"The Rise of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization"

[nodular]

Council on Foreign Relations


This article gives some info on a subject I have been thinking about---US policy in Central Asia and the linkage between that and the increasingly strong defense posture of Russia.

Central Asia and the periphery of Russia, of course, are the same place. So, from Russia's point of view---and I think America's point of view as well, US Central Asian policy has been an attempt to contain Russia.

I always felt this was an ill-conceived, over-reaching US policy. In recent years, it seems like most of US policy has had those characteristics.

Now the rise of the SCO (see below) seems to indicate that the US policy in the region has failed. I think the dynamics of this failure are similar to our failure in Iraq. An over-idealistic attempt to create "democracy everywhere" (part of the Bush doctrine, partially an outgrowth from neocon philosophy---but with the realism removed.) This region used to be ruled by pro-Soviet regimes. In recent years, many of these have been overthrown by the "color revolutions" (see below) and replaced by "pro-US" "democracies".

Only the regimes have ended up being not very democratic from the start---and have now turned against the US. The net achievement of US Central Asian policy has been to generate anti-US hostility in Russia, and hasten the strengthening and importance of the SCO, which also involves China and may soon include Iran.

In other words, an unrealistic, absurdly idealistic policy has served mainly to prod the Bear with a sharp stick and help coalesce the region into an anti-US block. I think we have to view Putin's recent aggressive statements in this light. Russia feels that we have impinged on their sovereignty by trying to control regimes on their very borders---former Soviet republics. Is this feeling so unreasonable? Does the "goody two shoes" commitment to democracy (which always seems to go by the boards in places like this) really justify trying to encircle Russia with a ring of bases? Is it reasonable to expect them to believe that these base only face the Middle East, and are irrelevant to Russia? I don't believe that myself.



http://www.cfr.org/publication/10883/rise_of_the_shanghai_cooperation_organization.html?breadcrumb=%2Fregion%2Fpublication_list%3Fid%3D264

June 12, 2006

"Leaders of the six states—China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan—comprising the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will meet in Shanghai June 15 to discuss security issues in Central Asia. Celebrating its five-year anniversary, the SCO began in 2001 as a confidence-building mechanism to resolve border disputes but in recent years has risen in stature and scope. It made headlines last July by issuing a time line for U.S. forces to pull out of Uzbekistan, a move that led some to say the organization had emerged as a powerful anti-U.S. bulwark in the region. Others say that because of inherent frictions between its two main members, Russia and China, the SCO is unlikely to pose a threat to U.S. interests in Central Asia. Meanwhile, talks are under way to amend the group's mission statement to include, among other things, increased military cooperation, intelligence sharing, and counter-terrorism drills. There is growing speculation that Iran, currently one of four observers to the SCO, may soon join the organization. Its president is expected to be present at the Shanghai summit.

"Originally called the Shanghai Five, the SCO formed in 1996 largely to demilitarize the border between China and the former Soviet Union. In 2001, the organization added Uzbekistan and renamed itself the SCO. Mongolia won observer status in 2004; Iran, Pakistan, and India became observers the following year. The SCO has since rose in regional prominence, tackling issues of trade, counter-terrorism, and drug trafficking. The organization, which unlike the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is not yet a mutual defense pact, is expected to hold joint military exercises in Tajikistan later this year, as well as counter-terrorism drills in Russia’s Ural Mountains next year. Some experts cite a convergence of interests among members in recent years, including improved ties between China and Russia and the perceived threat posed by U.S. forces in the region. Others, including Lieutenant General William E. Odom, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, say the SCO is being used by Russia and China as a vehicle to assert their influence in Central Asia and curb U.S. access to the region’s vast energy supplies.

"SCO members say U.S. bases in the region, established in the wake of 9/11, were not meant to be permanent and were only installed to assist the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan. China and Russia have chafed at the U.S. military presence in Central Asia, an energy-rich region both consider within their sphere of influence. After uprisings in Ukraine, Georgia, and Kyrgyzstan unseated leaders loyal to the Kremlin, Russia views the U.S. presence in the post-Soviet region, including the eastward expansion of NATO and its growing presence in Afghanistan, with increasing suspicion. Many in Moscow argue these so-called color revolutions were the work of U.S.-funded nongovernmental organizations. Beijing sees the U.S. military presence along its western border as part of Washington's strategy to contain China, experts say.

"On July 5, 2005, the SCO issued a declaration implicitly calling for the United States, though not explicitly, to set a time line for withdrawing its military forces from Karshi-Khanabad Air Base, located in southern Uzbekistan. But experts say relations between Tashkent and Washington were already on the skids. After 9/11, Uzbekistan became a strategic partner of the United States, cooperating with American forces in joint counter-terrorism exercises in return for security guarantees and military equipment. Yet a May 2005 uprising in Andijan province, followed by a brutal crackdown by the Uzbek authorities, led to sharp criticisms from Washington. The Uzbek government also grew suspicious of U.S. involvement in pro-democracy revolutions in Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan. Hence, the Uzbek government ended its military cooperation with the United States and moved to eject its forces from Karshi-Khandabad. The SCO declaration, most experts say, merely accelerated the withdrawal of U.S. forces, completed by the end of 2005."