Upgrade or Downgrade? Iran's Options vis-a-vis the Nuclear Deadline

[bemildred]

Part I

An Iranian eye view of the current "crisis".

A clue to the contradictions of Iranian diplomacy; yesterday just as Iran's envoy
to the UN atomic agency was informing the world of Iran's intention to reduce its
cooperation, at the UN a different cord was being struck by the Foreign Minister
assuring the world's leaders that "Iran's cooperation with the IAEA is active,
upgrading and transparent." The question is, of course, which side will have the
upper hands by the end of October set as the deadline by the IAEA for Iran to
prove its nuclear intentions?

For now, at least, the seemingly contradictory reaction by Iran is neither irrational
nor counter-productive, given the complex requirements of a fluid response to a
"quasi crisis," to quote another foreign minister official, generated by the
September 12th resolution of the Governing Board of the IAEA. Yet, this may well
degenerate into a full-scale crisis if the combined responses of Iran do not
measure up to a prudent policy satisfying the demand levels touching on power,
prestige, sovereignty, and other key variables of Iranian foreign policy and if,
instead, reflect a schizoid, bifurcated approach devoid of coherence and internal
unity.

By all indications, part of the problem stems from Iran's domestic politics featuring
divergent nuclear aspirations, with the moderates keen on limiting Iran to peaceful
nuclear technology and some of their hard-line opponents seeking to telescope
the nuclear buildup to weapons technology, citing regional proliferation and the
national security needs of Iran, such as with respect to the value of a nuclear
deterrence of the U.S. power breathing monster-like at Iran's neck at all fronts. To
his credit, President Khatami has taken a lead in reiterating Iran's peaceful
intentions with the nuclear know-how and in disavowing the nuclear weapons as
"amoral." The pro-Khatami factions including in the Majlis have similarly called on
the government to sign the IAEA's Additional Protocol which calls for more
intrusive inspections. They are opposed, however, by an array of hawkish voices
who have demanded Iran's withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty and or
significant reduction in cooperation with the IAEA.

While the Iranian hawks' prescription for action has been dismissed by certain
pundits as excessive or illogical, it is not without legitimacy however,
notwithstanding the importance of standing up to the U.S.'s manipulation of the
IAEA and the nuclear double standards that ignores proliferation in other parts of
the Middle East and seeks to deprive Iran of even peaceful nuclear reactors.
Indeed, what a sad spectacle that while the Bush Administration has
aggressively pursued the proliferation of a new generation of nuclear weapons,
contrary to the U.S.'s NPT commitments, at the UN today President Bush could
self-deludingly call on the UN "to criminalize the proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction" through a new Security Council resolution! But, of course, this is not
an administration even slightly bothered by its accumulation of distorted facts and
"a disgraceful record" to paraphrase a recent blistering criticism by the
Massachusetts senator, Ted Kennedy, who called Bush's Iraq policy "adrift" and
accused Bush of squandering over one billion dollars a month in bribing other
countries to contribute troops to Iraq.

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