Obama's New Policies: the Importance of Afghanistan and how Russia Fits In

[nodular]

Obama promised to move in new directions in foreign-policy. He has been as good as his word. One campaign promise was to quickly wind down the war in Iraq and strengthen our effort in Afghanistan. He has kept these promises, but I will confess that I initially did not fully understand the reasoning behind the Afghan buildup. This uncertainty was cleared up by an e-mail I received from Stratfor. Below I have reproduced part of an e-mail I received from Stratfor on this subject (I am on their free e-mail list).

The e-mail explains in some detail how Pakistan is now the central base for Al Qaeda. Clearly, our main way to get access to the Al Qaeda forces in Pakistan is through Afghanistan. Another development that has been little noted so far may become important later--- the offer from the Russians to provide troops in Afghanistan. In this regard, it is interesting that Hillary Clinton (under Obama's direction) has moved quite aggressively to start the process of improving relations with Russia. Toward this end, we have begun a fast-track negotiation with the Russians to extend the START agreement on nuclear weapons reduction which expires at the end of this year. This is something that is important for the Russians that the United States has neglected in recent years.

One of Obama's campaign ideas was getting significant help from NATO in Afghanistan, but it is pretty clear that this is not going to happen. The British have made it clear that, while they will increase their troops, it will be a very small increase. The Canadians have stated that they will be out by 2011. France and Germany clearly will not increase their Afghanistan commitment. The only possibility might be Poland, which would be a trivial amount of troops in any case.

In this regard, the Russian offer seems quite significant. The US could really use some help with the buildup in Afghanistan--- especially in light of the combat-weariness the country is experiencing after years spent fighting in Iraq. In addition to beginning the START negotiations, the US is seeking an understanding on the antimissile system in Europe in terms of connecting it to the Russians exerting a positive influence on the Iranians. In this overall positive political environment, the chance for Russian help on the ground in Afghanistan looks pretty good, in my opinion. The quote from the Stratfor e-mail below makes clear how big the stakes are in Afghanistan, and why we need to follow this through







"Hence the recent visit by Taliban officials to Saudi Arabia and the trips made by Riyadh’s intelligence chief, Prince Muqrin bin Abdel-Aziz, to Pakistan and Afghanistan. The Saudi monarch, King Abdullah, is also rumored to be personally involved behind the scenes in efforts to pressure Taliban leaders to break free from al Qaeda. But as in the past, the Saudis need help from their allies in Islamabad and Rawalpindi, and here is where they are running into problems. A weak and threatened Pakistani state means that before working with the Pakistanis on the Afghan Taliban, Riyadh has to help Pakistan combat its own Taliban problem, which the Saudis currently are attempting. The Saudis obviously have much to offer the Pakistanis, in terms of both cash and experience. They also have the religious cachet that other Pakistan allies, such as the Americans and the British, lack, giving them the ability to broach ideological subjects. However, as is the case with the Afghan Ta liban, the Saudis will have to get the Pakistani Taliban to part ways with al Qaeda and are working hard to drive a wedge between Pakistani militants and their foreign guests.

"These efforts to divide the Taliban from the global jihadists are happening not only during the plush, Saudi-sponsored trips for Taliban members to conduct Hajj and Umrah in the kingdom. Following a strategy similar to what they did in Iraq, the Saudis and their agents are meeting with Taliban commanders on the ground in Pakistan and Afghanistan to twist arms and offer cash. They also are coordinating very closely with the Pakistani and Afghan authorities who are leading the campaign against the jihadists. For example, Rehman Malik, the Pakistani adviser to the prime minister on the interior (Pakistan’s de facto terrorism czar), traveled to Saudi Arabia in January at the invitation of Saudi Interior Minister Prince Naif bin Abdul-Aziz to discuss improving counterterrorism cooperation between the two countries. Many of the 85 most-wanted militants on the list recently released by the Saudi government are believed to be in Pakistan, and the Saudis are working with Malik an d the Pakistanis to arrest those militants and return them to Saudi Arabia.

"Bin Laden, al-Zawahiri, et al., are well aware of these Saudi moves, which they see as a threat to their very existence. When asked in a November 2008 interview what he thought of the Saudi efforts to mediate between Afghan President Hamid Karzai and the Taliban, al-Zawahiri responded that the Saudi efforts pointed out “the historical role of saboteur played by the House of Saud in ruining the causes of the Muslim ummah, and how they represent the agents whom the Crusader West uses to disperse the ummah’s energy.”

"The al Qaeda leadership has nowhere to go if circumstances become untenable for them in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Caught between U.S., Pakistani and Saudi forces, the last thing al Qaeda wants is to lose local support from the Taliban. In other words, Pakistan is their final battleground, and any threat to their continued haven in Pakistan poses a clear and present danger to the organization — especially if the Saudis can play a pivotal role in persuading the Taliban in Afghanistan also to turn against them."

For more, see my blog potpourri at http://random-potpourri.blogspot.com/

[soryang]

1. Stratfor is not authoritative

Except in the sense that it caters to the corporate establishment. Might as well watch network news. For example, Stratfor rationalizes torture and then repeats the 911 mythology about al qaeda as justification. People who listen to stratfor will never do anything except support the US military industrial complex in whatever cockeyed scheme they engage in.