight one another to the last Somali.

Experts call Somalia a failed state. This is a sophism. Somalia was a failed state in 1990 under the last central government of the mildly insane Mohamed Siad Barre. Nowadays, one could call Somalia a space between countries. Or simply a feral nation. This is the place that perfected the practice of extorting cash from international aid organizations in return for allowing the aid groups the privilege of feeding other starving Somalis. (Gangsters R Us, with Third World panache.) When the United Nations tried to intervene and establish a central government in 1993 (an admittedly naive effort), the Somalis united just long enough to drive off the foreigners and resume their embrace of warlords and clans.

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When the big, ugly regional war breaks out, the Islamists, with the help of Eritrean advisors, are likely to hold their own. Now add in your odd Somali warlord, drug-crazed clan gunmen and the Somali history of atrocities and you have a real mess in the Horn of Africa. Fighting will probably spill into Kenya, and destitute refugees will surge across East Africa. Bottom line: It is likely by this time next year that the Horn of Africa will host its own little Taliban wannabe, more or less in control of Somalia and at war with its neighbors. Along the way, there will be a lot of dead people and suffering refugees.

Although this is far away, and may not happen to anyone you know personally, it is going to become a concern of the U.S. soon. An Islamic fundamentalist haven on the Horn of Africa is more than a tragedy for the long-suffering Africans; it is a threat to the oil routes that fuel the West and pass just offshore. Recent domestic terrorist attacks have already shaken the House of Saud's iron grip on its population; a sanctuary where its fundamentalist enemies can regroup only a few hours across the Red Sea would be a dagger at its heart.

LA Times

[Kagemusha]

1. The UN was insane to authorize a force to protect the interim govt.

A government in name only that does not control its country and never was more than an "interim" government isn't going to past and the grandstanding will do nothing but to promote that regional war being warned of above. (Correctly, too.) I must say I am amused by Somalia being called a "feral nation". I'm sure Somalis might be insulted so the term will not gain wide use, but... well, it's not quite "truthiness", but it does seem to get the point across faster than "failed state".

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2. Not much respect for local customs there, no.

I thought his slant was interesting, and he says clearly that he is CIA. His conclusion that we need to send more guns, while admitting there is no shortage of guns, was not convincing to me either.

[Kagemusha]

3. What they need is a cure for the attraction of Islam to low-born Africans

Good luck.

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4. LOL. Too bad it's not really funny.

I'm sort of wondering if that weasel in Ethiopia is going to get over his head with this. If he gets too involved in Somalia, the Eritrians are likely to see it as an opportunity for more direct action.